Fertility Rate
The fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to a woman over her
lifetime in a specific population. It is a key indicator of population growth.
Types of Fertility Rates:
1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR):
2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
Mortality Rate
The mortality rate is the measure of the number of deaths in a particular population
over a specific period, typically expressed per 1,000 individuals.
Graphical Representation
Here is a graph showing the trends in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Country A and
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) for Country B over five years.
Analysis
• Fertility Rate: There's a declining trend in the TFR for Country A, which
might indicate better access to family planning, education, and economic
changes.
• Mortality Rate: The IMR for Country B also shows a steady decline, likely
due to improved healthcare facilities and better maternal and infant care.
Malthus’s theory of population:
Thomas Robert Malthus (1776-1834) enunciated his views about population in his
famous book Eassay on the Principle of Population as it affects the Future
Improvement of Society, published in [Link]’s objection was that the
pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy perfection and
there would be misery in the world. Malthus was severely criticised for his
pessimistic views which led him to travel on the continent of Europe to gather data
in support of his thesis. He incorporated his researches in the second edition of his
Eassy published in 1803.
Malthus’s theory of population is based on the following three postulates:
i) Food is essential for man’s existence.
(ii) The passion between the sexes is essential and it will nearly remain in its present
state.
(iii) The law of diminishing returns operates in agriculture.
From these postulates, he deduced that “the power of population is indefinitely
greater than the power in earth to produce subsistence (food) for men”, and if the
increase in population is unchecked by preventive checks, it leads to vice or misery.
The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows:
1) There is a natural sex instinct in human beings to increase at a fast rate. As a
result, population increases in geometrical progression and if unchecked doubles
itself every 25 years. Thus starting from 1, population in successive periods of 25
years will be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 128, and 256 (after 200 years).
(2) On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow arithmetical progression
due to the operation of the law of diminishing returns, based on the supposition that
the supply of land is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods,
will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (after 200 years).
(3) Since population increases in geometrical progression and the food supply in
arithmetical progression, population tends to outrun food supply. In Malthus’s
words: “It is the constant tendency in all animated life to increase beyond the
nourishment prepared for it.” Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-
population.
Criticism:
❖ Neglected the Manpower Aspect in Population:
One of the principal weaknesses of Malthus’ thought has been that he neglected the
manpower aspect in population growth. He was a pessimist and dreaded every
increase in population. He forgot, according to Cannon, that “a baby comes to the
world not only with a mouth and a stomach, but also with a pair of hand.”
This implies that an increase in population means as increase in manpower which
may tend to increase not only agricultural but also industrial production and thus
make the country rich by an equitable distribution of wealth and income. As rightly
pointed out by Seligman. “The problem of population is not merely one of mere size
but of efficient production and equitable distribution.” Thus the increase in
population may be necessary.
❖ Population not related to Food Supply but to Total Wealth:
The Malthusian theory rests on a weak relationship between population and food
supply. In fact, the right relationship is between population and total wealth of the
country. If a country is rich materially and even if it does not produce enough food
for its population, it can feed the people well by importing food stuffs in exchange
for its products or money. The classic example is of Great Britain which imports
almost all its food requirements from Holland, Denmark, Belgium and Argentina
because it concentrates more on the production of wealth rather than on food
products. Thus the very basis of the Malthusian doctrine has been proved wrong.
❖ Importance given to only Food-grains for Livelihood:
Malthus gave importance to only food-grains for livelihood. But for livelihood,
food-grains alone are not enough. Fruits, meat, fish, milk, eggs, etc. can also be used
as food. They have high growth rate in comparison to the population growth. For
instance, a good breed of hen lays 240 eggs in a year. Similarly, one fish in a year
multiplies manifold. Thus, Malthus took an unrealistic view in comparing the
production of food-grains which increases in arithmetical progression with the
population growth which increases in geometrical progression.
❖ Increase in Population the Result of declining Death Rate:
The Malthusian theory is one sided. It takes the increase in population as the result
of a rising birth rate, whereas population has grown considerably the world over due
to decline in death rate. Malthus could not foresee the marvelous advancements in
the field of medical sciences which have controlled fatal diseases and made human
life longer. This has been particularly so in under-developed countries like India
where the Malthusian theory is said to operate.
❖ Sexual Desire not the same:
Malthus assumed that the sexual desire is the same in human beings. In fact, it differs
from person to person and depends on age, health and psychological and
environmental factors.
Application in Political Studies/Science
1. Resource Scarcity and Political Stability
• Malthusian Crisis and Conflict: Governments must address resource
scarcity to prevent social unrest and political instability. Political scientists
study how food shortages, water crises, and land disputes influence domestic
and international politics.
