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Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow

Simulation

Article in European Journal of Scientific Research · August 2013

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European Journal of Scientific Research
ISSN 1450-216X / 1450-202X Vol. 109 No 4 August, 2013, pp.633-649
[Link]

Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia:

Part I – Flow Simulation

Tajudeen M. Iwalewa
Earth Sciences Department
King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.
E-mail: tajudeen@[Link]
Tel: +966-5327-37260; Fax: +966-3-860-2595

Mohammad H. Makkawi
Earth Sciences Department
King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

Abdalla S. Elamin
Water Resources Section, Center for Environment and Water
Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani
Earth Sciences Department
King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

The crux of this research is quantitative assessment of groundwater resource at

KFUPM campus and evaluation of aquifer system’s sustainability for three long-term
alternative development schemes. Numerical simulation technique was used to assess the
effects of increasing pumping rates on the piezometric surface in Umm Er Radhuma (UER)
aquifer of the area and to predict future potentiometric levels. A groundwater flow model
was developed and calibrated for the area. The simulation spanned 44 years; from 1967 to
2010. The calibrated model was subsequently utilized to predict the piezometric levels of
the aquifer over a planning horizon of 20 years (2011-2030) under the prescribed
alternatives. The results showed that Alternative Scheme II, which assumed conservative
measures, is the best for long-term sustainability of groundwater resource in the area. The
method applied in this work would serve as a useful reference in groundwater management
in Saudi Arabia and other arid regions.

Keywords: Groundwater management, arid climate, numerical simulation, alternative

development schemes, sustainable development.
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 634

1. Introduction
King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) is located in the city of Dhahran in the
Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. It covers an area of approximately 4.8 km2, and is confined within
26o17’27.92’’ - 26o19’16.80’’N latitudes and 50o08’15.96’’ - 50o08’59.29’’E longitudes (Figure 1).
The elevation of the area varies from 55 to 100 m, with an average of 77 m; reference is mean sea level
(RMSL). The Eastern Province has extremely arid climate with an annual rainfall of 90 mm/year; July
and August are the hottest summer months during which there is no rainfall. The maximum mean
precipitation is recorded in January. Maximum evaporation of 15 mm/day and minimum evaporation
of 5 mm/day are recorded in June and January, respectively, with 3,590 mm as the annual mean
potential evaporation for the Eastern Province (Al-Amoud, Al-Tokhais, Awad, Alabdulkader, Al-
Moshailih, Basahi, Al-Dakheel, Alazba and Al-Hamed, 2010). The monthly average maximum air
temperature ranges from 20.1°C in January to 42°C in July, with an annual mean of 32.3°C. The
monthly minimum air temperature ranges from 10.2°C in January to 26.9°C inJune, with an annual
mean of 19.3°C. Air relative humidity is lowest during the month of June (23%) and reaches its highest
monthly average (70%) in December, with a mean of 43% per year (PME, 2010).

Figure 1: Location map of the study area.

Due to the desert nature of Saudi Arabia and exiguity of perennial water, groundwater has been
the major source of water supply. The 1997 estimate of water supply in Saudi Arabia indicates that
groundwater accounts for 83% of total water supply (Abderrahman, 2001). The influential role play by
groundwater as a source of water supply in Saudi Arabia has motivated various regional groundwater
studies. In particular, there have been significant groundwater studies in the Eastern Province and these
have been documented in various published and unpublished reports. For example, a groundwater
study of North Eastern Saudi Arabia with descriptions of water potential of the major aquifers and
regional investigations on water quality of the aquifers was conducted by (Naimi, 1965). Powers,
Ramirez, Redmond and Elberg (1966) studied the sedimentary geology of Saudi Arabia covering the
entire eastern half of the country. Italconsult (1969) produced reconnaissance regional topographic and
water level maps of the Eastern Province at 1: 500,000 scale as part of studies on water and agricultural
635 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani

development for the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. A regional hydrogeological investigation of the
aquifers of the Eastern Province was carried as part of Al Hassa Development Project by BRGM
(1977). This study involved various pumping tests and regionalvalues of the parameters of the aquifers
were obtained. A regional study of Umm Er Radhuma (UER) aquifer which involved pumping tests
and investigations of the parameters of the aquifer was conducted by GDC (1979). Backiewicz, Milne
and Noori (1982) carried out investigations on the hydrogeology of UER aquifer in Saudi Arabia and
provided information on depositional and fossil records of the aquifer. Abderrahman and
Rasheeduddin (1994) used a numerical simulation technique to predict future levels and water quality
of UER aquifer in the Greater Dhahran Area under different pumping scenarios. In a recent study, GTZ
(2006) developed a mathematical model for UER and the overlying aquifers, and provided
comprehensive information about the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the investigated
formations of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary age within the Eastern Province. A numerical
simulation model of multi-aquifer system including Dammam and UER aquifers was developed by
Abderrahman, Elamin, Harazin and Eqnaibi (2007) to assess the behavior of the aquifer system under
long-term water stresses in Dammam Metropolitan Area. KFUPM (2009) developed a numerical
simulation model as the prominent part of Groundwater Resources Study for the Dammam-Khobar-
Dhahran Metropolitan Area.
Evidently, all the past groundwater studies in the Eastern Province were regional in scope and
therefore are most likely susceptible to sizable approximations of the aquifer systems’ parameters and
behaviors, hence, may be less reliable. However, this study presents a more focused groundwater study
of KFUPM campus, which is a smaller locality within the region.

2. Development of Flow Simulation for the Area

Developing a modeling concept is the initial and the most important part of every modeling effort
(Nevin 1997). It requires a thorough understanding of hydrogeology, hydrology and dynamics of
groundwater flow in and around the area of interest.

2.1. Conceptual Model

Based on the geological and hydrogeological settings of the study area, a conceptual model of the
aquitard-aquifer system was constructed (Figure 2). It depicts a single aquifer (UER aquifer) overlain
by an aquitard (Rus aquitard). UER aquifer constitutes one of the most important regional aquifers in
eastern Saudi Arabia. In the study area, UER aquifer composed of limestone and dolomitic limestone,
while Rus aquitardis made up of chalky limestone. Dammam aquifer, also of hydrogeologic
significance in the region, is absent in the study area but outcrops in the surrounding areas. This may
be attributed to paleo-erosion that had probably taken place in the area. Therefore, Dammam aquifer
was not included in the model.
The aquitard-aquifer system as defined for the model included the following layers, from top to
bottom:
Layer 1: The Rus aquitard
Layer 2: The UER aquifer, which is unconfined throughout the study area
UER aquifer has an average thickness of 85 m as defined for the model. The average values of
top and bottom elevations of the aquifer are 35 m (RMSL) and -50 m (RMSL), respectively. The upper
surface of the aquifer is the potentiometric surface (PS). Therefore, the aquifer was considered locally
as unconfined in the model because the PS is below the bottom of the aquitard.

2.2. Discretization of the Study Area and Boundary Conditions

Within the model area, grids with irregular grid sizes in both x- and y- directions were [Link]
axis of the irregular finite difference mesh is rotated 41 degrees out of the northern direction so that the
grid is orientated in the direction of the general groundwater flow. The horizontal non-uniform square
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 636

grid comprised 50 rows and 34 columns in the steady-state, and 69 rows and 52 columns in the
transient-state, with a grid spacing of approximately 65 m in cells where pumping wells are absent and
approximately 33 m in cells surrounding the pumping wells. The total number of cells is 1700 in the
steady-state and 3588 in the transient-state. A comprehensive review of the literature revealed that the
present study has a finer mesh than all the previous studies inthe Eastern Province.
For vertical discretization, two layers were defined according to the conceptual model. These
layers were assigned to the two hydrogeologic units in the study area as Layer 1 and Layer 2 for Rus
aquitard and UER aquifer, respectively.
As the area is devoid of natural boundaries such as rivers and streams, which is typical of arid
regions, the boundaries of the model were positioned at the point of contact of Rus-UER aquitard-
aquifer system with the outcrops of Dammam aquifer. In the steady-state, all boundaries of the model
were assigned as constant head. A constant head is justified because no pumping was taking place prior
to 1967, which was considered as the starting period for the model. In the transient-state, variable head
boundaries were assigned to the model. As the research objective is to simulate the effects of pumping
on the aquifer system over a long period of time, the choice of variable head boundary for the transient-
state is substantiated as this enables time-step drawdown to be measured relative to the applied
stresses. The boundaries were at least 200 m away from the nearest pumping well in the modeling
domain. Therefore, any stress in the model area would not have profound effect on the boundaries.

