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NVIDIA Equity Analyst Report 2025

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Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 5 Apr 2025 00:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD

| Exchange: NASDAQ - ALL MARKETS Page 1 of 25

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
94.31 USD 130.00 USD 0.73 2.30 USD Tril Wide 3 Large Growth Very High Exemplary ;;;;;
4 Apr 2025 21 Nov 2024 03:43, UTC 4 Apr 2025 2 Apr 2025 05:00, UTC

Price vs. Fair Value

Fair Value: 130.00

21 Nov 2024 03:43, UTC
120
Last Close: 94.31
90 Overvalued
Undervalued
60

0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
Analysis
1.54 1.52 0.73 1.03 1.03 0.73 Price/Fair Value
122.20 125.41 -50.26 238.98 171.24 -29.76 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 04 Apr 2025. Last Close as of 04 Apr 2025. Fair Value as of 21 Nov 2024 03:43, UTC.
Contents
Analyst Note (3 Apr 2025) Tech Hardware Supply Chains Hit by Current Tariffs, Services
Business Description
Business Strategy & Outlook (21 Nov 2024) Exempt Currently but Face Risks
Bulls Say / Bears Say (27 Feb 2025)
Analyst Note Eric Compton, CFA, Director, 3 Apr 2025
Economic Moat (21 Nov 2024)
Fair Value and Profit Drivers (27 Feb 2025) On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced wide ranging tariffs, affecting countries across the
Risk and Uncertainty (24 Aug 2023) globe. Technology stocks were hit hard in the aftermath, particularly those with hardware exposures.
Capital Allocation (21 Nov 2024)
Analyst Notes Archive Why it matters: Technology hardware supply chains are global and often concentrated in Asia.
Financials Increasing the costs of these supply chains will present immediate issues for hardware providers,
ESG Risk through lower margins, lower demand, or a combination of both.
Appendix
u Hardware supply chains are concentrated in Asia, with notable concentrations in China (34%
Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
additional tariff rate), Taiwan (32%), South Korea (25%), Japan (24%), Singapore (10%), Malaysia
Important Disclosure
The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of
(24%), Thailand (36%), and the Philippines (17%).
Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), and
u While supply chains are global and have some flexibility, there are few places to hide under the
Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please
visit: [Link] current tariff regime, aside from bringing manufacturing back to the US. We find reshoring highly
The primary analyst covering this company does not own its stock. unlikely in the near term, and even if it did occur, it would be extremely costly and inflationary.
The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a representation of Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk
1
u Under the current executive order, semiconductors are exempt, and only hard goods are being
Rating.
tariffed, which means services are implicitly exempt. Services would cover large swaths of the
technology sector, including software, consulting, and IT services.

The bottom line: We are maintaining our fair value estimates and Uncertainty Ratings across most of
tech for now but see heightened uncertainty and risks to the downside, depending on how long tariffs

© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 5 Apr 2025 00:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NASDAQ - ALL MARKETS Page 2 of 25

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Sector Industry
remain, if they are watered down, and what retaliations other countries choose.
a Technology Semiconductors
u Tariffs will hurt hardware supply chains, as such, we see hardware names as the most exposed.
Business Description
Hardware names with cyclical end market exposure are in the worst position, such as autos or
Nvidia Corp is an upfront developer of graphics
processing unit and a full-stack computing infrastructure industrials.
company with data-center-scale offerings that are u While services are exempt currently, we see an increased risk of retaliations from other countries
reshaping industry. Traditionally, GPU were used to that could specifically try to target services given the US is a net exporter of services, therefore giving
enhanvce experience,now Nvidia offers AI GPUs, and this vector more leverage.
also a software platform, Cuda, used for AI model
development and training. The company is also
Business Strategy & Outlook Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 21 Nov 2024
expanding its data center networking solutions, helping
to tie GPUs together to handle complex workloads. such Nvidia has a wide economic moat, thanks to its market leadership in graphics processing units, or GPUs,
as AI, model training and inference, data analytics,
hardware and software tools needed to enable the exponentially growing market around artificial
scientific computing, and 3D graphics, with vertical-
intelligence. In the long run, we expect tech titans to strive to find second-sources or in-house solutions
specific optimizations to address industries ranging from
healthcare and telecom to automotive and to diversify away from Nvidia in AI, but most likely, these efforts will chip away at, but not supplant,
manufacturing. Nvidia’s AI dominance.

