Management and Production Engineering Review

Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023 • pp. 100–108

DOI: 10.24425/mper.2023.147207

Short-term Fluctuations and Fluctuations in the Development

Dynamics of Fixed Assets of Industry
Saltanat BEISEMBINA, Mamyrbek BEISENBI, Nurgul KISSIKOVA, Aliya SHUKIROVA
Department of System Analysis and Management, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan

Received: 02 August 2023 Abstract

Accepted: 05 September 2023 The purpose of the article is to create a concise nonlinear mathematical model for analyz-
ing the growth of fixed assets in a specific industry. The emergence of chaotic behaviour in
economic systems was explored, focusing on fluctuations. The study employed methods such
as systems analysis, correlation analysis, nonlinear dynamics, and differential equations. It
was identified that sharp technological innovations as the primary drivers of short-term fluc-
tuations impacting fixed asset development. The resulting nonlinear dynamic model allowed
for flexible operation, transitioning between equilibrium, periodic, and chaotic states based
on coefficient values for asset growth rates and time constants reflecting economic system
dynamics.

Keywords
Nonlinear dynamic model; Strange attractor; Life cycle; Econometric models; Asset manage-
ment.

Introduction “crises” in socio-economic, biological, and medical sys-

tems, etc. The deterministic chaos mode in the eco-
nomic system occurs as fluctuations, which, at a cer-
When studying fluctuations, it does not matter tain frequency and amplitude lead to a “crisis”, that is,
which indicator of economic activity is considered. business cuts economic activity down (Mankiw, 2002).
Most macroeconomic variables that measure one or It is necessary to consider in more detail the issue
another type of income, expenditure or production, of short-term economic fluctuations, which are also
are changed to a large extent synchronously (Kur- called business cycles in publications (Burlutski et al.,
manov, 2023). A more difficult task is to combine 2017; Lu & Su, 2011). Researchers identified the main
the causes of these fluctuations and the theory of features of short-term fluctuations, which included:
economic fluctuations remains debatable and requires recessions and upswings of uneven duration and sever-
systematic study within the framework of the mod- ity, the impact on the entire economy, their expan-
ern theory of dynamic systems (Mankiw, 2002; Ruelle sion and contraction, as well as their possible global
& Tacens, 1971). The studies at the end of the 20th impact. Four important monthly indicators used to
century revealed a wide variety of nonlinear systems date recessions were also identified: industrial produc-
dynamics and led to one of the most important dis- tion, total sales in production, wholesale and retail
coveries in nonlinear dynamic systems, deterministic trade, non-farm employment, real household income
chaos with the generation of a “strange attractor” (Ru- after tax payment (Lu & Su, 2011). In the study con-
elle & Tacens, 1971; Li & Yorke, 1975). Currently, it is ducted by (L. Lenart and M. Pipien (2013) two main
widely accepted that real dynamic systems are nonlin- reasons for the occurrence of short-term fluctuations
ear, often exhibiting deterministic chaos. This chaotic were suggested:
behaviour can have detrimental effects, leading to • markets need time to reach an equilibrium price
“separation” and “accidents” in technical systems and and quantity (companies rarely change prices, the
produced quantity is not in equilibrium during
the adjustment period, firms produce products to
Corresponding author: Saltanat Beisembina – Depart-
ment of System Analysis and Management, L.N. Gumilyov
meet demand at current prices);
Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan, e-mail: [Link] • changes in total costs at given prices affect the
bina09@[Link] output level (when costs are low, the output will
© 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the be below potential output, economy-wide changes
CC BY license ([Link] in costs are the main causes of the output gap).

