Applications of Weibull Distributions
Applications of Weibull Distributions
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Distri
Weibull models are used to describe various types 2.1.2 Relations to Other Distributions
of observed failures of components and .. 2
phenomena. They are widely used in
2.2 Properties........................................... 2
reliability and survival analysis. In addition to the
2.2.1 Basic Properties ........................
traditional two-parameter and threeparameter Weibull
2
distributions in the reliability or statistics literature,
2.2.2 Properties Related
many other Weibull-related distributions are available.
to Reliability............................. 3
The purpose of this chapter is to give a brief
introduction to those models, with the emphasis on 2.2.3 Simulation ...............................
models that have the potential for further applications. 4
After introducing the traditional Weibull distribution, 2.3 Modeling Failure Data.......................... 5
some historical development and basic properties 2.3.1 Probability Plots........................
arepresented. We also discuss estimation problems and 5
hypothesis-testing issues, with the emphasis on 2.3.2 Estimation and Hypothesis
graphical methods. Many extensions and Testing .............. 6
generalizations of the basic Weibull distributions are 2.3.3 Hypothesis Testing ....................
then summarized. Various applications in the reliability 7
context and some Weibull analysis software are also
provided. 2.4 Weibull-Derived Models ....................... 8
November200510:08
2
4
2.5 Empirical Modeling of Data .................. 2.6.2 Applications in Other
11 Areas......... 13
2.6.3 Weibull Analysis
2.6 Applications........................................
Software........... 13
12
2.6.1 Applications in References .................................................. 14
Reliability........... 12
The Weibull distribution is one of the best-known the Weibull distribution has
lifetime distributions. It adequately describes observed appearedinfivedifferentfor
failures of many different types of components and ms. Thetwocommon forms
phenomena. Over the last three decades, numerous of the distribution function
articles have been written on this distribution. Hallinan are as follows:
[2.1] gives an insightfulreview by presenting a number
of historical facts, the many forms of this distribution as
used by practitioners, and possible confusions and errors F (2.1)
that arise due to this non-uniqueness. Johnson et al. [2.2] and
devote a comprehensive chapter to a systematic study of F (2.2)
this distribution. More recently, Murthy et al. [2.3] The parameters of the distribution are given by the
presented a monograph that contains nearly every facet set θ = {α,β,τ} with α > 0, β > 0 and τ ≥ 0; where α is
relating to the Weibull distribution and its extensions.
a scale parameter, β is the shape parameter that
In Sect.2.1, we first define the three-parameter
determines the appearance or shape of the
Weibull distribution and then look at its historical
distribution and τ is the location parameter. The
development and relations to other distributions. Section
parameter λ combines both scale and shape features
2.2 studies the properties of the Weibull distribution, in
particular those relevant to reliability. A brief discussion as λ = α−β.
on simulation of Weibull variates is also included. Although one should use F(t,θ) instead of F(t),
We consider estimation problems and hypothesis where θ = (α,β,τ) denotes the vector of parameters,
testing in Sect.2.3. In particular, we emphasize the for notational convenience we suppress the
graphical methods as a tool for selection and parameter and use F(t) to denote F(t,θ) in this
parameter estimation of a Weibull model. We
chapter. Also, we do not intend to give an
devote Sect.2.4 to Weibullderived models, which
exhaustive review. Rather, we confine our
includes many extensions and generalizations.
discussion to aspects that are of relevance to the
Finally, in Sect.2.5, we outline various applications,
context of reliability theory.
especially those in the reliability context. Because
For τ = 0, (2.1) and (2.2) become the two-
of the vast literature, we are unable to refer to all
the source authors and we apologize in advance for parameter Weibull distribution with
any omissions in this regard. Symbols and
Abbreviations.
T Random variable F (2.3)
F(t) CDF, cumulative distribution
and
function
f(t) PDF, probability density function F (2.4)
h(t) Failure rate function (hazard rate) Murthy et al. [2.3] refer to this as the standard
α,β,τ Parameters WPP Weibull model, Johnson et al. [2.2] refer to a
Indexentriesonthispage
extreme-value distribution).
