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Modern vs Traditional Sector Dynamics

The document discusses a graphical model of economic development and the potential for multiple equilibria. It uses diagrams to show how increasing returns in a modern sector can lead to coordination failures that prevent development, even when modernization would increase overall output and welfare. Three different potential wage levels are examined that could result in traditional or modernized equilibrium outcomes.
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Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • training effects,
  • profitability,
  • wage structures,
  • economic coordination,
  • consumer goods,
  • market entry,
  • sectoral productivity,
  • labor allocation,
  • market forces,
  • market dynamics
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
82 views13 pages

Modern vs Traditional Sector Dynamics

The document discusses a graphical model of economic development and the potential for multiple equilibria. It uses diagrams to show how increasing returns in a modern sector can lead to coordination failures that prevent development, even when modernization would increase overall output and welfare. Three different potential wage levels are examined that could result in traditional or modernized equilibrium outcomes.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • training effects,
  • profitability,
  • wage structures,
  • economic coordination,
  • consumer goods,
  • market entry,
  • sectoral productivity,
  • labor allocation,
  • market forces,
  • market dynamics

The Big Push: A

Graphical Model
Assumptions

• Factors: We assume that there is only one factor of


production—labor. It has a fixed total supply, L.
• Factor payments: The labor market has two sectors. We assume that
workers in the traditional sector receive a wage of 1 (or normalized to
1, treating the wage as the numeraire; that is, if the wage is 100
rupees per day, we simply call this amount of money “1” . Workers in
the modern sector receive a wage W 7 1.
• Technology: We assume that there are N types of products, where N is a large
number.
o For each product in the traditional sector, one worker produces one unit of output.
This is a very simple example of constant-returns to- scale production.
o In the modern sector, there are increasing returns to scale
o The labor requirements for producing any product in the modern sector take the
form L = F + cQ, where c < 1 is the marginal labor required for an extra unit of
output.
• Domestic demand: We assume that each good receives a constant and
equal share of consumption out of national income. The model has
only one period and no assets; thus there is no saving in the
conventional sense. As a result, if national income is Y, then
consumers spend an equal amount, Y/N, on each good.
• International supply and demand: We assume that the economy is
closed. This makes the model easy to develop.
Conditions for Multiple Equilibria
To begin, suppose that we have a traditional economy with no
modern production in any market.
• A potential producer with modern technology (i.e., a
technology with fixed costs and increasing returns) considers
whether it is profitable to enter the market.
• Given the size of the fixed cost, the answer depends on two
considerations: (1) how much more efficient the modern sector
is than the traditional sector and
(2) how much higher wages are in the
modern sector than in the traditional sector.
• production functions are represented for the two types of firms
.
• The traditional producers use a linear technique with slope 1,
with each worker producing one unit of output.
• The modern firm requires F workers before it can produce
anything, but after that, it has a linear technique with slope 1/c
.
• Price is 1, so revenues PQ can be read off the Q axis.
• For the traditional firm, the wage bill line lies coincident with
the production line (both start at the origin and have a slope of
1).
• For the modern firm, the wage bill line has slope W 7 1.
• At point A, we see the output that the modern firm will
produce if it enters, provided there are traditional firms
operating in the rest of the economy. Whether the modern firm
enters depends, of course, on whether it is profitable to do so.
• first consider a wage bill line like W1 passing below point A.
With this relatively low modern wage, revenues exceed costs,
and the modern firm will pay the fixed cost F and enter the
market.
• In general, this outcome is more likely if the firm has lower
fixed costs or lower marginal labor requirements as well as if
it pays a lower wage.
• By assumption, production functions are the same for each
good, so if a modern firm finds it profitable to produce one
good, the same incentives will be present for producing all
goods, and the whole economy will industrialize through
market forces alone; demand is now high enough that we end
up at point B for each product
• This shows that a coordination failure need not always
happen: It depends on the technology and prices (including
wages) prevailing in the economy.
• If a wage bill line like W2 holds, passing between points A and B, the firm
would not enter if it were the only modern firm to do so in the economy
because it would incur losses.
• But if modern firms enter in each of the markets, then wages are
increased to the modern wage in all markets, and income expands.
• We may assume that price remains 1 after industrialization. Note that the
traditional technique still exists and would be profitable with a price
higher than 1.
• So to prevent traditional firms from entering, modern firms cannot raise
prices above 1.24 The modern firm can now sell all of its expanded
output (at point B), produced by using all of its available labor allocation
(L/N), because it has sufficient demand from workers and entrepreneurs
in the other industrializing product sectors.
• As can be seen , with prevailing wage W2, point B is profitable after
industrialization because it lies above the W2 line. Workers are also at
least as well off as when they worked in the traditional sector because
they can afford to purchase an additional quantity of goods in proportion
to their increased wage, and they have changed sectors voluntarily.
• All of the output is purchased because all of national income is spent on
output; national income is equal to wages plus profits, the value of which
is output of each product times the number of products N.
• Thus with a prevailing wage like W2, there are two equilibria:
one in which producers with modern techniques enter in all
markets, and profits, wages, and output are higher than before;
and one in which no modern producer enters, and wages and
output remain lower.
• The equilibrium with higher output is unambiguously better,
but in general, the market will not get there by itself.
• A final possibility is found in a wage bill line like W3, passing
above point B.
• In this case, even if a modern producer entered in all product
sectors, all of these firms would still lose money, so again the
traditional technique would continue to be used.
• In general, whenever the wage bill line passes below
point A, the market will lead the economy to modernize,
and whenever it passes above A, it will not.
• The steeper (i.e., more efficient) the modern-sector
production technique or the lower the fixed costs, the
more likely it is that the wage bill will pass below the
corresponding point A.
• If the line passes above B, it makes no sense to
industrialize. But if the wage line passes between points
A and B, it is efficient to industrialize, but the market
will not achieve this on its own.
• Be sure to note that these are three different wages that
might exist depending on conditions in a particular
economy at one point in time, not three wages that occur
successively.
• Again, the problematic cases occur when the wage bill line
passes between A and B, thus creating two equilibria: one in
which there is industrialization and the society is better off
(point B) and one without industrialization (pointA).
• However, the market will not get us from A to B because of a
coordination failure.
• In this case, there is a role for policy in starting economic
development.
• There is no easy test to determine where a traditional
economy, such as Mozambique, is located on this continuum.
But at least we can begin to understand why development
often has not gotten under way, even when technology was
available.
Other Cases in Which a Big Push May Be
Necessary
•Intertemporal effects
•Urbanization effects
•Infrastructure effects
•Training effects