100 Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023

 Management and Production Engineering Review

There are self-regulation mechanisms in the econ- Materials and methods

omy and, eventually, firms adjust to the output gap,
if costs are less than potential output (crisis gap),
firms slow down the increase of their prices. How- The work was done based on the provisions of eco-
ever, if costs exceed potential output (expansive gap), nomic theory, economic analysis, lifecycle theory, as
firms raise prices and there is a potential inflation- well as the system approach. To solve the set tasks,
ary pressure (Bashnyanyn, 2015). But the definition the following methods of scientific research were used:
of the cause of fluctuations in the development of analysis and synthesis to study the development of
the fixed assets of the industry is not clearly justi- economic cycles, correlation analysis to determine the
fied, and the structural and logical model of the in- connection between lifecycle of fixed assets and aver-
fluence of short-term fluctuations on the development age economic cycles, the nonlinear dynamics method
dynamics of fixed assets has not been defined. It is to build a dynamic model of the fixed assets develop-
not clear whether the state has the ability to pre- ment and their further study, and also the theory of
vent periods of short-term fluctuations or influence differential equations (Brock, 2001; Blokdyk, 2020).
their duration (Alieksieiev & Mazur, 2022). There- When conducting a structural and dynamic anal-
fore, considering the economy as a nonlinear dynamic ysis of fixed assets horizontal, vertical and trend
system to study the impact of fluctuations on the dy- analyses are used. During the analysis, it is advisable
namic development of fixed assets, to further improve to evaluate what part of all fixed assets are assets and
approaches to their management is a topical scien- determine their development trends over a certain
tific topic, an in-depth study of which will help in- period. If, upon availability of other constant factors,
crease the profitability and productivity of the indus- the share of active assets increases, then it can
try (Senchukov, 2019). Here it needs nonlinear mathe- be concluded that the production capacity of the
matical models that adequately describe the processes enterprise also increases. At the same time, it should
dynamics occurring in the economic system. Their be noted that an increase in the assets active part
system analysis is a much more complicated mat- is not always an objective indicator of an increase
ter, but it is necessary in solving many problems of in the production capacity of an enterprise due to
the economic development (Beisenbi, 2011; Beisenbi the chosen evaluation of such assets and depreciation
& Shuteeva, 2017; Beisenbi et al., 2017; Beisenbi & methods. It is also important to determine whether
Beisembina, 2020). the active part of fixed assets is technically advanced.
Economic development is directly determined by Determining the optimal ratio of active and passive
the quantity and quality of fixed assets. Therefore, (not directly involved in the process of production
the main purpose of the presented article is to study and provision of services) assets is an important
the scenarios of the generation of the deterministic condition for the effective use of assets. Therefore,
chaos mode with “strange attractor” (short-term fluc- it is necessary to evaluate all elements of material
tuations and fluctuations) in the economic system us- fixed assets and analyse their development reasons
ing the simplest nonlinear mathematical model of the (Magnitsky, 2011; Broer & Takens, 2017).
fixed assets dynamics of one industry. Practice shows that fixed assets elements are
The primary scientific novelty of this research lies changed in different ways. At the same time, it is im-
in its fresh approach to economic analysis by treating portant to analyse not only the entire fixed asset, but
the economy as a nonlinear dynamic system, diverg- also the dynamics of all its elements. This information
ing from traditional methods. It introduces a straight- analysis is especially significant if a longer period is
forward mathematical model for fixed asset dynamics analysed. This is due to the fact that some fixed as-
that enables the examination of intricate economic be- sets are rarely updated, as they can be used for a long
haviours. It establishes a previously unexplored link time. Active elements of tangible fixed assets should
between fixed asset lifecycles and economic cycles, uti- be updated more often, however, as practice shows, in
lizing advanced mathematical techniques like nonlin- some cases the passive part of assets increases faster.
ear dynamics and bifurcation analysis in an innovative The analysis of changes in fixed assets should be
economic context. Importantly, the research clarifies connected with compositional, structural and dy-
the relationship between growth rates, time constants, namic analyses, since the change in any element of
and fluctuations, presenting a novel insight into how assets affects the overall results of the composition,
economic parameters relate to instability. The pro- structure and dynamics of the development of fixed
posed model suggests potential applications in en- assets of the industry. The analysis of changes in the
hancing asset management and forecasting through fixed assets of the industry should be carried out
its unique nonlinear modelling approach. based on the most important elements of such as-

Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023 101

S. Beisembina et al.: Short-term Fluctuations and Fluctuations in the Development Dynamics . . .

sets. It is important to determine the reasons upon then the occurrence short-term fluctuations may lead
which there have been significant changes in certain to a nonlinear development of fixed assets lifecycle of
elements. Often, the changes in fixed assets are af- the industry and to fluctuations in the dynamics of
fected by the reconstruction, division or merger of an their development. The active production assets life-
enterprise, the changes in the organizational structure cycle averages 10-15 years and this cycle can be com-
and management system, improvement of production pared with the economic cycle of average duration
processes and forms of labour organization; restora- (Juglar cycle). To the reasons for economic cyclicality,
tion of worn and obsolete assets; the level of industrial C. Juglar added a delay in making investment deci-
specialization and cooperation; the change in the en- sions by launching new production facilities. In addi-
terprise geographical location, etc. tion, this includes the time lag between the decrease
It is very important to use fixed assets efficiently, in sales and the liquidation of operational capacities.
that is, all of their elements should in a sense con- As a result, C. Juglar cycles acquire additional dura-
tribute to the production, increase the provided ser- tion (Tuyakova & Cheremushnikova, 2016). Fixed as-
vices or achieve other purposes of the enterprise. To sets lifecycle is presented in the form of a diagram in
assess the efficiency of using fixed assets, it is sug- Figure 2. The diagram clearly shows the main Juglar
gested to evaluate them using various comparative cycle phases, such as recovery, upswings, recession and
coefficients (Nicolis & Prigozhin, 1990). depression.

Results and discussion

It is customary to refer to fixed assets both for

an enterprise and for the industry as a whole, fixed
production assets and fixed assets for non-production
purposes. Within the framework of the set purposes
in the present work, the main backgrounds for pro-
duction purposes, which make up approximately 95-
98% of the total value of the enterprise’s fixed as-
sets, and their lifecycle will be considered. Fixed assets
Fig. 2. Stages of fixed assets lifecycle are presented as an
for production purposes, in turn, are divided into an economic cycle
active part (working machines and mechanisms, ve-
hicles, power machines and mechanisms, production
implements) and a passive part (industrial buildings K.G. Liapis and D.D. Kantianis (2015) indicate
and structures, structures and transmission devices, that the main reasons for the occurrence of mid-term
household equipment) (Tamulevińienĺ, 2019). Fixed cycles are industrial transformations and new devel-
assets lifecycle is presented in Figure 1. opments. However, it cannot be stated that the rea-
sons are explained only in the technical direction, the
exchange sphere, distribution and consumption also
has an impact, therefore fixed assets lifecycle, as well
as the economic cycle should be considered as a multi-
vector process that depends on many factors leading
to the nonlinear development of fixed assets of the
industry.
Recently, a large number of approaches have been
Fig. 1. Fixed assets lifecycle
developed to manage fixed assets lifecycle. The main
approaches should be considered and the operation
In most works in the study of fixed assets lifecy- principles of them should be distinguished. Enter-
cle, they omit various options for their dynamic de- prise Asset Management (EAM) is the managing pro-
velopment in the process of creating finished prod- cess of physical assets lifecycle to maximise their use,
ucts, such as movement within the enterprise, repair which saves financial means, increase production qual-
or modernization, rental and inventory (King, 2011; ity and efficiency and protects health, safety and the
Fernandes & Pinto, 2018). But if consider fixed as- environment. EAM focuses on maintaining, monitor-
sets lifecycle from the perspective of economic cycles, ing, evaluating, and optimizing assets from acquisi-

