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Gujarat Pipavav Port Investment Overview

Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL) is engaged in port development and operations in Gujarat, India. It handles containers, bulk cargo, and liquids. GPPL is promoted by APM Terminals, one of the world's largest port operators. APM Terminals provides expertise to GPPL for efficient operations. GPPL expanded its container handling capacity recently and aims to increase cargo volumes. The analyst recommends buying GPPL given its strong parentage and growth prospects.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
178 views14 pages

Gujarat Pipavav Port Investment Overview

Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL) is engaged in port development and operations in Gujarat, India. It handles containers, bulk cargo, and liquids. GPPL is promoted by APM Terminals, one of the world's largest port operators. APM Terminals provides expertise to GPPL for efficient operations. GPPL expanded its container handling capacity recently and aims to increase cargo volumes. The analyst recommends buying GPPL given its strong parentage and growth prospects.

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Dinesh Choudhary
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© © All Rights Reserved
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INVESTMENT IDEA 06 Feb 2017

PCG RESEARCH
Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL)
Industry CMP Recommendation Add on dips to Band Targets Time Horizon
BUY at CMP and add on
Marine Port & Services Rs. 150 Rs. 133 140 Rs. 177-195 3-4 Quarters
Declines

HDFC Scrip Code GUJPIP Company Background


BSE Code 533248
Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited (GPPL) is Gujarat based company engaged in the business of port
NSE Code GPPL development and operations at Pipavav Port. The Company's Port Pipavav is located approximately 150
Bloomberg GPPV nautical miles from Nhava Sheva in Mumbai. The Company offers cargo handling facilities for container,
bulk, break bulk and liquid cargo. It handles a range of bulk and break bulk cargo, such as coal, cement,
CMP as on 03 Feb 17 150 clinker, fertilizers, steel, iron ore, agri-products, salt and soda ash. In addition, Pipavav handles all
maritime services in-house, without any third-party operators. The Company offers maritime services, such
Equity Capital (Rs Cr) 483.4
as maritime personnel, including harbor master, pilots, control room operators, mooring crew and motor
Face Value (Rs) 10 launch crew; towage, including one launch and tugboats, and port control facilities, including radar, very
high frequency (VHF), Navigational Telex (NAVTEX), automatic weather station and automatic information
Equity O/S (Cr) 48.3
system (AIS).
Market Cap (Rs cr)
7270 GPPL is promoted by AP Moller Maersk group) APM Terminals is an international container
Book Value (Rs) 41 terminal operating company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Pipavav Port is located in
Saurashtra-Gujarat, at distance of 90 km South of Amreli, 15 km South of Rajula and 140 km South West
Avg. 52 Week of Bhavnagar. The port handles both bulk, container and liquid cargo.
593641
Volumes
52 Week High 197 Company entered into a concession agreement with Gujarat Maritime Board and the Government of Gujarat
on September - 1998, and a supplementary concession agreement dated June 2, 2006, pursuant to which it
52 Week Low 121
has been granted the right to develop and operate APM Terminals Pipavav for a period of 30 years until
September 2028. GPPL is one of the principal gateways on the West coast of India and is located in the
Saurashtra region of Gujarat. In 2000, the port formed a Joint Venture with Indian Railways to start
Shareholding Pattern (%) Pipavav Rail Corporation Limited wherein GPPL holds 38.8% stake. It started commercial operations in
Promoters 43 2002.

Institutions 51 In 2005 APM Terminals acquired majority stake. Major projects were completed in 2009 and the company
Non Institutions 06 came out with an IPO at Rs 46 per share and had raised ~Rs 500cr from the offer and was listed on
Bourses in 2010.

