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Four-Dimensional Project Risk Framework

This document proposes a new four-dimensional framework for project risk management planning. The framework aims to better organize, simplify, speed up, and improve the quality of risk assessments. It does this by combining multiple popular risk management perspectives into a higher level of complexity. This provides additional insight into the risks associated with a particular project. The framework also provides a detailed list of potential risks to use as a starting point for evaluating project risks.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
92 views3 pages

Four-Dimensional Project Risk Framework

This document proposes a new four-dimensional framework for project risk management planning. The framework aims to better organize, simplify, speed up, and improve the quality of risk assessments. It does this by combining multiple popular risk management perspectives into a higher level of complexity. This provides additional insight into the risks associated with a particular project. The framework also provides a detailed list of potential risks to use as a starting point for evaluating project risks.

Uploaded by

rafahueso
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

DOI NUMBER: 10.

19255/JMPM01409

PROJECT RISK PERSPECTIVES

KEYWORDS
Project Management • Risk Management

Another Look at

PROJECT RISKS.
• ABSTRACT •
A MULTIDIMENSIONAL
PERSPECTIVE
The purpose of this article is to examine the current state of project management
risk assessments and extend the evaluation process to a higher level of multi-di-
J. RICHARD HORNE
mensional scrutiny. It does this by combining several popular risk management
• Nova Southeastern University perspectives into a higher level of complexity. In doing so, the evaluation can pro-
• jrhornefl@[Link] vide additional insight to the risks associated with a particular project. The scope
of this article con�ines itself to application in the project management �ield.

INTRODUCTION
---------------------
The purpose of this article is to discuss and propose a new four-dimensional Based on the above, the key term and concept is that of uncertainties. Typically, risk management planning is done during the initial stages of the project while the PM speci�ic information on identifying the unique
framework to guide the risk management planning process. The methodology That is, unplanned events or situations presenting themselves during the does the other planning components, such as planning for communications, procurement, budget- risks for their project (Fabricius & Buttgen, 2015).
behind this article is by an associative extension of commonly accepted and execution of the project. ing, quality management, etc. So, during this time the PM, and their core staff must consider all fac- This article presents a framework with which to
proven project risk techniques and extended their use in a new framework. ets of the project during this learning process. These planning components all tie into one another. use to help the PM and risk planner be creative in
BACKGROUND
This framework will provide a detailed list of potential risks for the project They should be thought of as linked planning components to an overarching project plan (Kutsch, their effort to identify speci�ic risks.
manager to use as a starting point in evaluating their project’s risks. The
---------------------
Denyer, Hall, & Lee-kelley, 2013). According to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PM-
bene�its of this framework are to; better organize, simplify, speed-up and
LITERATURE REVIEW
BOK), the risk management planning process follows this basic path (Figure 1):
improve the quality of their risk assessment process. This framework will For very simple projects, naturally, not much time needs to be spent in this
speed up the evaluation and help ensure a thorough assessment by providing effort; just identify a few of the most critical risks, evaluate them, devise mit- ---------------------
a starting point, an identi�ication of likely risks in each category, along with igation strategies and then move on (Bowers & Khorakian, 2014). However, Project risk management has been found to moderate
the four dimensions discussed below. this article is written for those projects that are complex in nature and are the relation between risk levels and project success
FIGURE 01. Risk Management Planning Process
fraught with several types of risks. In the case of very large projects, this is (Zwikael1 & Ahn, 2011) . In fact, their study indicates
Determining project risks is one of the most important jobs of the project
especially true (Thamhain, 2013). For instance, projects involving newer Also, according to the PMBOK, Inputs to the risk planning process include: that even moderate amounts of risk planning are
manager (PM). It is here that they begin to consider, document and evalu-
technologies, and those projects that involve other factors, such as projects found to be suf�icient to mitigate negative risk levels.
ate the risks of their project and this should be done at the very beginning • Project scope and schedule
of the project to help ensure project success (Zwikael1 & Ahn, 2011). done overseas with very diverse cultures and laws, than one's country.
This relationship was further ampli�ied when
• Cost management plan
For purposes of this article, a de�inition of essential terms is needed. In One other very important justi�ication for using this proposed framework complex projects are involved. It has been found
is the human factor. When a person begins the process of evaluating risks, • Communications plan that almost one-half of the serious risk events
this perspective:
their �irsthand experiences and education will guide their thinking. For • Enterprise environmental factors had not even been detected before they seriously
• Risk – uncertain events that may result in some negative result or lose instance, a person with a strong background in �inance may tend to ori- impacted the project (Thamhain, 2013). It was
to the project • Organizational process assets
ent their thinking towards cost-related risks, at the expense of other risks. also found that risk events are handled much
• Opportunity – uncertain events that may result in some positive result Likewise, a person with a strong technical background may heavily orient With these in hand, one has a very excellent base of information with which to conduct this anal- more effectively when found in their initial stag-
or gain to the project their risk assessment to the technical risks at the expense of cost risks. ysis. However, as good at these elements are, they may leave the risk planner with precious little es and when a cross-functional team approach is

