Confirm Market Direction Tick by Tick With: Order Flow +
Confirm Market Direction Tick by Tick With: Order Flow +
Preview at [Link]/Order-Flow
Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for
every investor. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with
sufficient risk capital should consider trading.
Because you
can never have
too many
PowerTools
17 is coming
Featuring the NEW OptionScope® and
QuoteCenter® PowerTools
Discover the latest features at [Link]/whats-new
Stocks & Commodities V. 29:5 (16-23, 28): In The Volume Zone by Walid Khalil and David Steckler
INDICATORS
Trending Or Nontrending?
AYA KAKEDA
The Vzo discerns bullish volume from bearish volume and 1 During the uptrend period starting from October 2005
is useful for identifying at which zone (bullish or bearish) until October 2007 (area 1), Vzo was moving with
volume is positioned. The oscillator is plotted on a vertical the trend, fluctuating between the zero line and the
scale of&
sis of STOCKS ‑100 to +100. Movements
COMMODITIES above +40 are considered
magazine upper zone (public participation phase).
overbought, while an oversold condition would be a move
2 At area 2, price was rising normally while the Vzo was
under ‑40. Movements above +60 mark extreme overbought
roval or changes: declining, forming a negative divergence (distribution
levels, while an extreme oversold condition is a move under
phase).
‑60. The zero line demonstrates equilibrium between buyers
-1307 • email: KMoore@[Link]
and sellers. The components of the Vzo system are: 3 At turning point zone 3, Vzo has made a new two-year
low, giving a warning that more shares than usual have
n 60-period exponential moving average (Ema)
been distributed (distribution phase).
n 14-period average directional movement index (Adx)
4 At point 4, for the first time in more than two years,
ROOF #1 Vzo has failed to reach the upper boundary, giving
n Seven oscillator zones: +60, +40, +15, zero, ‑5, ‑40,
and ‑60. another warning that bears are taking control (distribu-
tion phase).
VZO clarifies money flow 5 At zone 5, Vzo clearly shows the heavy selling pressure
Volume figures alone do not provide a clear money flow analysis
confirming the downtrend (panic & public participation
or even explain changes in volume attitude during different
phase).
trends; Vzo analysis can add important information about the
trend as well as a clear money flow analysis. Vzo movements 6 At point 6, and for the first time since April 2007,
Vzo has reached +40, indicating new money flows
(accumulation phase).
NEW for 2011: BWT PRECISION AUTO TRADER - TRADE SMARTER, TRADE AUTOMATED 7 Finally, at point 7, Vzo has rebounded from the zero
Stop Losing and Start Winning by Keeping Your Emotions in Check 100% Automated Entry line without reaching ‑40, indicating an uptrend attitude
and Exit • Forex • Futures • ETF’s • Stocks • Ninja Trader • Muliti Charts • Tradestation
(accumulation phase).
18.63
15.00
echnical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine When price is above the 60-
Figure 2: the seven oscillator zones. On the daily chart of the SPY, these zones are marked on the VZO subchart, with day Ema and Adx is greater than
each horizontal line representing one zone. 18, buying signals are issued
ren Moore with approval or changes: when:
with a gray line, zero with a black line, ‑5 with a light blue n The Vzo crosses from below ‑40 to above ‑40 (over-
-0570 • fax: 206-938-1307
line, • email:
‑40 with a red line, KMoore@[Link]
and ‑60 with red crosses. The zones sold reversal)
are marked on the daily Spy with Vzo in Figure 2.
n A retracement down from +40 that fails to reach ‑40
is common during an uptrend. Vzo will not reach the
Uptrend psychology
PROOF #1 lower boundary and will rebound from a low above
During uptrends, volume rises with rising prices
‑40. Thus, crossing from below zero to above gener-
and falls during corrections. This is one of Dow
ates a buy signal. To reduce whipsaws, you can wait
theory’s basic tenets, as expressed by Robert
for a crossing from below zero to above +15.
