Risk Assessment
Evaluating the security of a network always starts with a risk assessment. This
involves considering the assets you are trying to protect, the threats against those
assets, vulnerabilities in your systems, and what measures you can take to protect
them. There are formulas for calculating risk.
The most basic calculation is for a single loss expectancy (SLE), or what impact a
single loss will cause. This is calculated by multiplying the asset value (AV) by the
exposure factor (EF). The exposure factor is a percentage value, representing how
much of the asset’s value you will lose in a given incident. For example, a laptop
that has depreciated by 20 percent is now only worth 80 percent of its original
value, should it be lost or stolen. This formula is
SLE = AV × EF
Therefore, if a laptop is purchased for $800, and depreciates by 10 percent a year,
thus yielding an exposure factor of .9 (90 percent), then the SLE for a stolen or lost
laptop is
SLE = 800 (AV) × .9 (EF)
SLE = $720
The next formula is the annualized loss expectancy (ALE). This represents how
much loss you can expect from a particular issue in a year. The formula is SLE
multiplied by annual rate of occurrence (ARO):
ALE = SLE × ARO
So, in the previous laptop example, if you think you will lose six laptops per year,
the calculation is
ALE = 720 (SLE) × 6 (ARO)
ALE = $4320
As you can see, the math is actually quite simple. Another concept to understand is
residual risk. Basically, this is how much risk is left over after you have taken all
the steps you can to deal with the risk. In addition, that topic brings us to the issue
of how you deal with a risk you have identified. There are really only four
categories of responses:
Mitigation: This means you take steps to lessen the risk. No matter what
you do, there is likely to be some risk left. For example, if you are
concerned about malware, then running antivirus is risk mitigation. This is
the most common solution.
Avoidance: This is difficult to do. It means you have zero risk. For
example, if you are concerned about users downloading a virus from a
website, the only way to completely avoid that is to not give them access to
the web. This is not usually a viable solution.
Transference: This is transferring the risk to someone else. The clearest
example is cyber breach insurance. If you have such insurance, then the cost
of a risk that is realized will be passed on to the insurance company.
Acceptance: If the probability of the risk is very remote, or the cost of
mitigation is higher than the cost of the risk being realized, you may choose
to do nothing, and simply accept the risk.