88 JOURNAL OF MODERN PROJECT MANAGEMENT • SEPTEMBER/DECEMBER • 2017 2017 • [Link] 89


ANOTHER LOOK AT PROJECT RISKS – A MULTIDIMENSIONAL PERSPECTIVE

used to respond to those risks. eral types of project. For example, in one study in the construction business, three diverse types The reason for the importance of this dimension, the source faster. This speed-up of work represent the concept of the learning curve applied to a
of construction types were found to have diverse types of threats (Tran & Molenaar, 2014). This of the uncertainty, is that the source must be clearly under- project. Therefore, this unplanned increase in work ef�iciency will result in a reduction in
Conversely, it has been found the risk manager’s dis-
situation resulted in the identi�ication of different risks, and when risks were similar, their priority stood as the actions taken because of this evaluation may be task duration. This speed-up can have a downstream impact in that future tasks can be
engagement from risk manager practices can result
was different, contingent about the type of construction project. very different from an uncertainty that emanates from with- started earlier than planned. As a result, the project planner now has an opportunity to
in risk events in IT projects (Kutsch, Denyer, Hall, &
in the company than from one that emanates from outside have a more favorable scope-cost-schedule result and should change plans accordingly.
Lee-kelley, 2013). The study mapped backward from The idea of integrating the concept of social, technical, economic, environmental and political has been
the company.
signi�icant risk events and looked at risk manage- proposed before (Boateng, Chen, Ogunlana, & Ikediashi, 2013). This proposal, likewise, sees that some So, this means that when a planner is considering uncertainties associated with the
ment practices; It was found that typically assessed projects will be exposed to these factors as well and that these need to be quanti�ied. This study went on project, then they should consider if the uncertain will result in a positive impact or a
risks remained untreated as had been planned. to elaborate in even more detail on the STEP factors, with identifying by endogenous and exogenous fac- THE THIRD DIMENSION – THE PEST FRAMEWORK negative impact, that is, the uncertainty may result in an Opportunity, if positive, or a
tors. In a variation on this theme, this author used these additional factors as well in the proposed model. --------------------- Risk, if negative. This factor is the fourth dimension of the four-dimensional risk man-
Mapping tools used in conjunction with projects
This dimension is a new aspect proposed by this paper. The agement planning process.
have been proposed before. It has been suggested One study noted the project risks in IT projects are often dependent on one another and that by
intent of this part of the assessment is to expand and drill down
using a 5-point Likert scale by subject matter experts clearly identifying these dependencies up front in the project, risks may be better managed (Kwan However, this fourth dimension does not imply that for each project uncertainly that
into more detail as to whether risks or opportunities exist along
(SMEs) to evaluate project risks (Yildiz, Dikmen, & & Leung, 2011). The study proposed and expanded risk management methodology to include risk there will be both a risk and an opportunity, only that the project planner should con-
a spectrum of views.
Birgonul, 2013). Even with using SMEs, it was noted dependency issues. sider whether the impact results in a risk or an opportunity. Typically, an uncertainly
the sensitivity to risk attitude is not easily overcome. The PEST analysis in not a new technique but, its use in project will only be one or the other although it is possible that an uncertainty can result in
After identifying the project risks and opportunities, a project manager must decide on which ap- both a risk and an opportunity. For instance, going back to the example above where
risk management is new. A brief review the PEST technique
It has also been suggested that a simulation-based proach to use to manage the risks. These strategies provide structure for the project planner (Hill- the learning curve resulted in the early completion of a task, that is certainly an op-
follows (Boateng, Chen, Ogunlana, & Ikediashi, 2013). The four
risk model can be used to assess project risks due son, 2001). With this common frame of reference, a commonality of understanding can make the portunity for the PM to advance the schedule of the future tasks. However, this could
dimensions of a PEST analysis results in the below four catego-
to the growing complexity, uncertainty and more risk/opportunity management more effective. also be a risk in that the ‘shifting left,' that is advancing the future tasks, may present
ries for project risk assessment:
stringent constraints seen in many current projects problems as well. What if the resources that were planned, are not available early?
(Fang & Marle, 2012). Due to the greater complexity CONCEPT PROPOSAL AND JUSTIFICATION • Political/legal – this factor relates to government, at all levels
What if there are very costly expenses, such as materials, that were planned to be used
of some projects, project managers may need more --------------------- and laws or regulations they may dictate. The legal is related
next month, but the advance of the schedule requires these expenses early? Is the com-
robust tools to establish risk priorities. in that the legal dimension is often associated with the laws of
This article proposes the expansion of the current frameworks used in assessing project risk man- pany’s comptroller ready for this unexpected expense?
a community, state or central government.
THE ROADMAP FOR A MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT
It is also asserted that overcon�idence can lead to agement, to the four dimensions illustrated below. The justi�ication is that some projects, due to their
• Economic – this factor relates to the economic dimension,
---------------------
a biased risk assessment. (Fabricius & Buttgen, complexity, may be subject to a larger variety of risks, many of which may be unfamiliar to the project