Figure 2: Conceptual model of the groundwater system of the study area.

2.3. Initial Piezometric Condition

Initial piezometric surface contour map of Umm Er Radhuma aquifer in the study area was constructed
from regional water level maps and data from previous investigations. Pseudo-steady-state conditions
for the study area were developed as shown in Figure 3, which represents the year 1967 conditions.
Analysis of the piezometric surface map of UER aquiferin the study area showsa general flow
pattern from southwest to northeast of the study area. The velocity of flow varies between 0.00014 m/s
and 0.00074 m/s, with highest occurring at the central (anticlinal) part of the study area. This flow
637 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani

pattern may be affected by local structural factors. Hydraulic gradients vary from 1.2 x 10-4 through 5.0
x 10-4, with an average of 2.8 x 10-4. The hydraulic gradients are higher at structural highs than at
slopes. This reflects changes in transmissivity, possibly caused by karstification, facies and thickness
variations. The general piezometric pattern, the flow pattern and the hydraulic gradient distribution in
the study area are consistent with the regional hydrogeologic, structural and lithologic information
contained in previous regional studies.

Figure 3: Initial pieziometric level (1967 conditions), groundwater flow patternand velocity of flow in the
UER aquifer of the study area.

2.4. Input Parameters

2.4.1. Hydraulic Parameters
The zoning of hydraulic conductivity (K) in the model area is shown in Figure 4. The distribution of K
values reflects heterogeneity of UER aquifer in the study area. The horizontal K values range between
50 and 350 m/day. The vertical K values were taken as one-tenth of the horizontal K values. The
specific yield, Sy, values range from 0.04 through 0.07. Values of Kand Sy in the study area were
compared with regional ranges of 8.64 to 864 m/day for K and 0.01 through 0.07 for Sy obtained by
GTZ (2006). This shows that the K and the Sy values used in the model were consistent with the
regional values contained in the past study.
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 638
Figure 4: Hydraulic conductivity (in m/day) distribution in the study area.

2.4.2. Historical Well Abstractions

The present study relied mainly on detailed well abstraction data from KFUPM Maintenance
Department. Previous history of water abstraction by GDC (1980) shows that year 1967 was relatively
stable in terms of water abstractions. Therefore, the base year for steady-state simulation was taken as
1967 and all calculations were made from that year.
Since 1967 till date, there have been a total of twelve pumping wells in the study area. At some
points in time, a well is added either to meet an increased water demand or as a replacement for a pre-
existing well that is not functioning. The history of the pumping wells (Table 1) was taken into
consideration in the transient-state simulation.
639 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani
Table 1: History of Groundwater Wells at KFUPM

PRODUCTION HISTORY DATA

Year Total Static Water Capacity
Well Easting Northing Year cancelled
drilled Depth(m) Level(m) (m3/day)
W-1 414299.91 2910207.29 1967 Still Existing 146 1967: 70.12 2180
1990: 76.00
W-2 414569.39 2909808.62 1974 Still Existing 121 59.45 2180
W-3 414592.98 2909252.47 1974 Still Existing 117 58.00 5451
W-4 414221.82 2908686.19 1976 2003 110 1976: 55.18 5451
1984: 57.00
W-5 414819.14 2908867.26 1978 Still Existing 155 61.00 2180
W-6 415042.87 2909283.51 1978 Still Existing 154 1978: 50.30 5451
1989: 54.50
W-7 415353.67 2911004.70 1979 Still Existing 150 1979: 39.93 5451
1990: 49.00
W-8 414299.09 2910769.49 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data
W-9 414297.79 2910361.96 1967 2003 120 69.00 4361
W-10 415427.70 2909355.29 1995 Still Existing 120 52.00 5451
W-11 415026.14 2910895.04 2004 Still Existing 150 55.00 4361
W-12 414427.00 2909510.00 1998 Still Existing 120 60.00 5451

3. Modeling Technique
The present study used the "Visual MODFLOW", which is the numerical simulator interface of
MODFLOW of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This interface develops three dimensional
groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. Visual MODFLOW is an easy to use pre- and
post- processor for the MODFLOW. The modular structure of the computer code of MODFLOW
consists of a main program and a series of highly independent subroutines called modules (McDonald
and Harbaugh 1998).