The Burr XII distribution, is given by t
−k
β
− −1 t− τ
(t) = βα β (t − τ) β exp −
α
(2.6) Moments
Let T denotetherandomvariablefromthethree-
and −1 parameterWeibulldistributiongivenby(2.1).Then
f(t) = βλ(t − τ) β exp − λ(t − τ) β , t ≥ τ. (2.7)
SpringerHandbook
thetransformedvariable T = (T − τ)/α,isthestan-
TS0 Pleaseprovidetitleofreferencedchapter
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4
Indexentriesonthispage
PartA
f ,t≥τ
Mode
Order Statistics
It follows from (2.6) that the mode is at α((β−1)/β)1/β +τ
Let T1,T2,··· ,Tn denote n independent and identically
2.2
for β > 1 and at τ for 0
distributed three-parameter Weibull random variables
with density function given in (2.6) and cumulative
Median distribution function (CDF) in (2.1). Further, let T(1) ≤
It follows from (2.3) that the median of the distribution T(2) ≤ ··· ≤ T(n) denote the order statistics from a sample of
is at α(log2)1/β +τ. n observations. The probability density function of T(1),
dard form (in the sense of Johnson et al. [2.2]) with the is given by
density function given by
f ,β > 0 . (2.8)
The moments of T (about zero) are easily obtained from f
the moments of T which are given below: (2.12)
0.2
forthethree-parameterWeibullis
0.0
β− 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 t f(t) = β t − τ
h( t) = . (2.16)
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CE1 Pleaseconfirmthepositionofthetimessymbolinthisequation(2.14)
Editor’sortypesetter’sannotations(willberemovedbeforethefinalTeXrun)
4
It can be shown that Distributions
k Supposewe have two Weibullrandom variables X
i
and Y with distribution functions F(x) and G(y),
E , (2.14) respectively, given by
i=0
F ,
where G . (2.20)
We say that X ages faster than Y if the ratio of the
n
r− 1 failure rate of X over the failure rate of Y is an
k + k increasing function of t. This ratio is given by
ωr( ) =(r −1)!(!n − r) ! Γ 1 β i= 0
r− 1
( − 1) r i
α1β2 × α1ββ21−−11 tβ2−β1 (2.21) α2β1 α2 which is
× .
(n−r +i +1)1+(k/β) an increasing function of t if β2 > β1.
CE1
Effectiveness of Parallel Redundancy –
The Weibull Case
2.2.2 Properties Related to Reliability Denote the lifetime of one component by T and the
lifetime of a parallel system of two such independent
In this section, we consider only the first form of the components by Tp. The effectiveness of parallel
4 Part A Weibull distribution.
Fundamental Statistics and its Applications
Indexentriesonthispage
behaviourofthefailureratefunction,theWeibulldis-
tributionoftenbecomessuitablewhentheconditions 1 α = 3, =2
for strictrandomness oftheexponentialdistribution
α = 2, = 0.5
arenotsatisfied,withtheshapeparameter β having 0
avaluedependinguponthefundamentalnaturebeing
0 1 2 3 4 5 t
considered.
Insomeway,havingafailureratefunctionofmono-
tonicshapehaslimitationsinreliabilityapplications.
Forthisreason,severalgeneralizedormodifiedWeibull Suppose E( X) = E(Y), i.e., α2 Γ( 1 + 1/β 2 ) =
distributionshavebeenproposed(seeSect.2.4formore α1 Γ( 1 + 1/β 1 ) . Lai and Xie [2.10] show that
details).Figure2.2showsplotsofthefailureratefunc-
tionsforsomeselectedparametersvalues.
Fig.2.2 Two-parameter Weibull failure rate functions Var(X)
≤ Var(Y).