2015). This study shows that overcon�idence can manager. This framework can provide a multi-dimensional starting-point from when to consider and could be either internal or external to the organization.
all the unique factors of their project (Tran & Molenaar, 2014). This framework is intended to be Figure 2 is a �low chart of the process using the four dimensions discussed above. It is
lead to a reduction of risk awareness of a project. • Socio-human – this could be either in a wider, community
used for complex and larger projects and not for routine projects with a simple set of project risks. important to understand that the proposed framework provides only a starting place
This factor may be driven by the assumption of pro- and cultural sense or, on the individual level such as personal
for the deliberation of uncertainties in the project. The framework is only a generic
ject success reduces the need for extensive project
THE FIRST DIMENSION – SCOPE-COST-SCHEDULE
competencies of the team members.
template and should be used by the planner to at least consider the multidimensional
risk assessment.
--------------------- • Technology – this factor can relate to the relative maturity aspects of the risks in their project. It would seem highly unlikely that a project would
One study on innovation projects noted the high and complexity of the technologies involved in the project. have the exact risks as noted on the template as the uncertainties that are given in the
At the beginning of the risk management process, the planner needs to ask �irstly, ‘The risks of what?’
failure rates in these types of projects and the better template are only meant to trigger a determination by the planner. They may feel that
Typically, the answer to this question is, ‘The risks to the scope, cost and schedule (SCS) of the project.’ In assessing the PEST dimension, it must be understood that
risk management could increase the success rates not all areas in the PEST evaluation, for example, may need to be considered, in which
This answer is very useful in that projects, and their project managers, are often evaluated along there is no mandate that there are in fact, uncertainties in
(Bowers & Khorakian, 2014). This study proposed case the project planner should skip over using the PEST dimension for their project
these three dimensions. So, this dimension, the performance elements of a project, the Scope-Cost- every one of the PEST categories. The intent here is for the PM
the combining of a generic innovation process with risk evaluation. The value of this exercise then, is that at least the PEST dimension was
Schedule dimension, is part of the �irst part multidimensional framework and evaluation process. to at least ask themselves the question of, ‘Do I have this uncer-
traditional project risk management techniques. considered before being eliminated. Alternatively, they may feel that a project has several
In this instance, the PM will be asking themselves more speci�ic questions about whether risks are tainty in my project?’ If they do, then they will have to identify
external, economic factors only, and these should be given the key consideration during
One aspect of limitations of current project risk lit- present in these three dimensions to ensure that have an all-inclusive list of risks to the project (Fang the uncertainty speci�ically, categorize it as a risk or opportu-
the risk assessment, and internal factors are not considered key factors.
erature relates to the scalability of the assessment & Marle, 2012). This situation is working on the premise that the risks to the project’s scope may nity, and then, score its likelihood of occurrence.
(Zoltán & Tamás, 2014). According to these authors, have nothing at all to do with the project’s cost so, the PM needs to ensure they at least consider
the problem with scalability is that as the later each of the three elements on its individual merit. This way, the PM ensures clarity of thought and THE FOURTH DIMENSION – THE IMPACT OF THE
events in a project may not have the same set of risks precision for identifying risks. UNCERTAINTY
as risks that exist in the earlier stages of the project. ---------------------
THE SECOND DIMENSION – SOURCE OF THE UNCERTAINTY This �inal dimension asks the planner to consider the uncertainly
The Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) --------------------- and its impact on the project. Although uncertainly is usually
has been proposed as a basis for a spread-
However, just using the SCS dimension to evaluate risks provides the PM with only a very high-level associated with some negative impact, also known as risk, there
sheet-based decision support system (Taroun
and generic way to look at risks so, another dimension will be added to help amplify and provide are times when an unplanned for event or situation presents
& Yang, 2013). One especially useful feature of
further guidance in risk identi�ication. The next dimension proposed in this new framework will itself, and that event turns out to be an opportunity for some
this framework is that the lack of perfect and full
be the source of the risk; whether the source of the risk is internal or external to the organization. improvement in the scope-cost-schedule of the project. For ex-
knowledge is not a hindrance in the assessment,
Why does this matter? By carefully considering each source on its merit, then the risks can be more ample, there are times when an initial task duration was based
but, that lack of information of risk elements is
easily understood. For example, costs are often identi�ied as a risk in projects. However, consider on an estimated level of work effort. However, it is well known
transparent in this framework.
that there two very different drivers behind the cost risk, one that emanates from inside the PM’s that as an individual repeats a task during a project, they are
Any risk assessment tool should can handle sev- own organization, and cost risks that emanate from outside the PM’s organization. likely to get better at doing that task, at times much better and FIGURE 02. Roadmap for Multidimensional Risk Management Process