• Case Study: The Syrian Civil War (2011) was partially linked to drought-
induced migration and resource competition.
2. Population Policies and Governance
• Political systems often develop population control measures based on
Malthusian logic to prevent resource depletion.
• Examples:
o China's One-Child Policy (1979) was motivated by fears of
unsustainable population growth.
o India's family planning initiatives reflect similar concerns.
3. Environmental and Climate Politics
• Malthus's ideas underpin discussions on sustainability and environmental
governance. Overpopulation is often cited as a contributing factor to climate
change, deforestation, and pollution.
• Political agreements like the Paris Climate Accord address population
growth as a driver of resource depletion.
4. Global Security and Migration
• Malthusian pressure often triggers migration as people flee resource-depleted
regions.
• Political scientists analyze migration patterns and their impact on host
countries' security and policy responses.
5. Food Security and International Relations
• Governments and international organizations focus on food production and
distribution to prevent Malthusian crises.
• Political negotiations over food aid, agricultural subsidies, and technological
interventions in agriculture are shaped by these concerns.
Critique and Relevance in Political Studies
While Malthus’s predictions of imminent catastrophe have been mitigated by
technological advancements (e.g., the Green Revolution), his theory remains
relevant in political science for understanding:
• Long-term resource management strategies
• Geopolitical competition over scarce resources
• The political implications of demographic changes
Dixon's Theory of Environmental Scarcity and Its Relevance to Political
Studies
Thomas F. Homer-Dixon's theory of environmental scarcity explores how
diminishing natural resources and environmental degradation lead to social and
political instability, often triggering conflicts. Dixon classifies environmental
scarcity into three interrelated types:
1. Supply-Induced Scarcity
This occurs when environmental degradation reduces the availability of key
resources, such as freshwater, arable land, and forests.
Example: Deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Extensive deforestation has led to declining agricultural productivity, food
insecurity, and increased conflicts between farming and pastoralist
communities.
2. Demand-Induced Scarcity
This arises from a growing population or increased consumption of resources,
placing stress on limited supplies.
Example: Bangladesh’s Population Growth
• High population density in Bangladesh has led to stress on land, water
resources, and public services, intensifying social and political challenges.
3. Structural Scarcity
This form of scarcity results from unequal distribution of resources, where some
groups access sufficient resources while others are marginalized.
Example: Land Ownership Conflicts in Latin America
• Inequitable land distribution has fueled insurgencies and political violence,
such as in Colombia during the decades-long conflict.
Environmental Scarcity and the Rohingya Crisis in Bangladesh
The Rohingya crisis offers a contemporary example of how environmental scarcity,
combined with socio-political tensions, aligns with Dixon's theory:
1. Context of the Rohingya Crisis
The crisis began in 2017 when hundreds of thousands of Rohingya fled from
Myanmar to Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar due to ethnic violence and persecution by
Myanmar's military. Bangladesh now hosts around 900,000 Rohingya refugees in
makeshift camps.
2. Types of Scarcity in the Crisis
• Supply-Induced Scarcity:
o The sudden influx of refugees has put enormous pressure on
Bangladesh's limited resources, including deforestation for firewood
and depletion of freshwater sources in Cox's Bazar.
• Demand-Induced Scarcity:
o With high population density and limited land availability, Bangladesh
struggles to accommodate both its citizens and refugees.
• Structural Scarcity:
o Rohingya refugees face restricted access to essential services, such as
clean water, education, and healthcare, while local residents receive
government support, creating resentment.
Social and Political Implications
• Environmental Degradation:
o The camps have caused massive deforestation and soil erosion,
disrupting local ecosystems.
• Resource Competition:
o Tensions between local communities and refugees over limited
resources, such as water and employment, have intensified.
• Political Instability:
o Anti-refugee sentiments have fueled local protests and put pressure on
Bangladesh's government to seek international support for repatriation.
Relevance to Dixon's Theory
Dixon's framework provides a lens to understand the Rohingya crisis as an
environmental scarcity-induced conflict. The convergence of supply, demand, and
structural scarcity has heightened competition for resources, deepened social
tensions, and threatened regional stability.
Policy Recommendations
1. Resource Management: International aid should focus on environmental
restoration in Cox's Bazar, such as reforestation programs.
2. Equitable Resource Distribution: Ensure local communities benefit from
international support to reduce resentment.
3. Sustainable Refugee Solutions: Develop alternative livelihoods for
refugees that minimize environmental degradation.
4. Regional Cooperation: Promote dialogues with Myanmar and international
actors for a long-term resolution.