Nvidia’s GPUs handle parallel processing workloads, using many cores to efficiently process data at the
same time. In contrast, central processing units, or CPUs, such as Intel's processors for PCs and servers,
or Apple’s processors for its Macs and iPhones, process the data of "0's and 1's" in a serial fashion. The
wheelhouse of GPUs has been the gaming market, and Nvidia’s GPU graphics cards have long been
considered best of breed.

More recently, parallel processing has emerged as a near-requirement to accelerate AI workloads.

Nvidia took an early lead in AI GPU hardware, but more important, developed a proprietary software
platform, Cuda, and these tools allow AI developers to build their models with Nvidia. We believe Nvidia
not only has a hardware lead, but benefits from high customer switching costs around Cuda, making it
unlikely for another chip designer to emerge as a leader in AI training.

We think Nvidia’s prospects will be tied to the AI market, for better or worse, for quite some time. We
expect leading cloud vendors to continue to invest in in-house, while AMD is also working on GPUs and
AI accelerators for the data center. However, we view Nvidia’s GPUs and Cuda as the industry leaders,
and the firm’s massive valuation will hinge on whether, and for how long, the company can stay ahead
of the rest of the pack.

Bulls Say Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 27 Feb 2025

u Nvidia’s GPUs offer industry-leading parallel processing, which was historically needed in PC gaming
applications, but has expanded into crypto mining, AI, and perhaps future applications too.
u Nvidia’s data center GPUs and Cuda software platform have established the company as the dominant
vendor for AI model training, which is a use case that should rise exponentially in the years ahead.

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Competitors
NVIDIA Corp NVDA Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD Intel Corp INTC Qualcomm Inc QCOM

Fair Value Fair Value Fair Value Fair Value

130.00 140.00 21.00 180.00
Uncertainty : Very High Uncertainty : High Uncertainty : Very High Uncertainty : High

Last Close
Last Close
Last Close
19.85 Last Close
94.31 127.46
85.76

Analysis
Economic Moat Security
Wide 1 Security
Narrow 2 Security
None 3 Security
Narrow 4
Currency USD USD USD USD
Fair Value 130.00 21 Nov 2024 03:43, UTC 140.00 5 Feb 2025 03:20, UTC 21.00 2 Aug 2024 03:48, UTC 180.00 28 May 2024 20:13, UTC
1-Star Price 227.50 217.00 36.75 279.00
5-Star Price 65.00 84.00 10.50 108.00
Assessment Undervalued 4 Apr 2025 Undervalued 4 Apr 2025 Fairly Valued 4 Apr 2025 Undervalued 4 Apr 2025
Morningstar Rating QQQQ4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC QQQQ4 Apr 2025 21:31, UTC QQQ4 Apr 2025 21:31, UTC QQQQ4 Apr 2025 21:31, UTC
Analyst Brian Colello, Strategist Brian Colello, Strategist Brian Colello, Strategist Brian Colello, Strategist
Capital Allocation Exemplary Exemplary Standard Standard
Price/Fair Value 0.73 0.61 0.95 0.71
Price/Sales 19.35 5.96 1.81 3.87
Price/Book 31.41 2.64 0.98 5.74
Price/Earning 34.63 85.89 — 15.25
Dividend Yield — 0.00% 1.11% 2.44%
Market Cap 2,301.16 Bil 139.33 Bil 86.56 Bil 140.97 Bil
52-Week Range 75.61—153.13 83.70—187.28 18.51—40.78 126.68—230.63
Investment Style Large Growth Large Blend Large Blend Large Value

u Nvidia is expanding nicely within AI, not just supplying industry-leading GPUs but also moving into
networking, software, and services.