Edwards and John Magee: “Volume goes with the
trend.” Long-term investors tend to accumulate Three selling conditions occur during a long position
shares gradually, leading to a major shift in the demand/supply when:
outcome toward the demand, which in turn leads to waves of
n The Vzo rises above +60 and starts to go down
higher lows followed by higher highs.
Volume tends to increase upon reaching new price territo- n A negative divergence appears at an extreme level
ries and decrease during downward corrections. The Vzo will and Vzo breaks below +40
react to that behavior by staying in the upper zone between zero
n Price goes below the 60-day Ema and Vzo falls
below zero.
Downtrend psychology
During downtrends, volume rises with falling prices and falls
Advanced algorithms deliver during upward corrections. Long-term investors tend to lay off
low lag, low noise analysis. their shares gradually, leading to a major shift in the demand/
supply outcome toward the supply, which in turn leads to
waves of lower highs followed by lower lows. The Vzo will
react to that volume behavior by staying in the lower zone
Now featuring between ‑40 and zero, indicating more selling pressure than
Tools for... buying pressure.
[Link] • 800-810-3646 • 719-686-0074 n The Vzo crosses from above +40 to below +40 (over-
bought reversal)
For more information circle No. 10
above ‑40
108.00
106.00
Volume Zone Oscillator (14) 25.07 60.00 40.00 15.00 -5.00 -40.00 -60.00 0.00 Bearish divergence
80.00
n Price goes above the
60.00 60-day Ema and Vzo
Sell
Buy S Sell short
40.00
25.07
rises above zero.
15.00
-5.00
B -20.00 With this information, now
review the Spy with Vzo in
-40.00
-60.00
Figure 3, but annotated with
ADX w/Level (14, 18, Black) 18.63 18.00 18.00 45.00
Also note the sell short signal on June 11, 2010. Price was below its 60-day EMA and the VZO crossed up and down through zero. its 60-day Ema while the Vzo
crossed up and down through
the zero line. The price closing
GLD above the Ema on February
17 (far left, blue ellipse) was
L=123.80 0.22 0.18% B=123.79 A=123.80 O=123.97 Hi=124.29 Lo=123.43 C=123.80 V=8,061,633 Mov Avg Exponential (Close,60,0) 119.45
122.00
120.00 accompanied by the Vzo clos-
119.45
118.00 ing at 7.80 (blue rectangle,
116.00 labeled buy), its highest close
114.00
since January 19. This posi-
112.00
tion would have remained
112.73 long until March 18 when the
110.00
110 Vzo closed well above +60
and then fell lower (second
60-Day EMA 108.00
106.00
blue ellipse and second blue
104.00
rectangle, labeled sell).
Volume Zone Oscillator (14) 25.07 60.00 40.00 15.00 -5.00 -40.00 -60.00 0.00
80.00
The next buying opportu-
60.00 nity came on March 29. Spy
40.00
22.16
15.00
was trading above its 60-day
-5.00 Ema (third blue ellipse) and
--20.00
-40.00
the Vzo fell below and then
ADX w/Level (14, 18, Black) 18.56 18.00 18.00
-60.00 rose back above zero (third
26.00
blue rectangle, labeled B).
18.56
This trade was also profitable,
14.00 exiting on April 16 when the
Vzo clearly made a bearish
FIGURE 4: NONTRENDING CONDITIONS. In such situations, the VZO fluctuates between ‑40 and +40, indicating a balance between divergence with price (note
buyers and sellers. the rising price trendline and
the falling Vzo trendline) and
n A retracement up from ‑40 that fails to reach +40 is com- after rising above +40, closed below +40 (fourth blue ellipse
mon during a downtrend. Vzo will not reach the upper and fourth blue rectangle, labeled S).
boundary and will fall lower from a high below +40.
Thus, crossing from above zero to below zero generates
a sell short signal. To reduce whipsaws, you can wait In nontrending
for a crossing from above zero to below ‑5 periods, the demand/
There are three covering/closing conditions during a short
supply outcome is
position when: neutral.
Copyright © Technical Analysis Inc.