102 Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023

 Management and Production Engineering Review

tion to disposal (Lutkevich, 2022). EAM is mainly that different asset classes undergo different lifecycle
used in industries that depend heavily on expensive stages. The choice of commercial equipment, such as
and complex physical assets such as vehicles, facto- dump trucks and rolling stock, can be an important
ries and heavy equipment, more often this is done decision, but the project stage is primarily an acqui-
with specialised EAM software. It is often used for sition stage, and not a complex design and assembly
this purpose, as it can provide a holistic view of an stage. Likewise, such stages as commissioning, trial
organization’s physical assets throughout their entire period and overclocking are likely to be fast events
lifecycle (Facility Force, 2023). The known users in- that do not require particular attention (Medvedieva
clude the oil and gas, shipbuilding, mining, energy, & Ahapova, 2020). But the managing of various pro-
government, utilities, aerospace and defence indus- duction stages still requires significant attention. Sim-
tries. Asset lifecycle management (ALM) is one of ilar comments can be made for facilities, information
the common features of the EAM software. There technologies (IT) and line assets, each of them goes
are four stages of asset lifecycle management, which through lifecycle stages in its own way with its own
include planning, procurement/acquisition, operation unique problems and requirements.
and maintenance, and disposal (Comparesoft, 2023). In the direction of studying the fluctuations impact
It covers the main stages of an asset’s lifecycle from on the development of fixed assets, it is necessary to
its initial design to planning for its production or con- consider how short-term fluctuations affect the pro-
struction, if it is a building or other infrastructure, in- duction in general, and, as a result, the development
cluding warranty management, decommissioning and of fixed assets in the industry. There are four major
disposal. ALM is a restricted approach to fixed as- factors that cause both long-term trends and short-
sets managing and includes a set of interrelated it- term fluctuations in the market. These factors are gov-
erative processes. During the design and assemble ernment, international transactions, speculation and
stage of a project, programs are managed to com- expectation, and supply and demand. Economic activ-
plete the project, at a much longer stage of operation ity can influence market trends, for the better or for
and maintenance, the process focuses on asset per- the worse. Government policy and geopolitical events
formance management, portfolio assets and project are factors that can lead to either stability or insta-
management leads the overall investment portfolio in bility in markets. Higher interest rates and taxes, for
assets in accordance with the strategic purposes of the example, can deter spending and result in a contrac-
company (Sheilagh, 2021). tion or a long-term fall in market prices. In the short
The fixed assets lifecycle model presented in this term, these news releases can cause large price swings
article has many more stages than the traditional as traders and investors buy and sell in response to
model on which fixed assets lifecycle management ap- the information (Mitchell, 2022). Fixed assets are for
proaches mentioned above are based (Hrabynska & long-term use and include land, buildings, leasehold
Kosarchyn, 2022). The weaknesses of the traditional improvements, equipment, machinery, and vehicles.
model with regard to short-term fluctuations (busi- Depreciation is listed with the cost of goods sold if
ness processes) are not in what activities they cover, the expense associated with the fixed asset is used in
but in the lack of sufficient detail to see the main life- the direct production of inventory. Examples include
cycle stages that support these processes and how the the purchase of production equipment and machinery
processes interact (Kozyk et al., 2018). Based on the and a building that houses a production plant (John
analysis, separate processes for operation, optimisa- F. Kennedy Memorial Library, 2023).
tion, maintenance and improvement have been iden- With short-term fluctuations, output gaps occur
tified, although they can be a part of the same or- between the actual and potential production of goods.
ganisational unit for operation and maintenance, the The output gap G is the difference between the actual
tasks and purposes of the people responsible for op- output of a product and its potential output in rela-
erating and maintaining the facility are completely tion to the potential output at a certain period in time
different. Another point to note is that the same de- and is described by the following formula:
sign, assembly, operation, optimisation, maintenance
and improvement processes are used for all of the or- G = [(Y − Y ∗)/Y ∗] × 100 (1)
ganisation’s assets. This is an important point that
is absent in the traditional model. While some of the where: Y ∗ is a potential output (Schuman &
individuals who perform these processes can be as- Brent, 2005).
sociated with a particular project or asset, the pro- Potential output, in turn, is the maximum sustain-
cesses themselves are not specific for a project or plant able output rate that the industry can produce, also
(Alieksieiev et al., 2014). It is also should be noted called output at full employment, using capital and

Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023 103

S. Beisembina et al.: Short-term Fluctuations and Fluctuations in the Development Dynamics . . .

labour at higher rates than usual and exceeding Y ∗ Indication of the nonlinear function through
for a certain period of time. It is stated that the pro- formula (3):
duction potential output grows over time, while the
actual output grows at a variable rate and reflects the fi (pi , xi , Li wi , r, k)
growth rate Y ∗, which takes into account the vari- 
n

able rates of technical innovation, capital accumula- 1 X 1 − hi 
= κ (1 − η) 1 − aij pj (t) +
tion, weather conditions, etc. At the same time, the Pi (t) j=1
1 + r(t)
actual output is not always equal to the potential out-
put (Blanchard, 2020). Based on the system analysis αi −1 βir(t)Fik (t)
× (xi (t)) (Li (t)) −
of a nonlinear dynamic mathematical model, it was xi (t)Pi (t)
determined that the development dynamics of fixed w (t)
asset of a separate industry strikes with an unimag- − (1 − γ) i Li (t) (3)
xi (t)
inable variety of behaviour types varying from simple
equilibrium points to multiple periodic (fluctuations) The nonlinear function was replaced in (2) and ob-
or chaotic depending on the value of some generalised tain the following expression of formula (4):
coefficient. Moreover, this complex behaviour is asso-
ciated with the loss of stability in the development fi (pi , xi , Li wi , r, k) =
of a fixed asset and the economic system as a whole. 
n