Mean Residual Life redundancy of the component is defined by [2.11]
The mean residual life (MRL) of a lifetime random
variable T is defined as ep = [E(Tp)− E(T)]/E(T) . (2.22)
t
∞F dx F¯(t)
¯(x)
Suppose that T is a two-parameter Weibull distribution
µ(t) = E(T −t|T> t) =. (2.18)
with shape parameter β and scale parameter α. Xie and
For the Weibull distribution, the MRL is Lai [2.11] show that
complicated except for the two special cases β = 1
ep = 1−2−1/β , (2.23)
(exponential) and β = 2√ (Rayleigh distribution).
α = 2σ
√ location parameter1 τ = 0, the MRL of
Assuming the
= 2πσ [1 − Φ(t/σ) ] e 2σ 2 which decreases as β increases. Thus, a parallel
November200510:08
the Rayleigh distribution with scale parameter is redundancy is more effective for β < 1.
t2
µ(t), t > 0 , (2.19) where Φ(t/σ) denotes the 2.2.3 Simulation
distribution function of the standard normal The two-parameter Weibull distributionwith parameters
variable. β and λ has the probability density function
CET
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PartA
then scaled by λ−(1/β) to obtain a two-
parameter Weibull observation with density
(2.24).
2.3
2.3 Modeling Failure Data The process of black box modeling involves the
•
• Fˆˆ(ti) == i/(−n+1), the “mean rank” estimator, and
y = βx −β logα . (2.26)
H , (2.27)
H(t)1/β/α = (t −τ) . (2.28)
y . (2.29)
(2.26)thattheshapeparametercanbeestimatedfromthe
slope of the WPP. However, care needs need to be given
because possible confusion may arise due to several
2.3
PartA
be [Link]
these methods can be found, for example, in Kalbfleisch observations from the two-parameter
and Prentice [2.17].
2.3
We note that these methods may not be appropriate Weibull distribution. If τ = 0, then each Xi
for small data sets. Hence, the estimates obtained from
is replaced by Xi −τ in the above equations.
the WPP plot may be taken as the final estimates when
the data size is small. The value βˆ needs to be solved from (2.31) and then
Moment Estimation. By equating the first three moments (2.30) is used to obtain αˆ.
of theWeibulldistributionto thefirst threesample
moments and solving, it is possible to find the moment Suppose the location parameter τ is also unknown,
estimators of α,β and τ. Now, the first moment ratio then the maximum-likelihood estimates α,ˆ βˆ and τˆ
depends only on the shape parameter β, and hence satisfy the following equations
has been estimated from the sample
coefficient of skewness, βˆ can be determined
numerically. Using βˆ, αˆ can be determined from the αˆ =(2.32)
standard deviation, and lastly τˆ is determined from the
sample mean. If τ is known, then β can be estimated
from the ratio
(standard deviation/(mean-τ).
For modified moment estimation, see Cohen et al.
[2.18].
Maximum-Likelihood Method.
Maximum-likelihood methods for
the three-parameter Weibull =
distribution have been reviewed by Zanakis and
Kyparisis [2.19]; see also Johnson et al. [2.2, Chapt. 21] and
for other details. n n
The most common situation is when the location
parameter τ is known. Without loss of generality, we (βˆ τ)ˆ βˆ−1 .
may assume that τ = 0 so that the model becomes the i=1 i=1
PartA
−(λt)
F(b)− F(a)
The failure rate function is
0<a≤t≤b<∞.
2.4
(2.44)
h .
Thefailureratefunctionisincreasingif ν ≥ 1,β ≥ 1 and
Modified Weibull Extension [2.29].
decreasing if ν ≤ 1,β ≤ 1.
G ,
Modified Weibull Distribution [2.25]. t ≥ 0,α,β,λ > 0 . (2.45)
G(t) = 1−exp(−λt e ) ,t ≥ 0
β νt (2.40)
Four-Parameter Weibull Distribution [2.28]. failure rate λβtβ−1 and the exponential distribution
with failure rate λ1. For β > 1, the Weibull
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4
Indexentriesonthispage
is the following:
competing
risk model
involving
2.4
. (2.54)
two For more on such models, see Cox and Oakes [2.39] and
Weibull distributions.
Kalbfleisch and Prentice [2.17].
n-Fold Multiplicative Model (Complementary Risk
Type V Models (Discrete Weibull Models) Here T
Model).
n
can only assume non-negative integer values and this
defines the support for F(t).