90 JOURNAL OF MODERN PROJECT MANAGEMENT • SEPTEMBER/DECEMBER • 2017 2017 • [Link] 91


ANOTHER LOOK AT PROJECT RISKS – A MULTIDIMENSIONAL PERSPECTIVE 8

THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (MRA) FRAMEWORK


INTERNAL EXTERNAL
Pol/Legal Economic Social/Human Technical Scope Technical Social/Human Economic Pol/Legal

IN PRACTICE -Management changes


direction and project is -Budget cut or overruns
-Not enough talent, -Unforeseen technical -Unforeseen technical -Not enough talent, -Unforeseen pol/legal

---------------------
quality or quantity, in difficulties on project difficulties in supplier quality or quantity, in -Client funding shortfalls events in business
7 Risk no longer in line with for project limiting Risk
company for scope of team limiting marketplace limiting job market for scope of call for reduced scope sector/country limiting
long term objectives scope
work completion of scope completion of scope work scope
changing scope Total
The �irst step in understanding and using the MRA framework is the rating scale to be Sub-total 1 1 4 2 8 20 12 4 2 3 3 Sub-total
The Multidimensional Risk Assessment (MRA) Framework in Practice -Project approach of
used by the project planners, as shown in the scoring guide Table 1 (Yildiz, Dikmen, -Management raises work finding wide
The first step in understanding and using the MRA framework is the rating scale to be used priority of project to gain -Project solutions by -Smarter solution to -Client may want to acceptance outside
-Follow-on projects/
&byBirgonul,
the project2013). This
planners, guideinpresents
as shown a very
the scoring guide wide
Table range of Dikmen,
1 (Yildiz, de�initions from the very
& Birgonul, recognition/ develop team providing scope
-Learning curve shorter
project providing expand scope of project company
-Client wants to increase customers using
Opportunity than anticipated making scope and willing to pay same/similar Opportunity
2013). risks/opportunities,
minor This guide presents a verytowide
veryrange of definitions
serious from the very confronting
risks/opportunities, minor the project new business markets or deliverables under
tasks easier to complete
expanded scope of based on early successes (community/markket
more deliverables as used in
risks/opportunities, to very serious risks/opportunities, confronting the project manager technologies based on budget capabilities for client in project segment) leading to
current project
manager (Zoltán &
(Zoltán & Tamás, 2014): Tamás, 2014). scope of project
Total
positive image for
company
Sub-total 0 4 3 0 7 19 12 3 2 3 4 Sub-total
Score Scoring criteria Pol/Legal Economic Social/Human Technical Time Technical Social/Human Economic Pol/Legal
1 Slight impact on risk/opportunity profile of this project -Behind schedule calls -Learning curve for -Unforeseen technical
-Unforeseen technical -Inability of company to -Depressed external
-Delays in schedule due
-Other projects difficulties from project recruit external talent in economic environment
2 Noticeable impact on risk/opportunity profile of this project Risk for crashing tasks raising project team members difficulties on project to legal or regulatory Risk
competing for resources suppliers/ vendors timely manner for delayed slowing down
3 Major impact on risk/opportunity profile of this project risks and costs longer than anticipated team causing delays
Total causing delays project schedule
obstacles