Bears Say Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 27 Feb 2025

u Nvidia is a leading AI chip vendor today, but other powerful chipmakers and tech titans are focused on
in-house chip development.
u Although Cuda is a leader in AI training software and tools today, leading cloud vendors would likely
prefer to see greater competition in this space and may shift to alternative open-source tools if they
were to arise.
u Nvidia’s gaming GPU business has often seen boom-or-bust cycles based on PC demand and, more
recently, cryptocurrency mining.

Economic Moat Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 21 Nov 2024

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

We assign Nvidia a wide economic moat rating, thanks to intangible assets around its graphics
processing units and, increasingly, switching costs around its proprietary software, such as its Cuda
platform for AI tools, which enables developers to use Nvidia’s GPUs to build AI models.

Nvidia was an early leader and designer of GPUs, which were originally developed to offload graphic
processing tasks on PCs and gaming consoles. Nvidia has emerged as the clear market share leader in
discrete GPUs (over 80% share, per Mercury Research). We attribute Nvidia’s leadership to intangible
assets associated with GPU design, as well as the associated software, frameworks, and tools required
by developers to work with these GPUs. Recent introductions, such as ray-tracing technology and the
use of AI tensor cores in gaming applications, are signs, in our view, that Nvidia has not lost its GPU
leadership in any way. A quick scan of GPU pricing in both gaming and data center shows that Nvidia’s
average selling prices can often be twice as high as those from its closest competitor, AMD.

Meanwhile, we don’t foresee any emerging companies as becoming a third relevant player in the GPU
market outside of Nvidia or AMD. Even Intel, the chip industry behemoth, has struggled for many years
in trying to build a high-end GPU that would be adopted by gaming enthusiasts, and its next effort for a
discrete GPU is slated to launch in 2025. We do see integrated GPU functionality within many of Intel’s
PC processors, as well as portions of Apple’s and Qualcomm’s system-on-chip solutions in smartphones,
but we perceive these integrated solutions as “good enough” for nongamers, but not on par with high
end GPU needs.

GPUs perform parallel processing, in contrast to the serial processing performed by central processing
units used to run the software and applications on PCs, smartphones, and many other types of devices.
CPU examples include Intel’s and AMD’s PC and server processors, as well as Apple’s and Qualcomm’s
smartphone processors. These CPUs conduct serial processing of 0's and 1's in a particular order in
order to run an instruction set to run software and perform functions. In contrast, parallel processing
does not need to run in a linear order. This is particularly useful, for example, when capturing an image.
A GPU often has more cores than a CPU and performs simpler processing (such as capturing the data
within a single image pixel) but throws many more cores at the image to catch all of the data quickly. If
CPUs were to conduct this task, they would have to capture the pixels in order—one can envision the
CPU starting at the top and working its way down the image, while the GPU takes a snapshot in full.

In our view, the nature of parallel processing in GPUs is at the heart of Nvidia’s dominance in its various
end markets. PC graphics were the initial key application, allowing for more robust and immersive
gaming over the past couple of decades. Cryptocurrency mining also involves many mathematical
calculations that can run in parallel (in other words, each calculation is independent of the others),
again effectively “mining” crypto faster than a CPU.

In the past decade, however, the parallel processing of GPUs was also found to more efficiently run the

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

matrix multiplication algorithms needed to power AI models. AI development has two key phases. The
first is AI training. Using an image recognition example, developers might feed 50,000 images into a
model, labeling them as either a picture of a cat, or not a cat. The model will look for the various aspects
of each image and determine the scores and weights that are most common within a “cat” image. This
may be an image with whiskers (although mice have whiskers too) or one with pointy ears (although the
ears of a fox are also pointy), but a combination of all these factors may lead the model to effectively
recognize cats in future images.

