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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
| By: | James J. Heckman (University of Chicago and IZA and also NBER); Haihan Tian (The University of Chicago); Zijian Zhang (Columbia University); Jin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Dynamic complementarity is the concept that past investments that lead to higher stocks of skill at one age promote the growth of skills from investment at that age. We define and provide evidence on dynamic complementarity using unique Chinese data from a home visiting program for young children targeted to parents in rural China. In addition, we investigate growth in learning due to innate, parental, and environmental factors that occur in the absence of any formal intervention. |
| JEL: | C1 C5 D83 J01 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-31 |
| By: | Milagros Onofri (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Raquel Fernández (NYU & NBER & CEPR); Azul Menduiña (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0368 |
| By: | Faberman, Jason (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Mueller, Andreas (University of Zurich); Sahin, Aysegül (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies gender gaps in labor-market outcomes, with a focus on job ladder dynamics. We show that women experience substantially lower wage growth conditional on prior wages despite nearly identical job-to-job transition rates for men and women. To reconcile these observations, we document gender differences in the valuation of nonwage job amenities and in job search behavior, and develop a multi-dimensional job-ladder model with endogenous search effort where workers value both wages and amenities. The model allows for gender heterogeneity in separation rates, search effort, the value of nonemployment, amenity valuations, and bargaining power, enabling a joint analysis of gender wage and employment gaps. A quantitative decomposition shows that differences in preferences for nonwage amenities account for nearly 40 percent of the gender pay gap. Differences in the value of nonemployment and bargaining power explain most of the remainder, with only a limited role for differences in separation rates and search behavior. Finally, we show that increases in job amenities — such as the expansion of remote work — raise the gender wage gap while reducing gender differences in employment. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, job search, job amenities, on-the-job search |
| JEL: | J16 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18418 |
| By: | Manning, Alan; Petrongolo, Barbara |
| Abstract: | We investigate employer monopsony power in local labour markets in the UK. We propose a model in which market power stems from idiosyncratic worker preferences over non-wage attributes of jobs, including the commuting distance. This set-up delivers point-specific, overlapping local labour markets. The resulting concentration index reflects the intensity of commuting flows between local areas, and is lower than the conventional index based on self-contained, non-overlapping areas because commuting across local areas expand workers’ outside options. We estimate that employment concentration in local labour markets was slightly falling over the past 2 decades. The model-based concentration index is negatively correlated to local wages and performs better than other purely local concentration measures. However, in quantitative terms, the observed fall in concentration can predict only a negligible increase in wages. |
| Keywords: | job search; reference dependence; reservation wages; wage cyclicality |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137500 |