The development dynamics of fixed assets of the i- 1 X 1 − hi 
κ (1 − η) 1 − aij pj (t) + ×
th industry xi (t) of the economic system is described Pi (t) j=1 1 + r(t)
by the mathematical model of a multi-industry econ-
omy by a nonlinear system of differential equations αi −1 βi r(t)Fik (t)
(xi (t)) (Li (t)) − −
presented in formula 1 (Beisenbi, 2019): xi (t)Pi (t)
wi (t)
(1 − γ) Li (t), (4)
"
dxi (t) 1 xi (t)
= xi (t) κ(1 − η)
dt Txi
  The first approximation was represented relatively
n to x(t) and equation (2) at fixed values pj (t) = pj0 ,
1 − 1 X 1 − hi 
aij pj (t) + pi (t) = pi0 , xi (t) = xi0 , Li (t) = Li0 , r(t) = r0 ,
Pi (t) j=1 1 + r(t)
Fik (t) = Fi0
k
, wi (t) = wi0 as formula (5):
α−1 β r(t)Fik (t)
× (xi (t)) (Li (t)) − dx α γ1
xi (t)Pi (t) = x(1 − x) (5)
# dt T α
wi (t)
− (1 − γ) Li (t) − µi , where in formulas (6) and (7):
xi (t)
i = 1, . . . , n (2) T = Txi , x = xi (t), α = β − µi ,
 
n
where: Txi is the time constant of fixed assets that 1 X 1 − hi 
β = κi (1 − η) 1 − aij pj0 +
characterises the development dynamics of fixed as- pi0 j=1 1 + r0 (6)
sets of the i-th industry; κi , αi and βi are the parame-
k
ters of production function (αi +βi = 1), respectively; αi−1 βi r0 Fi0 wi0
(xi0 ) (Li0 ) − − (1 − γ) Li0
η is the tax rate on the income of the industry; αij xi0 Pi0 xi0
is the coefficient of material consumption of the i-th
products type for the j-th product; pj (t) is the price of γ1 = (αi − 1) κ(1 − η)
n
!
the j-th product; pi (t) is the price of products of the i- 1 X 1 − hi βi
th industry; hi is the share of the repaid loan from the 1− aij pj0 + (Li0 )
pi0 i=1 1 + r0
loan amount received by the i-th industry; r(t) is the
k
interest rate on the loan capital; L(t) is the number of αi −2 1 r0 Fi0 w i0
(xi0 ) + 2 + (1 − γ) 2 (7)
employees in the i-th industry of the economy; µi is 2 pi0 (xi0 ) 2 (xi0 )
the retirement rate of fixed assets of the i-th industry
of the economy; Fik (t) is the amount of credit funds The logistic equation (5) with ∆t = 1 can be repre-
of the i-th industry invested in the production devel- sented as a one-dimensional mapping in formula (8):
opment; γ is the social insurance coefficient; w i (t) is  α  γ1 
the wages level in the labour market. xn+1 = 1 + xn 1 − xn (8)
T α