PCG Risk Rating* Yellow


* Refer to Rating explanation

Kushal Rughani
[Link]@[Link]
Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |1
PCG RESEARCH

Investment Rationale

Strong Parentage APM Terminals

AP Moller Maersk group) APM Terminals is an international container terminal operating company
headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. It is one of the world's largest port and terminal operators as well
as providing cargo support and container Inland Services, and is the largest port and terminal operating
company in terms of overall geographic scope. It operates 72 port and terminal facilities in 39 countries on
five continents, with nine new port projects in development as well as 140 Inland Services operations
providing container transportation, management, maintenance and repair in 39 countries, for an overall
global presence of 69 countries. Company provides Port Management and Operations to over 60 Shipping
Companies which serve the worlds leading Importers and Exporters of Containerized, Bulk, Liquid bulk,
General cargo and other commodities.

APM Terminals had posted revenues of US$ 4.2 bn and generated profit of USD $654 mn in 2015, The
number of containers handled by APM Terminals (weighted by APM Terminals ownership interest) decreased
by 6.0% compared with 2014, to 36 million TEUs. The decrease was mainly due to the divestment of
operations in Charleston, South Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; and Houston, Texas, in the USA, and the
companys one third share of the MedCenter Container Terminal, in Gioia Tauro, Italy. The continuing
expansion of the APM Terminals Global Terminal Network, however, was accelerated through the several
significant acquisitions and new projects won.

In March 2016, APM Terminals completed the US$ 1 bn acquisition of Spanish-based Group Maritim TCBs
port and rail interests. The acquisition has added 8 terminals with a combined 2 million TEU equity-weighted
volumes to the APM Terminals Global Terminal Network, expanding the portfolio to 72 operating ports, across
69 countries.

Bulk Cargo Operations

The Dry Bulk cargo volumes at Pipavav continue to be driven primarily by Coal and Fertilizer albeit a
significantly reduced Coal imports due to lower imports and the existing rail freight differential issues
accentuated by every hike in rail freight. The Port handled 2.47 Million MT during the year ended March 2016
against 4.64 Million MT during the fifteen months period ended 31 March 2015. On Liquid cargo front, the
storage terminals of all three customers have been commissioned during the year. The Port handled over
700,000 MT during the year ended March 2016 as against about 300,000 MT during the fifteen month period
March 2015. Company continues its focus on the Core Business of Port Development and Operations and has
adopted a landlord model for handling RORO vessels similar to the handling of Liquid Cargo vessels wherein,

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |2


PCG RESEARCH

company has entered into agreement for providing land on lease and the lessee does the capital investment
for the business.

The Company has invested about Rs.360cr to expand its Container handling capacity from 0.85 Million TEUs
to 1.35 Million TEUs. The old STS Cranes have been shipped out and the new Cranes are operational. The
Container Yard capacity is being progressively increased based on the storage requirement. An old bulk cargo
handling crane has been replaced with a new Gottwald Crane. There are no new further investments
envisaged.

Expect Revenue/PAT cagr of 8%/12% over FY16-19E

The Company has invested about Rs.360cr to expand its Container handling capacity from 0.85 Million TEUs
to 1.35 Million TEUs. We expect company to post 8% revenue cagr over FY16-19E along with 690bps margin
expansion and would post 63.8% in FY19. Company has already witnessed healthy increase in margin and
posted 59.7% in 9M FY17. Better products mix and operating performance would lead to 11.8% PAT cagr
over FY16-19E. We expect company to post EPS of Rs 6.7 in FY19E. At CMP of Rs 150, stock trades at 22x of
FY19E earnings and 13.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA. No investment would be made in expanding capacities of
handling other commodities. GPPL would take a call on further capacity addition once capacity utilization
reaches the 80% mark. So, till then, we do not expect any major capex for GPPL, except for maintenance
capex of Rs 70cr to 90cr per annum over FY17 to FY19E. Considering company has not planned major capex
in the medium term and port handling being lucrative and high margin business. We rate GPPL as BUY at
CMP of Rs 150 and add on declines to Rs 140 and Rs 133 range with sequential price targets of Rs 177 and
Rs 195 ( based upon 29x FY19E earnings and 17.2x EV/EBITDA).

Port Sector Details and Outlook

The Indian ports sector is on the cusp of a renewed growth phase largely due to an intense focus on
transportation economics, legacy issues at governmentowned ports, and rising demand for minerals and
goods. With capacity addition at major ports lagging due to delayed approvals/bidouts by the government,
more proficient private ports are reaping the benefits.