4 Slight impact on risk/opportunity profile of this program/component of the company Sub-total 1 2 1 3 7 26 19 3 4 5 7 Sub-total

5 Noticeable impact on risk/opportunity profile of this program/component of the company FIGURE 03. Summary Risk Assessment Radar Chart
-Tasks ahead of schedule
-Early tasks complete
-Smarter way to do -Smarter way to do -Ability of company to
-Possibility of bonus
-Relaxation of
-Can start project/ tasks leading to possibility of project found by project project found by project recruit external talent in legal/regulatory
6 Major impact on risk/opportunity profile of this program/component of the company Opportunity
earlier that anticipated release of project
can release employees
team saving time in task supplier/vendor saving timely manner for
from customer for early
guidelines that speed up
Opportunity
7 Slight impact on risk/opportunity profile of the entire company to other tasks completion
employees early duration time in task duration project tasks
Total
8 Noticeable impact on risk/opportunity profile of the entire company Sub-total 0 0 7 3 10 25 15 4 3 5 3 Sub-total
9 Major impact on risk/opportunity profile of the entire company Pol/Legal Economic Social/Human Technical Cost Technical Social/Human Economic Pol/Legal
-Unplanned cost -New/changed
Table 1 Scoring Criteria Definitions
TABLE 01. Scoring Criteria Definitions -Company financial -Unforeseen technical -Unforeseen technical
increases for labor and -Extra expenses due to -Extra expenses due to -Inflation in economy governmental
situation changes difficulties by project difficulties by
Risk non-labor resoruces in longer training needed difficulty in acquiring driving up costs over regulation/law adding Risk
making project funding team slow progress and 11
suppliers/vendors slow
This scoring guide provides suf�icient range of scoring from the very minor risks/oppor- probalmatic
company driving up
project costs
for project team
raise costs
Total
progress and raise costs
skills in job market for budget unplanned dollars to
project
This scoring guide provides sufficient range of scoring from the very minor
tunities to those that
risks/opportunities could
to those thathave
couldahave
major impact
a major on the
impact �irm.
on the It is
firm. also
It is alsoquite
quitepossible that
Sub-total 2
The value of these last two graphics -Unplannedis
2 1 3
that they gave a quick pictorial representation of the
cost
8 26 18 3
-Unforeseen technical
5 4 6 Sub-total