104 Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023

 Management and Production Engineering Review

To analyse the generation scenario of short-term (formula (12)):

fluctuations and fluctuations we study the complex
behaviour of the one-parameter mapping (8) by grad- T +α
ϕ1 (x, α, γ1 , T ) x=0
= >1
ually increasing the parameter α/T in the range from T
(12)
α ≤ T to α > 3T and the changes in the dynamics of T −α
this point mapping will be monitored. The quadratic ϕ1 (x, α, γ1 , T ) x= yα
= <1
1 T
mapping ϕ : : R → R, is considered in formula (9),
where: Therefore, the point x1 = 0 is not stable,
because ϕ1 (x, α, γ1 , T ) x=0 > 1, and the other
T +α  γ1 
ϕ(x, α, γ1 , T ) = 1− x fixed point x2 will be stable (attractive), because
T α  ϕ1 (x, α, γ1 , T ) x= α ≤ 1. At α = 2T the point x2
T + α γ1 α y1
= x −1 (9) is still attractive though ϕ1 (x, α, γ1 , T ) x=0 = 1. It
T α γ1
is considered when α > 2T the mapping (4) undergoes
where: T > 0, α > 0, γ1 > 0. the bifurcation: the fixed point x2 becomes unstable,
This quadratic mapping (9) depends on the α, γ1 , T −α
because ϕ1 (x2 , α, γ1 , T ) = > 1 and instead
T parameters. The authors are interested  in the be- T
α of it the stable twofold cycle appears, defined by the
haviour functions ϕ(x, α, γ1 , T ) on the 0, inter- relation in formula (13):
γ1
val. The diagrams of all these functions intersect the 2   
α T +α

γ 2 α

x-axis at the x = 0, x = points. The global maxi- 2
x = ϕ (x) = x −x
γ1 T α γ
mum of the functions y = ϕ(x, α, γ1 , T ) is reached at   
α T +α α α T +α γ α
the point x = : ϕ(x, α, γ1 , T ) = . The × − x −x (13)
2γ1 T 4γ1 γ T α γ
k
stability of the fixed
points of the mapping ϕ , k ≥ 1,
where ϕk = ϕ ϕk−1 , ϕ0 = I is the identity mapping Since the fixed points ϕ are the fixed points for ϕ2 ,
will be studied. Firstly, the case k = 1 should be con- therefore (14):
sidered. From the relation x = ϕ(x, α, γ1 , T ) the next 2
γ2 α
  
formula is (10): T +α
−x
T α2 γ
  
T + α γ1 α
 
α T +α T +α γ 2
x 1− −x =0 (10) − x x −1
T α γ1 γ T T α
= d (x2 − x) x2 + ax + b


(14)
where (11):
α α From the polynomials equality of have (15):
x1 = 0, x2 = (11)
T + α γ1
(T + α)3 γ 3
d=
Thus, the points x1 , x2 are the fixed points of the T α3
operator ϕ, hence the fixed points  of the 2T + α α
 operator α=− (15)
α T +α γ
ϕk for all k ≥ 1. Moreover, from ϕ = 0 and  2
γ1 (2T + α)T α
b=
 
α
ϕ(0) = 0 it follows that ϕ = 0, k ≥ 1. Since (T + α)2 γ
γ1
α
ϕ (x, α, γ1 , T ) < 0 at k < 0 and x > . There- The new fixed points are the roots of the quadratic
γ1 equation (16):
α
fore, for x ≥ there cannot be the fixed point of x2 + ax + b = 0 (16)
γ1
k
the operator ϕ for all k ≥ 1. The function ϕ on
The discriminant D (17) is calculated:
α
the interval 0, increases from zero to the max-
2γ1  
 2 
α 2T + α
2  2
(2T + α)T α
T +α α α α D= −4
imum value and on the interval , γ T +α (T + α)2 γ
T 4γ1 2γ1 γ1  2
T +α α α (2T + α)(α − 2T )
decreases from to zero. Thus, at α ≤ 2T = (17)
T 4γ1 γ (T + α)2

Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023 105

S. Beisembina et al.: Short-term Fluctuations and Fluctuations in the Development Dynamics . . .

Whence it follows that D < 0 at α < 2T , therefore, The mechanism of further development of events is
at T < α < 2T the fixed points of the function ϕ2 (x) similar: at a certain value of the parameter (2.54 . . .)
α α T < α < α∞ = (2.56699 . . .) T (another bifurcation
are only the points x1 = 0 and x2 = If α ≥
T +αγ point) a stable cycle of order 2n−1 of the function
2T , then D ≥ 0 and (18): ϕ(x) splits into two, which form the cycle of order 2n ,
r ! (n = 1, 2, . . .). In this case, the “old” cycle loses the at-
α 2T + α α − 2T tractor properties, transferring them to the new cycle,
x3,4 = 1∓ (18)
2γ T + α α + 2T and αn is finite. Moreover, it turns out that αn < 3T .
Thus, the function ϕ(x) has cycles of order 2n at all
Note that at α = 2T three fixed points coincide natural n. The successive bifurcations of doubling pe-
α α
x2 = x3 = x4 = . The function derivatives riods of the attracting cycle of mapping (7) occur up
T +αγ to the value α = α∞ = T (2.5699 . . .), at which the
ϕ2 (x) at these points ϕ2 (x3 ) and ϕ2 (x4 ) do not exceed attracting cycle reaches an infinitely long period, and
unity in absolute value: cycles of periods 2n , n = 1, 2, . . ., will be repulsive.
 2    2 The quadratic mapping (7) in this case does not have
2 T +α γ 2 α cycles of other periods. At α∞ < α ≤ 4T the map-
ϕ (x3 ) =
T α γ2 ping has cycles with any period, including aperiodic
α T +αα T +α 2 trajectories. Such trajectories during the successive it-
− 2 x−2 x+6 x erations will wander in an irregular, chaotic manner
γ T γ T
α T +α α
T +αγ 3
 inside a quadrilateral of length and width
−4 x ≤1 (19) γ T 4γ
T α x=x3 Thus, at α < α∞ mapping (7) has a single stable cycle
of period 2n , which, apart from a set ofmeasure  zero,
and: α
attracts all points from the segment 0, . When
 2    2 γ
2 T +α γ 2 α α > α∞ , the dynamics of mapping (7) becomes more
ϕ (x4 ) =
T α γ2 complex. In this case, there are aperiodic trajecto-
α T +αα T +α 2 ries that are not attracted to cycles. The sequence of
− 2 x−2 x+6 x values αn , at which period doubling bifurcations are
γ T γ T
 observed, satisfies the simple law (21):
T +αγ 3
−4 x ≤ 1. (20) αn − αn−1
T α x=x3 = δ = 4.6692 . . . (21)
αn+1 − αn
This means that for the function ϕ2 (x) they are at-
The number δ is the Feigenbaum universal con-
tractors, therefore the corresponding second-order cy-
stant. It shows that the sequence of doubling bifur-
cle of the function ϕ(x) is an attractor. At α ∼
= 2T the
cations is universal. From the above conducted anal-
cycle doubled, a second-order cycle emerged from the
ysis of the fixed asset development model, it follows
first-order cycle, and the attraction property passed
that fixed assets and the economic system as a whole
to this new cycle, such values of the α parameter are
is developed without fluctuations as long as the con-
called bifurcation points. What happens with a fur-
ditions α ≤ 2T are met. Under certain relations be-
ther increase in the parameter α? Here it is necessary
tween the values of the growth rate of fixed assets
to consider already three functions ϕ(x), ϕ2 (x) and
α : α1 < α2 < . . . < αn < . . ., and time constant T
ϕ4 (x). The last of these functions is (in x) an 8th de-
the interval (2T < α < α∞ = T ∗ 2.5699 . . .) corre-
gree polynomial.√Its fixed points up to the value of the
sponds to the infinite sequence of bifurcations, each of
parameter α ≤ 6T are√only four fixed points of the
which leads to cycles of a higher order with a period
function ϕ2 (x). At α ≤ 6T , the function derivatives
doubling at each successive bifurcation. The values are
ϕ2 (x) at the points x1 , x2 , x3 and become equal to
accumulated near some special value α∞ , after which
1, and with further growth of α pairs of the function
orbits with an “infinite period” are obtained, that is,
fixed points ϕ4 (x) appear near each of them. For the
a strongly pronounced chaotic behaviour. Ultimately,
ϕ2 (x) function, these points form two stable cycles of
the entire space of the dynamical system states, de-
the second-order, and for the function ϕ(x) they form T +αα
a stable cycle of the fourth-order. At α > (2.54 . . .)T fined by the area of a quadrilateral of width
4T γ
this cycle becomes unstable, and it is replaced by the α
stable cycle of the period 8, etc. and length turns out to belong to a single chaotic
γ

106 Volume 14 • Number 4 • December 2023

 Management and Production Engineering Review

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