Common questions

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A closed economy setting in the Big Push model simplifies the assumptions by focusing solely on internal factors like national income without international trade effects. In this setting, all consumption derives from national production, and there are no savings, which means national income is fully spent on goods produced within the economy . This leads to outcomes where any change in production methods directly affects national income and consumption patterns. Closed economies emphasize the role of collective domestic demand dynamics and wages in achieving equilibrium at point B, where industrialization is sustainable . This also highlights the need for coordination since there are no external markets to absorb surpluses or deficits.

Prevailing prices and wages are critical determinants of market-driven industrialization in the Big Push model. A lower modern sector wage (below point A) makes industrialization directly profitable because it reduces costs relative to revenue, encouraging modern firms to enter the market . Conversely, a higher wage (above point B) would make it unfeasible for modern firms to sustain operations, leading to continued reliance on traditional production methods . Price stability (at price level 1) maintains competitive pressure, ensuring that traditional methods cannot re-enter the market once modern methods have been adopted . Thus, the interaction between wage levels and prices dictates whether the market can autonomously transition to an industrialized state.

A coordination failure can occur because the decision to adopt modern technology depends not just on individual profitability but also on the actions of other firms. Even with available technology, if the prevailing market conditions result in a wage bill line that passes between critical points (A and B), firms individually may not find it profitable to switch to modern methods due to insufficient collective demand . This creates a situation where, even though industrialization would benefit all through higher output and income (point B equilibrium), the market fails to achieve it autonomously due to lack of coordination among different market players. External intervention by policy can be necessary to resolve this failure .