-Company of
relative criticality financial
the various risks -New/changed
possible
many ofthat
themany of the risks/opportunities
risks/opportunities show in show
theinMRA
the MRA example
example template
template shown below will
shown decreases for and opportunities.
labor and In the
-Reduced expenses due above
-Expanded Risk
scopeAssessment,
due to it can bebenfits by -Reduced expenses due -Deflation in economy
situation changes governmental
below will receive a 0 for being not applicable for a project. quickly seen
Opportunity that there is an external
making project funding
technical
non-labor resoruces in tofactor that presents
shorter training technical greatest from to the Time suppliers/vendors
the efficiencies to ease in acquiring skills driving down costs
regulation/law reducing
Opportunity
receive a 0 for being not applicable for a project. element of assured
the project. company driving down needed for project team will justify price increase increase progress and in job market for below budgeted costs
costs of project
Table 2 is a notional example of the MRA framework in practice. The narrative descriptions project costs Total lower costs
in each2of are onlyof
meant to be used as a starting guide forThe TheSub-total
Opportunity Assessment,
3 on the 7other hand, shows0 that there are two 3 Internal 13
elements
28 that
15 2 5 6 2 Sub-total
Table is the below cells
a notional example the MRA framework in practice. discovering the descrip-
narrative will present the greatest opportunity for exploitation; Time and Cost.
unique risks and opportunities of a project. The project planner’s task is to at least consider TABLE 02. Notional example of the MRA framework
tions in each of the
the risk/opportunity below in
presented cells
eachare
[Link] meant
If it does notto be used
apply, deleteas
theatext
starting guide for dis-
in the cell, Table 2 Notional
The Action Plan example of the MRA framework
score the block
covering a 0 and move
the unique risksonand
to the next cell. If theofrisk/opportunity
opportunities a project. The does apply, change
project planner’s task
• AUTHOR •
the wording if needed, score the cell and move on to the next cell to the table is complete. project planner with
After identifying a basis to consider
the high-priority risks uniquethe
risks and opportunities, to final
theirpart
project.
of theThis framework
project planners
is to at least consider the risk/opportunity presented in each cell. If it does not apply, job is to determine
encourages the approaches
a deliberate to use for implementing
and structures review of a their risk/opportunity
project’s action plan to
risks/opportunities
(Hillson, 2001).
delete the text in the cell, score the block a 0 and move on to the next cell. If the risk/ FIGURE 04. Summary Opportunity Assessment Radar Chart help ensure the project’s success.
Table5 are approaches commonly used for this purpose:
opportunity does apply, change the wording if needed, score the cell and move on to DR. J. RICHARD HORNE retired from the US Federal
The value of these last two graphics is that they gave a quick To manage Risks To manage Opportunities government after 35 years. His last job was as a senior
the next cell to the table is complete. 9
9 Avoid Taking actions to remove the Exploit
Take actions to help to ensure
pictorial representation of the relative criticality of the various underlying cause of the risk to that the opportunity in fact does
management analyst/Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt
At this point, the worksheet is divided into two parts, an assessment of the risks and for the Headquarters, US Marine Corps and worked
At
risks and opportunities. In the above Risk Assessment, it can prevent its occurring occurs
At this
this point,
point, the
assessmentthe worksheet
worksheet
of the
is
is divided
opportunities.
into
divided The two
two parts,
into rationale an
an assessment
parts,behind
assessment
this split
of
of
is
the
the
that
risks
risks
the
and
and assessment
assessment
nature of the Transfer Taking actions to move the Share Collaborate with some other
at the Marine Corps Logistics Base in Albany, GA. He
actions be quickly seen that there is an external technical factor that
specialized in process analysis and improvement
of
of the
the opportunities.
opportunities. The
The rationale
rationale behind
behind this
this split
split is
is that
that the
the nature of the
nature of the management
management actions responsibility of responding to entity, either inside or outside of
initiatives in the logistics arena. Previously, I was
taken management
to mitigate actions
risks are taken
very to mitigate
different from risks
the are very
management different
actionsfrom the
taken
taken to mitigate risks are very different from the management actions taken to exploit tomanagement
exploit presents the greatest from to the Time element of the project. the risk to another party the organization to share in the
a long-time employee for the US Navy in Jacksonville, FL. He worked in
opportunities.
opportunities. This
This will
actions taken will be
be addressed
addressed
to exploit later
later (Kwan
opportunities. This&
(Kwan Leung,
&will
Leung, 2011).
2011). later (Kwan & Leung,
be addressed work.
enterprise business analysis, strategic planning, internal auditing, security
Mitigate Taking actions to reduce the Enhance Taking actions to increase the
The Opportunity Assessment, on the other hand, shows that administration, aviation maintenance, and supply. He has been a part-time
A
A summary
2011). of
summary of the
the above
A summary
aboveof risk
thedata
risk above
data points
riskindicates
points data points
indicates the following:
theindicates
following:the following: likelihood of occurrence and/or magnitude of the positive
there are two Internal elements that will present the greatest the effect of the negative risk, outcome of the opportunity college instructor for over 15 years teaching graduate and under-graduate
Summary business courses, teaching at several Universities. Dr. Horne received his
Summary RiskRisk Assessment
Assessment opportunity for exploitation; Time and Cost. should it occur. occurring
Doctorate in Business Administration from NOVA Southeastern University in
Internal External Accept Taking no actions shown Ignore Taking none of the above actions
Internal External Ft. Lauderdale, FL. The topic of my dissertation was a quantitative study of
Int above to prevent the risk from but waiting for the opportunity
Int Pol
Pol Int
Int Eco
Eco IntSoc
IntSoc Int
Int Tec
Tec Ext
Ext Pol
Pol Ext
Ext Eco
Eco ExtExt Soc
Soc Ext
Ext Tec
Tec quality management systems and its impact on corporate performance. He
THE ACTION PLAN
happening by readying a to occur
Scope
Scope 1
1 11 4
4 22 4
4 2
2 3
3 3
3 response in case it does occur retired from the US Army Reserve after 30 years and service, spending about

