Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.5% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes so far in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Venezuela amid President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence campaigns. Early-year escalations, including joint US-Israel airstrikes sparking the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a large-scale operation in Venezuela on January 3, rapidly pushed the tally to seven, but the race remains tight with eight at 23.4% and nine at 14.4% due to sustained operations in existing theaters like record AFRICOM airstrikes in Somalia and ongoing CENTCOM strikes into Iran as recently as April 5. Potential separation could arise from new kinetic actions against Mexican cartels, Colombian traffickers, or further Middle East proxies such as Lebanon, versus de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$944,928 交易量
$944,928 交易量
2026-12-31
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
4%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15个以上
2%
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$944,928 交易量
$944,928 交易量
2026-12-31
6
$420,356 交易量
10%
7
$6,644 交易量
32%
8
$88,217 交易量
23%
9
$11,332 交易量
14%
10
$11,829 交易量
9%
11
$9,436 交易量
4%
12
$28,360 交易量
3%
13
$47,166 交易量
2%
14
$42,028 交易量
1%
15个以上
$119,718 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.5% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes so far in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Venezuela amid President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence campaigns. Early-year escalations, including joint US-Israel airstrikes sparking the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a large-scale operation in Venezuela on January 3, rapidly pushed the tally to seven, but the race remains tight with eight at 23.4% and nine at 14.4% due to sustained operations in existing theaters like record AFRICOM airstrikes in Somalia and ongoing CENTCOM strikes into Iran as recently as April 5. Potential separation could arise from new kinetic actions against Mexican cartels, Colombian traffickers, or further Middle East proxies such as Lebanon, versus de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$944,928结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.5% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes so far in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Venezuela amid President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence campaigns. Early-year escalations, including joint US-Israel airstrikes sparking the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a large-scale operation in Venezuela on January 3, rapidly pushed the tally to seven, but the race remains tight with eight at 23.4% and nine at 14.4% due to sustained operations in existing theaters like record AFRICOM airstrikes in Somalia and ongoing CENTCOM strikes into Iran as recently as April 5. Potential separation could arise from new kinetic actions against Mexican cartels, Colombian traffickers, or further Middle East proxies such as Lebanon, versus de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$944,928结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.5% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes so far in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Venezuela amid President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence campaigns. Early-year escalations, including joint US-Israel airstrikes sparking the 2026 Iran war on February 28 and a large-scale operation in Venezuela on January 3, rapidly pushed the tally to seven, but the race remains tight with eight at 23.4% and nine at 14.4% due to sustained operations in existing theaters like record AFRICOM airstrikes in Somalia and ongoing CENTCOM strikes into Iran as recently as April 5. Potential separation could arise from new kinetic actions against Mexican cartels, Colombian traffickers, or further Middle East proxies such as Lebanon, versus de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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