G (2.49) i=1
Model 1 [2.40].
The multiplicative model involving two Weibull
distribution is considered in Jiang and Murthy
[2.36]. 1 qt t
0,1,2,
n-Fold Sectional Model. 3,0t<0.
F(t) =− β = ··· (2.55)
), 0 ≤ t ≤ t1 ,
,
G(2.50)
Model 2 [2.41]. The cumulative hazard function is given
by
1−kn F¯n(t) , t > tn−1 ,
orarerandomvariables. insidethebrackets.
CE3 PleaseensurethattheabbreviationsIFRandDFRaredefinedonfirstuseinthetext
4 Editor’sortypesetter’sannotations(willberemovedbeforethefinalTeXrun)
, t = 0,1,2,··· .
PartA
(2.58)
2.5
Process Models)
These are stochastic point process models
with links to the standard Weibull model.
. (2.59)
This model has been called by many different names:
power law process; Rasch–Weibull process; Weibull
intensity function); Weibull–Poisson process and
Weibull process. We note that the inter-event times do
not have Weibull distributions. For further discussion on
the Weibull process, see for example, Bain and
Engelhart [2.44, Chapt. 9].
wide range of shapes for the density and failure rate functions, which make them suitable for modeling complex
failure-data sets.
Recall, we mention that empirical modeling usually involves three steps: model selection, estimation of model
parameters and model validation. In the context of Weibull models, a selection procedure may be based on WPP
plots. This is possible due to the availability of WPP or generalized WPP plots for all the Weibull models of types I–
III. Of course, the shape of the density and failure rate functions will also be valuable in the selection step. An added
advantage of the WPP plots is that they provide crude estimates of model parameters; these serve as a starting point
for steps 2 and 3.
It has been suggested that an alternative method to estimate model parameters is through a least-squares fit.
Basically speaking, this involves selecting the parameters the parameters to minimize a function given
Fig.2.4 Probability plot of data set from Table 2.1
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PartA
Indexentriesonthispage
2.6
PartA
Author(s)
Topic
Weibull [2.5]
Yieldstrengthofsteel,fatiguelifeofsteel
2.6
Almeida [2.53]
Failureofcoatings
Fok et al. [2.54]
Failureofbrittlematerials
Newell et al. [2.55]
Failureofcompositematerials
Li et al. [2.56]
Concretecomponents
out-of-control. For more on this, see Rahim [2.59],
Costa and Rahim [2.60], and Chen and Yang [2.61].
Nelson [2.62] deals with control charts for items with
Weibull failure distributions where conforming and
nonconforming items differ in the scale parameter but
have the same shape parameter. Murthy et al. [2.63] and
Djamaludin et al. [2.64] deal with lot production and
look at optimal lot size to control the occurrence of
nonconforming items.
When the failure rate has a bathtub shape, it is
prone
[Link]
exhibiting bathtub failure rates, burn-in is a
technique that can be used to weed out such failures
and improve product reliability before it is released
for sale. For more on burn-in, see, e.g., Kececioglu
and Sun [2.65].
Warranty cost analysis for products with a
Weibull failure distribution has received a lot of
attention. For more on this, see, e.g., Blischke and
Murthy [2.66,67] and Murthy and Djamaludin
[2.68].
Preventive maintenance of products with a
Weibull failure distribution has received
considerable attention.
Intheagepolicy,anitemisreplacedpreventivelywhenit
reaches some specified age and Tadikmalla [2.69]
deals
withthisinthecontextoftheWeibullfailuredistribution.
In the block policy, items are replaced preventively
at set clock times and Blischke and Murthy [2.70]
deals with this in the context of the Weibull failure
distribution. 2.6.2 Applications in Other Areas
by Isograph
Inc., Newport Weibull by
Beach, CA; Barringer &
[Link] Associates,
ograph- Inc., Humble,
[Link]/ TX;
[Link] [Link]
[Link]
m •
/[Link]
WinSMITH
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