---------------------
Time 1 2 1 3 3 4 5 7 half the time in logistics roles and the other half in military intelligence.
Time 1 2 1 3 3 4 5 7 TABLE Risks/Opportunities
Table 5 Strategies to Manage 05. Strategies to Manage Risks/Opportunities
Cost
Cost 2
2 22 1
1 33 3
3 5
5 4
4 6
6 12. Conclusion
After identifying the high-priority risks and opportunities, the �inal
• REFERENCES •
Table TABLE 03. Summary of Risk Data Points
Table 3
3 Summary
Summary of
of Risk
Risk Data
Data Points
Points part of the project planners job is to determine the approaches to
The article proposes an extension of current project risk evaluation techniques using a multi-
dimensional approach. It uses a template which is easily constructed using COTS spreadsheet
A summary
A summary of theofabove
the above opportunity
opportunity data points
data points indicates
indicates the following:
the following: use for implementing their risk/opportunity action plan (Hillson, software to help structure the information and perform basic mathematical operations (Taroun &
A summary of the above opportunity data points indicates the following: Boateng, P., Chen, Z., Ogunlana, S., in
& theIkediashi, D. Institute AnnualtoSeminars & Symposium. Nashville: Project Tran, D. Q., & Molenaar, K. R. (2014). Exploring critical
Yang, 2013). The definitions provided above example are not meant be prescriptive but,
Summary
Summary Opportunity
Opportunity Assessment
Assessment
2001). Table5 are approaches commonly used for this purpose: (2013). A system
provided dynamics
the project approach
planner with a to riskstodescription
basis in unique
consider risks Management
to their Institute.
project. This delivery selection risk factors for transportation design
Internal External megaprojects . Organization,
framework encourages Technology
a deliberate and&structures
Management in of a project’s risks/opportunities to
review and construction projects. Engineering, Construction and
Internal External Kutsch, E., Denyer, D., Hall, M., & Lee-kelley, E. (2013).
Int
Int Pol
Pol Int
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Int Tec
Tec Ext
Ext Pol
Pol Ext
Ext Eco
Eco ExtExt Soc
Soc Ext
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Tec CONCLUSION Construction,
help ensure 594-693.
the project’s success.
Does risk matter? Disengagement from risk management
Architectural Management, 631-647.