The second AI phase is inference, where the AI model makes a decision on an image, based on its prior
training. In the cat example, the user would feed an unlabeled image into the model, and the model
provides an output of whether it recognizes a cat or not.

Similar techniques are used in large language models associated with generative AI. In these cases,
LLMs are fed with massive amounts of data, which may come from the internet, research papers,
databases, and so on Based on this data, the LLM determines scores and weights associated with
language, and which words are associated with one another.

As an overly simple example, a model might be asked to predict the word to come after “peanut butter
and…” “Jelly” might be the next word when thinking about food categories, although “peanuts,”
“honey,” or other foods could be matches. But if the model were to think of categories outside of food,
words like “diet,” “allergies,” or others could be fit. This leads to scores (that is, how often is “jelly” the
next food word, versus “honey,” and so on), but also the weighting of such dimensions (that is, how
often is the next word a food word, versus a health word, versus a geographic location, versus many
other types of categories).

GPUs are best suited to make these many billions of calculations needed for LLMs to predict the next
word in a query (GPT-3 was trained on 175 billion parameters, for example). More important, Nvidia
made shrewd moves to build and expand the Cuda software platform, creating and hosting a variety of
libraries, compilers, frameworks, and development tools that allowed AI professionals to build their
models. Cuda is proprietary to Nvidia and only runs on Nvidia GPUs, and we believe this hardware plus
software integration has created high customer switching costs in AI that contribute to Nvidia’s wide
moat.

Even if a chip competitor were to build a GPU on par with Nvidia, we surmise that the code and models
built on Cuda to date would not be ported over to another GPU, giving Nvidia an incumbency
advantage. It is conceivable that alternatives may emerge that might never touch Cuda or an Nvidia
GPU, but Nvidia had virtually no competition in this arena when everyone was focused on AI in 2022
and 2023, so any enterprise building an LLM but waiting for alternatives would have been left in the
dust.

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

In AI inference, we believe that a variety of chip solutions will be used over time to detect the patterns
and provide the output associated with AI models. CPUs handle many inference workloads today, but
GPUs will likely be part of the inference equation too. Meta Platforms even indicated that it is moving its
inference workloads to GPUs rather than CPUs. In a bullish scenario for GPU vendors, it’s possible that
GPUs might not only dominate AI training, but the vast majority of AI inference too.

Beyond Nvidia’s AI prowess today, which we believe is exceptionally strong, we think the company is
making the proper moves to widen its moat even further. Nvidia’s software efforts with Cuda remain
impressive, while Nvidia is also expanding into networking solutions, most notably with its acquisition of
Mellanox. We don’t want to discount Nvidia’s know-how here either. Many AI models don’t run on solo
GPUs, but rather a connected system of many GPUs running in tandem. Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink
products do a good job of connecting Nvidia GPUs together to run these larger models.

Nvidia is elbowing out even further with its DGX solutions, priced at well over six figures, which tie in up
to 8 GPUs into integrated solutions. Nvidia is even offering DGX Cloud and has hyperscaler partners
where Nvidia will run a portion of the customer’s data center to optimize AI workloads. In a best-case
scenario, Nvidia might not only have the best GPUs on the market, but the best cloud infrastructure in
AI, potentially becoming a cloud computing leader that enterprises might cherish even more than the
world’s leading hyperscalers today, such as Amazon’s AWS or Microsoft’s Azure.

Looking at the competitive landscape, AMD is a well-capitalized chipmaker with GPU expertise,
although we view the company as being in a position of weakness on the software front. Here, we think
switching costs around Cuda will keep Nvidia ahead of AMD for the foreseeable future, although the
key valuation question for both companies centers around how much business AMD can chip away
from Nvidia in the years ahead.

Perhaps the biggest threat might be from in-house chip solutions from hyperscalers, such as Google’s
tensor processing units, or TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium and Inferentia chips, or Microsoft’s and Meta
Platform’s chips in development. There’s no guarantee that any of these chips will be superior to
Nvidia’s GPUs across a wide range of applications, but it’s likely that each of these in-house chips might
perform specific workloads better than a general AI GPU from Nvidia or others.