Stocks & Commodities V. 29:5 (16-23, 28): In The Volume Zone by Walid Khalil and David Steckler
GLD
L=123.80 -0.22 -0.18% B=123.79 A=123.80 O=123.97 Hi=124.29 Lo=123.43 C=123.80 V=8,061,633 Mov Avg Exponential (Close,60,0) 119.45
122.00
120.00
119.45
118.00
n The Vzo crosses from
116.00
below +15 to above
+15.
114.00
112.00
112.73
60-Day EMA
110.00
Two selling conditions occur
108.00 during a long position if:
106.00
104.00 n The Vzo rises above
Volume Zone Oscillator (14) 25.07 tt 15.00 -5.00 -40.00 -60.00 0.00
+40, use the sell rules
Sell 80.00 from when Adx is great-
er than 18
60.00
Buy 40.00
Buy
22.16
15.00
-5.00 n The Vzo never rises to
+40, sell when it closes
Sell Multiple buy signals --20.00
-40.00
position size. Other technicians will not enter any trade with- Walid Khalil, Cfte, Mfta, is a member of the International
out a stop-loss. There are pros and cons to both sides of the Federation of Technical Analysts (Ifta) and chief technical
argument, so you have to make that decision yourself. strategist at Premiere Securities, Cairo, Egypt. He teaches
There were numerous buy signals on Gld after June 7, technical analysis at the Egyptian Society of Technical Ana-
when Adx once again fell below 18 and the Vzo rose above lysts (Esta).
15. Sell signals (not shown) occurred when the Vzo closed David Steckler, JD, is an investment advisor with
below ‑5. Global Investment Solutions, and is a past president of the
American Association of Professional Technical Analysts
Swinging with the VZO (Aapta).
Conservative swing traders might want to see the Vzo fall
to ‑40 or rise above +40 before buying or shorting when the Suggested reading
Adx is below 18. The risk is that by the time the Vzo rises Edwards, Robert D., and John Magee [2007]. Technical
or falls to those levels, the Adx will probably be above 18 Analysis Of Stock Trends, 9th ed., W.H.C. Bassetti, ed.
so you would need to monitor the relationship between price Amacom.
and the Ema before taking a directional trade. Granville, Joseph E. [1969]. Granville’s New Key To Stock
Another possibility when the Adx is below 18 is to buy or Market Profits, Prentice Hall/Simon & Schuster Profes-
write option straddles or strangles. A low Adx means vola- sional Publishing.
tility is low. These neutral option strategies are used when Murphy, John J. [1999]. Technical Analysis Of The Financial
you believe the underlying security is stable and you don’t Markets, New York Institute of Finance.
think it is going to make a large price move. An Adx move
above 18 would be a signal to consider exiting the straddle
or strangle. S&C
Next month we will introduce a similar, complementary
indicator: the price zone oscillator (Pzo).
Patent Pending
2 years............ 149
• Complete access to [Link] $ 99
The information you need to invest smartly and successfully.
3 years............ 199
• Access to [Link] Advantage $ 99
Insights, tips and techniques that can help you trade smarter.
5 years..........
$
29999
That’s around $5 a month!
The 60-day EMA is critical in the analysis of the VZO, particularly as it serves as a benchmark for trend identification. In trending markets (ADX greater than 18), the VZO is used in conjunction with the 60-day EMA to confirm buy and sell signals; for example, a position would be considered long if prices are above the 60-day EMA and the VZO crosses above zero . However, in nontrending markets (ADX less than 18), the relationship between price and the 60-day EMA is often ignored, focusing instead on VZO oscillations .
Nontrending conditions are indicated by the VZO when it oscillates between -40 and +40, representing a balance between buyers and sellers, as opposed to trending conditions where the ADX is above 18 and the VZO movements are aligned with larger price movements relative to the 60-day EMA. These conditions are identified using the ADX level, specifically when it is below 18, signaling a balanced demand/supply relationship. In such circumstances, price movements are more constrained, and the VZO acts as a confirmation tool, issuing signals based on its crossings through key levels rather than its relative position to the EMA .