3.1. Steady-State Calibration

Regional piezometric level map constructed by Italconsult (1969) was extrapolated to obtain the 1967
piezometric map of the study area. This map represents the hydraulic head levels prior to major
development activities in the study area. Twelve observation wells were assumed in the model and
used in simulating the piezometric head in 1967. The model was run for 1 day.
The model was calibrated against the 1967 piezometric level data. This was achieved by
superimposing the computed piezometric levels on the pre-development piezometric levels. The result
of the comparison (Figue 5) shows a near perfect match between the observed and the simulated heads
at steady-state.
Statistical analysis was performed by VISUAL MODFLOW after manual trial-and-error
adjustment of the input parameters, which was based on the best knowledge of hydrogeology of the
area. It involves regression analysis and the calibration of Root Mean Squared Error (RMS) and Mean
Absolute Error (MAE). The results of comparison between the calculated and observed head at steady-
state (Figure 6) gave residual mean of 0.043 m, absolute residual mean of 0.055 m, root mean square of
0.066 m and 95% confidence interval. Maximum residual was noticed in OBS No. 5 and minimum
residual was recorded by OBS No. 8. These figures confirmed that there was a very small discrepancy
between the calculated and the observed heads.
The steady-state water balance of the aquifer showed that about 16,149 m3/day of water enters
the UER in the study area from the southwestern boundary. The water that leaves the study area via the
northeastern boundary was 9,609 m3/day. The total well discharge was 6,541 m3/day. Vertical leakages
into the aquifer and out of the aquifer were calculated as zero by the MODFLOW.
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 640
Figure 5: Comparison between observed and calculated heads in UER of the study area (1967 steady-state
calibration).

Figure 6: Steady-state model calibration

641 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani

3.2. Transient-state Simulation

Based on the established patterns of the aquifer parameters obtained during the steady-state calibration,
the model was subjected to transient-state simulation for a period of 45 years; between 1967 and year
2010 (inclusive of both years). Stress period duration was for one year, i.e., 365 days. Therefore, the
total simulation period for the transient state was 16,425 days. The simulation period was divided into
45 stress periods. Boundary conditions specified for the steady state were changed from constant head
to variable head to consider changes in stress with time. External stresses were based on the pumping
history of the wells and starting conditions were those obtained from the final run of the steady-state
simulation. The final run of the transient-state simulation resulted in prediction of potentiometric
surface in the study area at the end of year 2010 (Figure 7). An average drawdown of 8.5 m was
recorded between 1967 and year 2010. Higher drawdowns were recorded in areas where wells are
located than other areas. Cones of depression were formed at well locations as obvious indications of
stresses.

Figure 7: Potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2010(transient-state simulation).
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 642

Volumetric budget at the end of the transient state shows that volume of water entering the
study area was 39171 m3/day, while that flowing out was 1496 m3/day. Total well discharge was
recorded as 38143 m3/day. Vertical leakages into and out of the aquifer were calculated as zero by
MODFLOW, resulting in a water loss of 4 m3/day.

3.2.1. History Matching

Available measured water level data were obtained from KFUPM Maintenace Department for Wells 4,
6, 7 and 10. The measured water level data were used for comparison and verification of the simulated
water levels in the transient-state. The measured water level data were from 1 to 4 stress periods and
were measured in 1967, 1984, 2003 and 2005 for Well 4; 1978 and 1989 for Well 6; 1979 and 1990 for
Well 7; and 1995 for Well 10. Simulated heads obtained at the pumping wells were almost in
accordance with the measured potentiometric heads as shown in Figure 8 (A through D). There was a
good match in terms of trends and values, which confirms that the model is capable of representing the
flow system and valid as a predictive tool for future water management in the study area.