The decision for a modern firm to enter the market in a traditional economy is influenced by efficiency and wage considerations. Specifically, the firm evaluates how much more efficient it is compared to traditional methods and the level of wages it must pay. If the modern firm faces low fixed costs or marginal labor requirements, or if it pays a relatively low wage, it is more likely to find entry profitable . Additionally, if a wage bill line like W1 passes below point A, revenues exceed costs, encouraging the modern firm to enter the market . The coordination among firms and external factors like technology and prevailing prices also play roles .

Technological efficiency in the Big Push model is vital for determining the likelihood of transitioning from a traditional to a modern economy. The model assumes increasing returns to scale in the modern sector, allowing a more efficient (steeper slope in the production line) production process compared to the linear method of the traditional sector . A higher efficiency suggests a steeper production function for the modern sector, making it more likely that the wage bill line will fall below the necessary thresholds for profitable entry, thus supporting industrialization . Therefore, technological efficiency is directly linked to the ability of modern firms to lower costs and compete with traditional practices, fostering economic development.

Multiple equilibria arise in the Big Push model due to the interplay between wage levels and production efficiency. Specifically, conditions such as a wage bill line passing between key points A and B create situations where both an industrialized and a non-industrialized equilibrium can exist . In one scenario, modern firms enter all markets if the overall incentives make it profitable (point B), while in the other, they stay away if initial conditions deter profitability (point A). These scenarios are reliant on the size of fixed costs, wage levels, and whether there are sufficient incentives for technological adoption across different sectors . The market's inability to transition from point A to B on its own due to coordination issues can also lead to these dual equilibria.

In the Big Push model, the position of the wage bill line is crucial in determining the industrialization process. If the wage bill line passes below point A, it indicates that revenues exceed costs, thus prompting the market to lead the economy towards modernization . However, if it passes above point B, even an attempt by modern producers across all sectors will result in losses, preventing industrialization. A wage line between points A and B indicates a situation where industrialization is beneficial but requires external coordination since the market alone won't move from point A to B due to a coordination failure .

The assumption of no saving in the Big Push model means that all national income is immediately spent on consumption, which affects economic dynamics by directly linking production levels to consumption demands . This leads to an environment where changes in output or production efficiency have immediate effects on national income distribution and spending patterns. This also implies that any profits made by modern firms return to the economy through wages and consumption rather than being saved or invested, causing a constant flow within the economy and reinforcing the importance of internal demand for sustaining industrialization . It limits the economy's ability to accumulate capital for further investment independently, underscoring the role of coordinated market expansions.

Policy interventions aimed at addressing coordination failures in the Big Push model can include subsidizing entry costs for modern firms, ensuring wage policies that increase profitability for these firms, and providing infrastructure and training to reduce transition barriers . Governments may implement strategic investments in areas where technological advances are necessary to stimulate initial growth. Additionally, policy measures could ensure collective demand by coordinating sectoral development to move the economy from a low-wage equilibrium at point A to a high-output equilibrium at point B, where the economy benefits from modern industrialization . Effective measures should focus on overcoming market inertia and enabling a coordinated shift across sectors.

Urbanization can serve as a catalyst for requiring a Big Push in economic development by concentrating labor, resources, and markets, which magnify both the benefits and challenges of transitioning to modern industrial production. As populations move to urban centers, infrastructure demands increase and provide opportunities for economies of scale . This concentration facilitates efficient communication and coordination among firms, which are necessary for overcoming coordination failures inherent in transitioning from traditional to modern production methods. Additionally, urbanization can lead to increased demand for diversified goods and services, creating a larger domestic market capable of absorbing the increased outputs from modernized production processes . Thus, urbanization amplifies the potential impact of a Big Push, making it a vital consideration in planning for economic transformation.

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