The evolution of Indian ports can be categorised into three phases as per cargo growth at ports. From the
early days of 1950s and till the opening up of the Indian economy in 1991, ports posted a modest 5% CAGR
in cargo driven by major ports. However, with the economy/trade opening up, the second leg of 8% CAGR
was led by minor ports, growing at an impressive 20% (aided by privatisation and low base) against the mid-
single digit growth by major ports. The last decade witnessed a significant growth (11% CAGR) in port cargo
on account of a boost in domestic consumption (higher imports) and impetus to the manufacturing sector
(setting up of SEZs, incentives, etc., to promote exports). Major ports witnessed a healthy CAGR of higher
single digits while minor ports consolidated to 12-15% growth. Concerns on infinite delays in capacity
addition by major ports in the past couple of years coupled with the softness in iron ore exports (ban on iron
ore exports and hike in excise duty) have kept volume growth at major ports subdued.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |3


PCG RESEARCH

Investments needed in ICDs, CFS, Logistic Parks

While the capacity addition at the waterfront is crucial for a faster turnaround, without a parallel strategic
investment on the landside, any investment to augment capacities will languish due to storage/evacuation
bottlenecks. Absence of a concrete plan for the development of muchneeded physical infrastructure in the
form of CFS (Container Freight Stations) and ICD (Inland Container Depots) to help a free flow of cargo to
and from the gateways ports remains a concern area for Indian ports. Development of ICDs, CFS, or logistics
parks are primarily carried out by private sector instead of the government (as done in the abroad countries)
leading to an inefficient setup. Hence the need of the hour is the creation of adequate storage and linkages
with hinterland. Further with the likely growth in containerization due to ongoing projects like the
development of new ports and dedicated freight corridors, it is imperative to have more ICDs, CFS, logistics
parks, etc spread across the country in a uniform manner to develop an integrated logistic chain.

Strategic location, catchment hinterland key for success

Proximity to key cargo generating region would improve offtake from ports. Therefore, a strategic location is
one of the key success factors for any port. Regions which feed the ports are categorized as primary,
secondary and tertiary hinterlands, depending on the distance to/from the port. The ports in Gujarat are at
an advantage due to the proximity to large cargo generating hinterland including the state itself, Punjab,
Haryana and key northern states. Pipavav port is strategically located at the entrance of the Gulf of Khambat
trade route, which caters not only to the highly industrialised state of Gujarat, but also to Indias North and
NorthWest hinterlands. It will benefit from proximity to the countrys container shipping hub and the
congested JNPT port (average total turnaround time of 1.5 days against GPPLs 10-12 hours and virtually no
preberthing time) as a viable alternative to shipping lines. GPPL, stands to benefit from this as it is the
nearest port to JNPT at 150 nautical miles (278 km).

APM parentage an advantage; broad basing clientele

APM Terminals (subsidiary of AP Moller Maersk group) is one of the largest container terminal operators in
the world with an interest in approximately 63 ports and terminals. This parentage lends Pipavav strong
credibility among shipping lines who are its major customers. Thus, GPPL tends to receive benefits such as
developing business with shipping lines and assistance in developing relationships with third parties in the
shipping industry which will aid its ports volumes. In fact, Maersk Line (including Safmarine Container
Lines), part of the APMM Group and strategic customer of APM Terminals, is also among the largest
customers at the port and operates regular cargo shipping services to international destinations.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |4


PCG RESEARCH

Improving RORO (Roll On Roll Off) operations

GPPL has entered into an agreement with NYK Logistics - the largest Car carrier company in the world - to
set up a multi user car handling facility inside the Port under the landlord model for handling RoRo vessels,
wherein GPPL would provide NYK land on lease and NYK would do all the capital investment at the port for
the car handling facility. There are 2 sources of income for GPPL here: i) Rental income for the leased land
and ii) Handling of RoRo vessels

GPPL commenced handling of the RORO vessels since August 2015 and exported over 19,000 Cars from
Pipavav in FY16 (62,300 cars in 9M FY17). The facility has an annual designed capacity to handle 2,50,000
vehicles. With Gujarat developing as an Auto hub, we expect the share of high margin RORO to increase in
future, which should aid margins for GPPL.