However, we believe that cloud computing companies will have to offer their enterprise customers a full
menu of GPUs and accelerators so that they can run AI workloads. Amazon and Google may use
Trainium and TPUs to train their own AI models, respectively, but we think they may struggle to
encourage a host of enterprise customers to optimize their AI models for these in-house semis. Doing so
would prevent these enterprise customers from switching among cloud providers, and enterprises
typically loathe to be locked into a single vendor. Thus, neutral merchant GPU vendors will likely be
demanded by enterprise customers, and again, we foresee Nvidia remaining at the head of the pack for

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

quite some time.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 27 Feb 2025

Our fair value estimate is $130 per share. This fair value estimate implies an equity value of roughly $3.2
trillion. Our fair value estimate implies a fiscal 2026 (ending January 2026 or effectively calendar 2025)
price/adjusted earnings multiple of 29 times and a fiscal 2027 forward price/adjusted earnings multiple
of 24 times.

Our fair value estimate, and Nvidia’s stock price, will be driven by its prospects in the data center, or DC,
and AI GPUs, for better or worse. Nvidia’s DC business has achieved exponential growth already, rising
from $3 billion in fiscal 2020 to $115 billion in fiscal 2025. DC revenue remains supply-constrained and
near-term revenue will rise as more supply comes online. DC revenue exited fiscal 2025 at $35.6 billion
in the January 2025 quarter and a $142 billion annual run rate. We model incremental quarterly revenue
growth of about $4 billion per quarter in fiscal 2026, which brings our fiscal 2026 DC revenue estimate
to $183 billion. We then model 21% growth to $222 billion in fiscal 2027, and 12% growth to $249 billion
in fiscal 2028, resulting in a 29% CAGR from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028.

The main driver of this growth is an ongoing increase in capital expenditures in data centers at leading
enterprise and cloud computing customers. We think it is reasonable that Nvidia may face an inventory
correction or a pause in AI demand at some point in the medium term thereafter, so we model only 2%
growth in fiscal 2029. Excluding this one-year blip that we model, we anticipate average annual DC
growth of 10% thereafter and consider this to be a reasonable long-term growth rate as AI matures.
Toward the end of this decade, we think that cloud computing revenue at the hyperscalers can grow at
a low-teens rate, capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue remains at consistent levels at these
hyperscalers, and thus we model Nvidia’s revenue growth to be on par with these cloud computing
growth rates.

In gaming, which was formerly Nvidia’s largest business, we model $13.3 billion of revenue in fiscal
2026. We suspect that Nvidia may introduce a PC CPU in fiscal 2027, boosting revenue in this segment
(if such revenue is in fact reported here) to $17 billion. If and when this chip comes to market, we model
10% average annual revenue growth in gaming thereafter, bringing the total business to nearly $25
billion in fiscal 2030.

We have high hopes for Nvidia’s automotive business as greater processing power will be required in
active safety systems and autonomous driving. We model $2.3 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026 and
revenue growing at a 20% CAGR over the next decade to $12.2 billion of revenue in fiscal 2035.

In summation, Nvidia achieved 126% and 114% revenue growth in fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025,
respectively. While these percentages will represent peak growth rates, we still anticipate robust
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

growth for Nvidia in the years ahead. We model a three-year CAGR of 28% for Nvidia and long term,
midcycle growth in the low teens thereafter.

Nvidia’s massive DC growth has been gross margin-accretive, as GAAP gross margin expanded from
57% in fiscal 2023 to 75% in fiscal 2025. We model a near-term dip in gross margin to 73% in fiscal 2026
as Blackwell is a more costly product to ramp up. However, Nvidia expects mid-70% gross margins
exiting fiscal 2026. In the long-run, we anticipate that gross margin will compress modestly to the low-
70% range, as Nvidia will still be able to retain most of its pricing power in DC products, thanks to the
high switching costs associated with the Cuda platform.