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Time 0 0 7 3 4 3 5 3 of Information Systems, 637-649.
Time 0 0 7 3 4 3 5 3 Innovation Management, 25-40. project utililtzing a risk mapping tool. International Project
Cost
Cost 3
3 7
7 0
0 3
3 2
2 5
5 6
6 2
2
The article proposes an extension of current project risk evaluation Kwan, T. W., & Leung, H. K. (2011). A Risk Management
Fabricius, G., & Buttgen, M. (2015). Project managers' Management Association World Congress (pp. 519-528).
TABLE 04. Summary of Opportunity Data Points techniques using a multi-dimensional approach. It uses a template Methodology for Project Risk Dependencies. IEEE Dubrovnik: Elsevier.
overcon�idence: how is risk re�lected in anticipated project
Table
Table 44 Summary
Summary of of Opportunity
Opportunity Data
Data Points
Points success? Business Research, 239-263. Transactions on Software Engineering , 635-648.
which is easily constructed using COTS spreadsheet software to Zoltán, S., & Tamás, T. (2014). A Revised Interpretation of
To To readradar
the radar charts below, the
notice the abbreviations for each of the PEST cate- Fang, C., & Marle, F. (2012). A simulation-based risk network Taroun, A., & Yang, J.-b. (2013). A DST-based approach Risk in Project Management. Periodica Polytechnica. Social
To read
read the
the radar charts
charts below,
below, notice
notice the abbreviations
abbreviations forfor each
each ofof the
the PEST
PEST categories,
categories, to
to help structure the information and perform basic mathematical for construction project risk analysis. The Journal of the and Management Sciences, 119-128.
gories, to clearly distinguish between theExternal
Internalfactors.
and the External factors. These model for decision support in project risk management.
clearly
clearly distinguish
distinguish between
between the Internal
the Internal and
and the
the External factors. operations (Taroun & Yang, 2013). The de�initions provided in the Decision Support Systems, 635-644. Operational Research Society, 1221-1230.
Zwikael1, O., & Ahn, M. (2011). The Effectiveness of Risk
These Summary Assessments can beshown
shown graphically for a clearer picture as shown 3 e
These Summary
Summary Assessments
Assessments can
can be
be shown graphically
graphically forfor aa clearer
clearer picture
picture as
as shown
shown Figure
Figure 3 e above example are not meant to be prescriptive but, provided the Hillson, D. (2001). Effective Strategies for Exploiting Thamhain, H. (2013). Managing Risks in Complex Projects. Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across
4:
4: Figure 3 e 4. Opportunities. Proceedings of the Project Management Project management journal, 20-35. Industries and Countries. Risk Analysis, 25-37.

92 JOURNAL OF MODERN PROJECT MANAGEMENT • SEPTEMBER/DECEMBER • 2017 2017 • [Link] 93

Common questions

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Overconfidence can reduce a project planner's awareness of risks, leading to a biased assessment and inadequate planning for potential risks . This assumption of guaranteed project success may decrease the thoroughness of risk assessments, resulting in unacknowledged risks that could potentially impact the project's success .

Assessing both internal and external factors provides a thorough examination of potential risks, helping project planners make informed decisions about mitigation strategies . This dual assessment allows project managers to distinguish between controllable risks and those that require external adaptation, enabling more strategic allocation of resources and prioritization of risk management efforts .

A multi-dimensional framework considers a variety of risk factors beyond the conventional scope, cost, and schedule, accommodating the diverse challenges that large and complex projects face . This comprehensive approach ensures that project managers do not overlook critical aspects by forcing a detailed review across multiple dimensions, potentially improving project success rates through enhanced preparation .

Mapping tools provide a structured approach to visualize and prioritize risks, addressing scalability issues inherent in traditional assessments by offering dynamic insights as project phases evolve . They enable project managers to track evolving risk profiles through different project stages, adapting strategies as new risks emerge, thus making it easier to handle the complexity of large-scale projects .

A cross-functional team approach leverages diverse expertise from different domains, improving the identification and mitigation of risks through varied perspectives and collaborative problem-solving . This approach fosters robust risk responses by utilizing insights from all relevant sectors, enhancing the project team's ability to preemptively address and reduce the impact of risks .

Integrating social, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors (STEP) into risk assessment frameworks acknowledges the diverse risks a project may encounter, promoting a comprehensive evaluation process . This integration allows project managers to account for both endogenous and exogenous factors, providing a nuanced understanding of potential threats and better preparing them for complexities unique to specific projects .

The Dempster-Shafer theory enhances risk management by allowing decision-makers to incorporate the uncertainty and incompleteness of information directly into their assessments . This theory-based framework can help project managers better visualize and handle risks, especially when perfect information is not available, thereby offering a more flexible and transparent approach to risk management .

The PMBOK guide suggests using inputs such as project scope, schedule, cost management plan, communications plan, enterprise environmental factors, and organizational process assets to establish a solid information base for risk assessment . However, these elements may not be exhaustive in identifying unique project risks, necessitating a creative approach from the PM and the risk planner .

Identifying risk dependencies in IT projects allows project managers to address interconnected risks more effectively, ensuring that mitigating one risk does not inadvertently exacerbate another . This expanded methodology fosters a holistic view of project risks and enhances the ability to preempt potential compound effects stemming from these interdependencies .

Risk management practices, even at moderate levels, are shown to significantly mitigate negative impacts on project success, especially in complex projects where the stakes are higher . By proactively identifying and addressing risks, such practices provide a buffer against uncertainties and facilitate smoother project execution, thereby increasing the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes .

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