Pipavav Rail JV between Govt. and GPPL

GPPL connects to the national railway network through a 269 km dedicated broad gauge rail link to
Surendranagar, which is further connected to Ahmedabad on the main Mumbai - Delhi trunk route. The rail
link has been developed and is operated by Pipavav Railway Corporation Ltd. (PRCL), a joint venture
between Indian Railways (Govt. 50%) and GPPL (38.8% stake) and the balance by others. The company
witnessed significant improvement in operating performance in FY16; earned revenues of Rs 249cr (+7%
yoy) and PAT of Rs 92cr (+108% yoy)

Volumes 2010 2011 2012 2013 15M 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
Container volumes (TEUs) 4,66,138 6,10,000 5,70,489 6,60,729 9,80,689 6,94,000 7,65,482 8,59,636 9,83,424
Growth (%) 45 30.9 -7 15.8 16 -11 10 12 14
Bulk volumes (tons) 33,41,000 36,80,000 30,10,500 31,06,000 46,43,675 26,49,446 28,58,752 31,13,181 33,38,264
Growth (%) -0.9 10.1 -18.2 3.2 22.2 -28 8 9 7
Liquid volumes (tons) - - - - 3,06,000 6,70,000 12,66,300 14,81,571 16,96,399
Growth (%) - - - - - 119 89 17 15
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |5


PCG RESEARCH

Q3 FY17 and 9M FY17 Update

Gujarat Pipavav Ports (GPPL) Q3 FY17 PAT of Rs 65 cr vs. Rs 55 cr and EBITDA margin expanded 110bps to
61.7% primarily due to cost control measures. Revenue came in at Rs 170 cr,+2.4% yoy, was impacted due
to the 29% QoQ drop in dry bulk volumes and weak container volumes (167k TEUs). However, it got partially
offset by high margin RORO and liquid volumes, which spurted 25% and 195% QoQ respectively.

Focus on cost optimization, better cargo mix drove profitability

Despite the marginal 2% rise in revenues, GPPL reported highest ever EBITDA margin of 62% driven by: (i)
better cargo mix; and (ii) cost control measures. High margin RORO and liquid volumes jumped 25% and
195% QoQ, respectively, driving up quarters EBITDA and PAT. Management continues to see RORO and
liquid cargo business as a significant contributor to revenues. During 9M FY17, company posted 2% revenue
growth, however EBITDA margin has improved 460bps on the back of cost control measures and higher
volumes in RORO. PAT was up 3% yoy to Rs 184cr, but adjusted PAT increased ~28% yoy; 9M FY16 included
Rs 60cr as exceptional income.

Other highlights of Q3 FY17

Dry bulk volumes fell 29% QoQ due to fertilizer volumes getting pushed forward and coal volumes
continuing to be weak

Liquid volumes however, jumped 195% QoQ due to higher LPG demand and seasonality

RORO volumes at 27,000 cars (up 25% QoQ), in the quarter

Q3 EBITDA was among the best for the company over the years, which was due to cost optimization
and cost leadership efforts by the company.

The companys cargo mix (imports and exports) stood at 60:40

Margins were higher due to better commodity mix and strong cost saving measures.