Nvidia earned an exceptional 62% GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025, as it prospered from significant
operating leverage during the AI boom. We anticipate that GAAP operating margins will be in the 61%
range for the next three fiscal years and hover in the high-50% range thereafter.

Risk and Uncertainty Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 24 Aug 2023

We assign Nvidia with a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Very High. In our view, Nvidia’s valuation
will be tied to its ability to grow within the data center and AI sectors, for better or worse. Nvidia is an
industry leader in GPUs used in AI model training, while carving out a good portion of demand for chips
used in AI inference workloads (which involves running a model to make a prediction or output).

We see a host of tech leaders vying for Nvidia’s leading AI position. We think it is inevitable that leading
hyperscale vendors, such as Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft, Google, and Meta Platforms will seek to reduce
their reliance on Nvidia and diversify their semiconductor and software supplier base, including the
development of in-house solutions. Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium and Inferentia chips were
designed with AI workloads in mind, while Microsoft and Meta have announced semiconductor design
plans. Among existing semis vendors, AMD is quickly expanding its GPU lineup to serve these cloud
leaders. Intel also has AI accelerator products today and will likely remain focused on this opportunity.

Our uncertainty rating is based on the uncertainty around this market. Nvidia dominates AI today and
the sky is the limit for the company’s profitability if it can maintain this lead over the next decade.
However, any semblance of the successful development of alternatives could meaningfully limit Nvidia’s
upside.

Outside of the data center, Nvidia’s gaming business often faces boom-or-bust cycles along with PC
demand and, more recently, the sharp rise and fall of cryptocurrency mining. Nvidia also has invested
heavily in autonomous driving but again squares off against many other chipmakers (and automakers)
for a piece of this pie with little guarantee of success.

Capital Allocation Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 21 Nov 2024

We assign Nvidia an Exemplary Capital Allocation Rating, which reflects our assessment of a sound
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

balance sheet, exceptional investments associated with the firm’s strategy and execution, and attractive
and appropriate shareholder distribution policies.

Nvidia is in outstanding financial health. As of October 2024, the company held $38.5 billion in cash and
investments, as compared with $8.5 billion in short-term and long-term debt. We think the firm
generates sufficient cash flow and has ample resources to meet its debt obligations, capital expenditure
requirements, potential acquisitions, and shareholder returns.

We remain impressed with Nvidia’s prescient investments in GPUs, networking semis, and software, as
the company spent the past decade (if not longer) laying the groundwork to emerge as the clear leader
in AI training GPUs and associated software and tools. Like many chipmakers, Nvidia’s hefty R&D
budget enabled the company to remain on the cutting edge of GPU design. Partnerships with Samsung
and, increasingly, Taiwan Semi have enabled the company to release best-of-breed GPUs used in PC
gaming. Yet the more impressive investments, in our view, was the less heralded work to develop the
Cuda software platform, which includes the libraries, compilers, and development tools needed for
engineers to deploy Nvidia’s GPUs in the data center for AI workloads. We now believe that Nvidia
benefits from hefty switching costs in the data center. Even if AMD or another competitor could build a
semiconductor that is comparable with Nvidia’s data center GPUs (such as the Hopper H100), we
surmise that AI developers will stick with Nvidia because such AI models were built with Cuda.

On the M&A front, the deal that stands out is Nvidia’s acquisition Mellanox Technologies for $6.9 billion
in early 2020. Mellanox sells networking products that focus on efficient data transfer in data centers
via its InfiniBand and Ethernet technologies for interconnects. Nvidia is reliant on these technologies in-
house as well, using InfiniBand to build powerful DGX integrated systems used for the heftiest of AI
workloads.