Figure 8 (A - D): Hydrographs showing comparison between simulated and observed heads (transient-state
model verification)
643 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani
Figure 8 (A - D): Hydrographs showing comparison between simulated and observed heads (transient-state
model verification) - continued

4. Alternative Development Schemes

The successfully calibrated and verified simulation model was used for formulating various alternative
water development schemes. The alternative schemes were selected with careful considerations given
to future developmental plans of the study area.
A planning horizon of 20 years (2011 - 2030) was selected for three alternative scenarios. The
duration of the planning period is less than the length of the period for which the model was calibrated
and validated. Starting conditions in each case were those obtained during the transient-state
simulation.
To obtain estimates of abstraction rates for the planning period (2011-2030), real data on
KFUPM population were used and trend of population growth of people living on campus at KFUPM
(Table 2) was taken into consideration in the formulation of the alternative pumping schemes.
According to the Agricultural Unit of KFUPM (personal communication, 16 Feb 2011),
average water use for irrigation at KFUPM is estimated as 32,192 liter/day, while 300 liter/day was
assumed as normal water consumption for an individual. The per capita water consumption was
multiplied with the total population for each year to obtain the domestic water use. Taking the
population trend into consideration, domestic water use per day was added to irrigation water use per
day to obtain the total water consumption at KFUPM per day for the 20-year planning period (2011-
2030).
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 644

4.1. Alternative Scheme I

In this alternative, a double of the assumed normal water consumption per day for an individual was
considered as the water consumption per capita per day; that is, 600 liter/day (0.6 m3/day). This value
was multiplied with the total population to obtain the total water use for domestic purpose per day for
each year according to the population trend.
For water use for irrigation, the base value of 32,192 liters was assumed to be increasing at
0.005% every year. This equals 10% increase over 20 years. The total pumping rate for all the wells
was divided among the 9 wells (existing as at year 2010) based on the pumping capacities of the wells
to obtain the pumping rate for each well. An additional well was introduced in the model to
accommodate excess volume of water outside the pumping capacities of the existing wells.
Figure 9 shows the potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 for Alternative
Scheme I. The potentiometric surface contour map shows that water levels in the study area would
drop from the average of 3.2 m (RMSL) obtained at the end of year 2010 to an average of -2.2 m
(RMSL) in year 2030. This result is equal to an average drawdown of 5.4 m in the study area over the
20-year planning period.

Table 2: KFUPM On-campus Population Trend Estimate between 2011 and 2030

POPULATION TREND
*Population of
**Population of Total Population on
Year Faculty (including Population Trend
Students on Campus Campus
families) on Campus
2003 4051 4297 8348 8352
2004 4136 4379 8515 8426
2005 4248 4506 8754 8588
2006 4113 4627 8740 8765
2007 4119 4821 8940 9075
2008 4082 4951 9033 9253
2009 4211 4971 9182 9283
2010 4535 5175 9710 9577
2011 9680
2012 9858
2013 10035
2014 10212
2015 10389
2016 10566
2017 10743
2018 10920
2019 11097
2020 11275
2021 11452
2022 11629
2023 11806
2024 11983
2025 12160
2026 12337
2027 12514
2028 12692
2029 12869
2030 13046
*Obtained from KFUPM Faculty and Staff Housing
**Obtained from KFUPM Student Housing Unit
645 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani
Figure 9: Potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 (Alternative I).

4.2. Alternative Scheme II

In this alternative, conservatory measures were adopted. Water consumption per capita per day was
kept at the normal rate of 300 liter/day (0.3 m3/day). Water use for irrigation was assumed to be
decreasing at the rate of 1% per year, which is equivalent to 20% decrease over the 20-year planning
period. The total pumping rate was shared among the existing wells at KFUPM based on the capacities
of the wells.
Figure 10 shows the potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 for Alternative
Scheme II. The results imply that if Alternative Scheme II is implemented, water level in the study area
would drop from the average of 3.2 m (RMSL) obtained at the end of year 2010 to an average of 0.2 m
(RMSL) in year 2030. This result is the same as an average drawdown of 3 m in the study area over the
20-year planning period.