When transitioning from a nontrending to a trending market, indicated by an ADX rise above 18, a trader should adjust their strategy by shifting focus from VZO oscillations to using VZO signals in conjunction with the 60-day EMA to capture trending moves. Initially, traders might have focused on frequent small trades based on VZO ranges in low ADX conditions. As the ADX rises, indicating trend strength, the strategy would likely involve holding positions over longer durations to capitalize on sustained market movements, using the VZO's zero line crossings as more significant indicators of entry and exit points in tandem with EMA confirmations .
The Volume Zone Oscillator (VZO) differs from the On-Balance Volume (OBV) in its design by incorporating both time and volume fluctuations between bullish and bearish conditions, whereas OBV is primarily focused on the concept that volume precedes price, adding volume during a period when the close is up and subtracting when down. VZO smooths volume actions and plots them as an oscillator, rather than using a simple trend-following indicator like OBV, offering insights into both trending and nontrending market conditions .
Traders might employ options strategies such as straddles or strangles when the VZO indicates nontrending conditions. Specifically, when the ADX is below 18—as such an environment indicates low volatility—the VZO provides signals without the volatility induced by strong trends. In such scenarios, traders might choose strategies like straddles or strangles, which are neutral strategies used to capitalize on potential changes in market conditions without significant price movement. Exiting these positions would be prompted by a rise in the ADX above 18, indicating an increase in directional volatility .
The VZO strategy manages risk primarily through position sizing rather than stop-loss orders, based on the rationale that stop-loss placements can potentially cause more harm than benefit by prematurely terminating trades with favorable odds. Traders operating under this strategy aim to exit trades based on the VZO-driven signal to buy or sell rather than relying on preset price levels. This approach relies on the VZO's ability to more accurately predict trend reversals, which proponents believe might not occur at conventional stop-loss points. Still, the decision to use or forego stop-loss orders is subjective and varies based on individual risk tolerance and strategy preferences .
The potential benefits of not using a stop-loss methodology in swing trading with VZO include avoiding the premature exit of positions that still hold upside potential, thereby capturing full market moves. This may prevent exiting positions due to transient volatility that does not align with the longer-term VZO signals. However, the drawbacks include increased exposure to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly or unexpectedly, as positions are left open until a VZO-driven exit signal is generated. The absence of stop-losses can also lead to psychological stress from seeing larger drawdowns, which may be unsuitable for traders with lower risk tolerance .
The relationship between VZO fluctuations and specific price zones offers insights into the dynamics of buyer and seller behavior. When VZO fluctuates between -40 and +40 in nontrending markets, it signals balance between buyers and sellers, often indicating a neutral market. However, as VZO approaches either extreme (-60 or +60), it suggests exhaustion of selling or buying activity, respectively; this exhaustion increases the likelihood of a reversal, with either sellers stepping in to realize profits or buyers initiating new positions in anticipation of further price gains. Thus, VZO serves as an indicator of market entry and exit points, based on behavioral responses to volume changes within certain price zones, aiding traders in timing their trades to take advantage of anticipated market reversals .
Divergence between the VZO and price action can signal hidden strengths or weaknesses in the market that aren't apparent through price movements alone. For instance, a bearish divergence occurs when price shows higher highs while the VZO indicates lower highs, suggesting a potential downturn. Conversely, a bullish divergence, where prices form lower lows and the VZO shows higher lows, might indicate an impending upturn. These divergence patterns help traders anticipate potential shifts in market trends and prepare for either retracements or continuations of the current trend .
The ADX plays a crucial role in determining whether VZO signals should be applied to trending or nontrending market conditions. When the ADX is greater than 18, it indicates a strong trend, prompting traders to use the VZO in conjunction with the 60-day EMA to identify buy and sell signals based on trend direction. Conversely, when the ADX is below 18, suggesting a nontrending market, the focus shifts towards VZO oscillations within a range, and the relationship between price and EMA is minimized. Thus, ADX effectively modulates the use of VZO signals by delineating market conditions into trending or nontrending, impacting traders’ signal interpretation and execution strategies .