In September 2020, Nvidia attempted to acquire ARM Holdings from the SoftBank Group in a
transaction valued at $40 billion. Nvidia’s hope was to steer ARM toward the development of data
center products while incorporating Nvidia’s AI expertise. The deal immediately faced pushback from
ARM’s licensee customers and regulatory challenges and was terminated in February 2022. We don’t
think the failed merger was a dealbreaker for Nvidia, as the company continues to license IP from ARM
and has recently launched its “Grace” line of ARM-based CPUs for the data center.

Management initiated a quarterly dividend in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 to return excess cash to
shareholders, but the payout is rather immaterial today. Most of Nvidia’s distributions to shareholders
come in the form of share repurchases.

Analyst Notes Archive

Nvidia: GTC Shows Off Nvidia’s March Toward an AI Empire Brian Colello, CPA,Strategist,19 Mar
2025

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

We attended Nvidia’s GTC events in San Jose this week and remain impressed with the company’s
march toward artificial intelligence supremacy in hardware, software, and networking, all with physical
AI via robotics and autonomous driving on the horizon. We maintain our $130 fair value estimate for
wide-moat Nvidia and view shares as fairly [Link] surprisingly, we heard little pessimism around
the AI data center (DC) environment, as management touted the massive AI factories to be built by
governments and tech and consumer internet leaders. CEO Jensen Huang stated that the “vast
majority” of AI inference runs on Nvidia today, and even with a rising threat of custom ASICs being
designed by hyperscalers, we still foresee tremendous demand for Nvidia’s solutions in the years
[Link]’re impressed with the details into Nvidia’s three-year AI GPU roadmap, with Blackwell Ultra
(GB300 series) arriving later this year, Vera Rubin in the second half of 2026, and Rubin Ultra in the
second half of 2027. Rubin Ultra is expected to have 576 GPU die within a single NVLink data center
rack and should emerge as a workhorse with significant AI inference processing advantages versus
prior generations. Nvidia’s medium-term revenue will rely upon an ongoing increase in AI capital
expenditures among tech leaders, but Nvidia’s impressive roadmap should give these customers the
incentive to keep spending on AI and replace its legacy [Link] and physical AI remains on the
horizon for Nvidia, and a key takeaway from the event is that Nvidia foresees it as a DC opportunity.
Nvidia “needs to build the AI to build the robots” and thinks robotics demand can support ongoing DC
spending. We were modestly surprised that Nvidia announced its Issac GROOT N1 robotics foundational
model as open source. However, we think Nvidia is trying to seed the robotics ecosystem and instead
profit on the back end via cloud data and workloads.

Nvidia Earnings: Maintaining Our $130 Fair Value Estimate as Near-Term Revenue Remains Bright
Brian Colello, CPA,Strategist,27 Feb 2025

We maintain our $130 fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia as the company reported another
quarter of strong results, while providing investors with guidance that exceeded FactSet consensus
estimates. Shares appear fairly valued to us as we think the market is pricing in both the tremendous
potential for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence solutions and the risk of slower spending on such products
beyond calendar [Link] in the January quarter was $39.3 billion, up 12% sequentially, up 78%
year over year, and ahead of guidance of $37.5 billion and FactSet consensus estimates of $38.1 billion.
Data center revenue is still the once-in-a-generation growth driver for Nvidia, up 93% year over year.
Revenue from new Blackwell products was $11 billion and exceeded management’s expectations.
Adjusted gross margin came in at 73.5%, down 150 basis points sequentially but in line with guidance
due to higher costs associated with new Blackwell [Link] expects April-quarter revenue to be
$43 billion, which would be up 9% sequentially, up 65% year over year, and ahead of FactSet consensus
estimates of $42.1 billion. Despite the selloff in late January associated with the emergence of
DeepSeek, we still see no meaningful signs that data center demand is waning in the near-term, and
we’ve been encouraged with the capital expenditure plans of cloud computing leaders for the upcoming
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

year. We still suspect that Nvidia will sell virtually everything it can make in calendar 2025. The only
blemish we saw within these results was the forecast for first-quarter adjusted gross margin to come in
at 71%, implying another sequential decline due to the Blackwell ramp, although we’d be impressed if
management can achieve its target to reach the mid-70% range later this year.