Management has stated no major capex is planned in near future

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |6


PCG RESEARCH

Expect Revenue/PAT cagr of 8%/12% over FY16-19E

GPPL has invested about Rs.360cr to expand its Container handling capacity from 0.85 Million TEUs to 1.35
Million TEUs. Hence, no major capex is lined up in the medium term. Company has posted 17% revenue cagr
over the last three years. We expect company to post 8% revenue cagr over FY16-19E along with 690bps
margin expansion and would post 63.8% in FY19. It has already witnessed healthy increase in margin and
posted 59.7% during 9M FY17. Better products mix and strong operating performance would lead to 11.8%
PAT cagr over FY16-19E. We expect company to post EPS of Rs 6.7 in FY19E. At CMP of Rs 150, stock trades
at ~22x of FY19E earnings and 13.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA. Company has not planned major investments in
expanding capacities of handling other commodities. GPPL would take a call on further capacity addition once
capacity utilization reaches 80% mark. Stock has traded > 21x PE and > 13x EV/EBITDA in the last three
years and we expect the same trend to continue as well. We rate GPPL as BUY at CMP of Rs 150 and add on
declines to Rs 140 and Rs 133 with sequential price targets of Rs 177 and Rs 195 (based upon 29x FY19E
earnings and 17.2x EV/EBITDA).

Key Risks

Lower than expected Volumes: Lower than estimated growth rates for container/bulk cargo is a key
risk to our recommendation.

Margin expansion: We have assumed EBITDA margin expansion of 310bps during FY16-19E. If the
management is unable to deliver such margins then, both, earnings as well as valuations, are at risk.

Though no major capex is planned in the near term; Major Capex if envisaged may dent in free cash
flows and may lead to risk to our rating.

Financial Summary (Rs cr)

(Rs Cr) Q3 FY17 Q3 FY16 YoY Q2 FY17 QoQ FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Sales 169 165 2.4 172 -1.7 867 660 678 744 828
EBITDA 104 100 4.3 99 5.8 541 400 444 500 565
Net Profit 65 55 18.0 59 8.6 387 237 248 282 325
EPS (Rs) 8.0 4.9 5.1 5.8 6.7
P/E (x) 18.7 30.6 29.6 26.1 22.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 18.4 16.9 15.0 13.2
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research, ^ 15M FY15 ended

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |7


PCG RESEARCH

Revenue Trend over FY16-19E EBITDA margin to trend higher


1000 80 600 64
63
800 60 500 62
61
40 400
600 60
20 59
300
400 58
0 57
200
200 56
-20 55
100
54
0 -40
0 53
FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Revenue Growth (%)
EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research, 15M FY15 ended Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

PAT trend
400 125
350 100
300 75
250 50
200 25
150 0
100 -25
50 -50
FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

PAT Growth (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research, 15M ended

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |8


PCG RESEARCH

Healthy Return Ratios Pipavav Rail Financials


30 300
%
249
24 250 232
25 23 224

200 179
20 17 153
16 150
14 15
15 13 13 12
13
92
100 81
10 55
46 44
50

5
0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
0
FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Revenues PAT

RoE RoCE
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research, 15M ended

C sec Research Revenue Contr. from APM (parent)


200 30.0

170

140 20.0

110

80 10.0

50

20 0.0
CY12 CY13 15M FY15 FY16

Revenues % of Total Revenues

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH Page |9


PCG RESEARCH

Income Statement (Consolidated) Balance Sheet (Consolidated)


(Rs Cr) FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E As at March FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Revenue 867 660 678 744 828 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Other Income 40 25 37 40 43 Share Capital 483.4 483.4 483.4 483.4 483.4
Total Income 907 685 715 784 870 Reserves 1307 1433 1538 1658 1802
Growth (%) 67.4 -23.9 2.7 9.8 11.2 Shareholders' Funds 1791 1916 2022 2141 2285
Operating Expenses 366 285 271 284 305 Net Deferred Taxes 0 127 82 53 38
EBITDA 541 400 444 500 565 Long Term Provisions & Others 47 38 21 21 21
Growth (%) 95.5 -25.1 8.5 13.0 13.6 Total Source of Funds 1838 2081 2127 2222 2350
EBITDA Margin (%) 57.8 56.9 60.1 61.8 63.2 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Depreciation 83 96 108 114 119 Net Block 1405 1731 1723 1689 1670
Deferred Tax Assets (net) 0 0 32 32 32
EBIT 458 304 336 386 446
Long Term Loans & Adv Incl. Non Curr Inv. 264 297 280 452 606
Interest 25.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0
Total Non Current Assets 1668 2027 2035 2173 2308
Extraordinary Items -44.8 60.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Inventories 13 13 19 20 23
PBT 387 364 336 385 445 Trade Receivables 36 29 39 45 48
Tax 0.0 127.4 88.0 103.1 120.3 Short term Loans & Advances 22 13 20 24 29
RPAT 387 237 248 282 325 Cash & Equivalents 244 290 336 306 315
Growth (%) 102.0 -38.9 3.6 13.5 16.9 Other Current Assets 7 5 6 10 14
EPS 8.0 4.9 5.1 5.8 6.7 Total Current Assets 322 350 420 405 428
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research, ^ indicates 15M FY15 Trade Payables 27 14 19 17 18
Other Current Liab & Provisions 109 154 169 186 201
Short-Term Provisions 17 128 140 152 166
Total Current Liabilities 153 296 327 356 385
Net Current Assets 170 54 93 49 43
Total Application of Funds 1838 2081 2127 2222 2350
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH P a g e | 10