4.3. Alternative Scheme III

In this alternative, a scenario similar to what currently exists at KFUPM was adopted. Water
consumption per capita per day was assumed to be 450 liter/day (0.45 m3/day). This was multiplied
with the population trend to obtain the domestic water use for each year. Constant rate of 32,192
liter/daywas assumed for water use for irrigation. Both the domestic water use and water use for
irrigation were added to obtain total water consumption (total pumping rate) for each year.
Figure 11 shows the potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 for Alternative
Scheme III. The potentiometric surface contour map shows that water levels in the study area would
drop from the averageof 3.2 m (RMSL) obtained at the end of year 2010 to an average of -0.9 m
(RMSL) in the year 2030, which is equal to an average drawdown of 4.1 m in the study area over the
20-year planning period.
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 646
Figure 10: Potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 (Alternative II)

Figure 11: Potentiometric surface contour map at the end of year 2030 (Alternative III)
647 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani

4.4. Comparative Assessment of the Three Alternative Development Schemes

Average drops in water levels for the three alternative development schemes for the 20-year planning
period were plotted in the form of hydrographs. Figure 12 (A through D) shows the hydrographs
comparing the three alternative development schemes for Well 1, Well 2, Well 3 and Well 12. From
the hydrographs, it is apparent that Alternative I has the highest drops in water levels throughout the
20-year planning period. For Alternative III, the drops in water levels in the wells for the planning
periods were significantly high. Drops in water levels in the wells for Alternative II are the lowest for
all the planning periods. The water levels in the pumping wells for Alternatives I and III are expected
to fall below the mean sea level by the end of year 2030, while water levels in the wells for Alternative
II are expected to be above the mean sea level.

Figure 12 (A – D): Hydrographs comparing drops in water levels for the three alternatives for the 20-year
planning period
Groundwater Management Case Study, Eastern Saudi Arabia: Part I – Flow Simulation 648
Figure 12 (A – D): Hydrographs comparing drops in water levels for the three alternatives for the 20-year
planning period. - continued

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1. Conclusions
1) At local scale, significant variations in hydraulic parameters were found. The general trend was
such that the UER aquifer was highly transmissive along structural highs and not as
transmissive at slopes.
2) Total abstraction from UER aquifer in the study area increased from 2.4 MCM in 1967 to 13.9
MCM in 2010, which represents an increase of about 480 %. An average decline in water level
of 8.5 m was recorded.
3) Three different Alternative Development Schemes were formulated and analyzed to predict
future responses of the calibrated groundwater flow model. Alternative Scheme II, which
assumed conservative measures: 300 liters per capital per day and a decrease of 20% in
pumping over the 20-year planning period for irrigation water use, is considered the best
alternative. The results indicate that decline in water level would be 3m by year 2030 in
comparison with 5.4 m and 4.1 m declines for Alternatives I and III, respectively.

5.2. Recommendations
The results of this study show that Alternative II is the best to protect the water levels of the aquifer.
This shows that water conservation by reduction of 20% in irrigation water use over the 20-year
planning period is essential for protection of long-term groundwater level in the study area. It is,
therefore, recommended that studies on water conservation for irrigation purposes should be
investigated. For example, use of treated wastewater could be a good source to green the University in
order to preserve the UER for more important purposes. Replacement of grasses with granites in some
parts of the campus might also be a good alternative.
Future plan for drilling new wells may be beneficial if the new wells are located in the
southwest of the study area, where cones of depression are minimal. Any plan to locate a new well in
the northeast of the study area is strongly discouraged.

Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the Earth Sciences Department, Maintenance Department, Department of
Faculty and Staff Housing, Student Housing Unit, Agricultural Unit and Research Institute of King
 649 Tajudeen M. Iwalewa, Mohammad H. Makkawi, Abdalla S. Elamin and Abdulaziz M. Al-Shaibani

Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals for their cooperation and supports towards the completion
of this study.

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[3] Abderrahman, W. A., Rasheeduddin, M., 1994. ‘’Future Groundwater Conditions under Long-
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[4] Al-Amoud, A. I., Al-Tokhais, A. S., Awad, F. S., Alabdulkader, A. M., Al-Moshailih, M.,
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estimating water requirements for economical crops in Saudi Arabia’’. King Abulaziz City for
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