PCG RESEARCH

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Key Ratio (Consolidated)


(Rs Cr) FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E (Rs Cr) FY15^ FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Reported PBT 387 364 336 385 445 EBITDA Margin 57.8 56.9 60.1 61.8 63.2
Non-operating & EO items -40 -142 -37 -40 -43 EBIT Margin 48.2 42.3 44.2 46.5 48.8
Interest Expenses 26 0 1 1 1 APAT Margin 44.7 35.9 36.2 37.4 39.3
Depreciation 83 96 108 114 119 RoE 24.2 12.8 12.4 13.4 14.7
Working Capital Change -11 161 8 13 15 RoCE 22.7 13.4 14.1 15.6 17.2
Tax Paid 0 -127 -88 -103 -120 Solvency Ratio
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 445 353 327 370 418 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6
Capex -24 -325 -100 -80 -100 D/E - - - - -
Free Cash Flow 421 28 227 290 318 Net D/E -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Investments -124 -33 -15 -172 -154 PER SHARE DATA
Non-operating income 40 25 37 40 43 EPS 8.0 4.9 5.1 5.8 6.7
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -107 -333 -78 -213 -211 CEPS 9.7 6.9 7.3 8.1 9.2
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -270 118 -62 -29 -15 BV 37.0 39.6 41.8 44.3 47.3
Interest Expenses -26 0 -1 -1 -1 Dividend 0.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.2
FCFE 125 146 165 260 302 Turnover Ratios (days)
Share Capital Issuance 0 0 0 0 0 Debtor days 15 16 21 22 21
Dividend 0 -109 -140 -158 -182 Inventory days 5 7 10 10 10
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -296 9 -202 -188 -198 Creditors days 33 18 25 22 22
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 42 29 47 -31 9 VALUATION
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
P/E 18.7 30.6 29.6 26.1 22.3
P/BV 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
EV/EBITDA 13.7 18.4 16.9 15.0 13.2
EV / Revenues 7.9 10.4 10.2 9.3 8.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1
Dividend Payout 0.0 38.8 49.3 48.7 47.6
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH P a g e | 11


PCG RESEARCH

Close Price
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH P a g e | 12


PCG RESEARCH

Rating Chart

R HIGH
E
T
MEDIUM
U
R
N LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE


IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15% &
LOW RISK - LOW RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
BLUE PRICE CAN FALL 20% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
20% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
MEDIUM RISK - IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% &
RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
YELLOW HIGH RETURN PRICE CAN FALL 35% IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN RISE BY
STOCKS OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
35% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30% &
HIGH RISK - HIGH RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
RED PRICE CAN FALL 50% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
50% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

Private Client Group - PCG RESEARCH P a g e | 13


PCG RESEARCH
I, Kushal Rughani, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No

Disclaimer:
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Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived
from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for,
any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company (ies)
mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and
other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any
action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the
dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or
may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other
assignment in the past twelve months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report
for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or
specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research
report. Accordingly, neither HDFC Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not
based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different
conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an
officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475

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