AI DeepSeek Coverage Summary: Maintaining Our Fair Values; Pullback Was Healthy Eric Compton,
CFA,Director,28 Jan 2025

We have consolidated our recent DeepSeek-related coverage in this note. Artificial intelligence affects
companies across much of our coverage, including semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, software,
utilities, and [Link] of the firms under our coverage with an “AI premium” were already trading
in 1- to 2-star territory. Our valuations were already positioned for a pullback of this nature, as we were
having a hard time justifying the increases in revenue implied by these valuations. We view the current
pullback as healthy, even as we remain positive on the long-term potential of AI. We have maintained
our fair value estimates across the affected [Link] thesis, after the release of DeepSeek, is that
we were going to see instances of sleeker, more-efficient AI models that would not rely on massive
clusters of AI GPUs and related hardware. This was the only way the ecosystem was going to
successfully address large numbers of use cases in the long term. We believe that lower costs—making
AI cheaper, therefore more economical—increase the number of use cases it is viable for, and as a
result, should increase demand. This is the same path the PC revolution followed, with computing
power becoming cheap enough that millions of individuals could use it at an affordable cost. The same
happened with the cloud and SaaS revolution thereafter, where the incremental cost of adding users
was close to zero. We believe a future where AI was both prohibitively expensive and also “taking over
the world” was not likely. As such, we view the advancements made by DeepSeek as promising and
healthy for the overall [Link] more in-depth coverage on specific industries, please refer to our
notes on Nvidia, the hyperscalers, semiconductor equipment companies, TSMC, Apple and networking,
utilities, European utilities, HVAC, and industrials.

Nvidia: Maintaining Our $130 Fair Value Estimate Despite AI Model Efficiencies Deployed by
DeepSeek Brian Colello, CPA,Strategist,27 Jan 2025

We are maintaining our $130 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia despite the selloff in AI
stocks on Jan. 27. We believe the selloff is related to the better-than-expected performance of
DeepSeek. DeepSeek is a Chinese AI large-language model believed to be on par with some of the best
models released by OpenAI and others, despite not having access to leading AI accelerators, such as
Nvidia’s best Hopper and Blackwell products. DeepSeek raises concerns that future LLMs will be
developed with fewer AI GPUs from Nvidia, lower capital expenditure from hyperscalers, and perhaps
less of a need for a massive energy buildout in the US. DeepSeek may also lead to an even stronger set
of US sanctions on China that could weigh on the sector even [Link] selloff brings Nvidia’s stock
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

price near our fair value estimate, which we think balances the massive risks and rewards associated
with AI. We reiterate our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Very High, as AI is changing at warp speed.
We view DeepSeek as a counterbalance to the bullish news we heard last week around Stargate and
Meta Platforms’ robust capex plans of $60 billion-$65 billion next [Link] fair value estimate for Nvidia
does not hinge on the company being able to sell into China, and if stronger US sanctions were to
emerge, we’re skeptical that they will be catastrophic to our fair value estimate. Further, we’ve long
expected the arrival of new AI techniques and slimmer LLMs, although not necessarily from China given
the US sanctions and AI [Link] the promise of DeepSeek, we doubt the leading cloud
vendors and AI builders like Stargate will pause their plans, although it’s a risk that certainly bears
watching. We believe that AI GPU demand still exceeds supply, so while slimmer models may enable
greater development for the same number of chips, we still think tech firms will continue to buy all the
GPUs they can as part of this AI "gold rush."

Nvidia: CES 2025 Keynote Address Puts Impressive Innovation on Display Brian Colello,
CPA,Strategist,9 Jan 2025

We attended Nvidia’s keynote address at CES 2025, presented by CEO Jensen Huang, and remain
impressed by the company’s execution and expansion into markets beyond gaming and data centers.
We maintain our $130 fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm. We remain bullish on Nvidia's
dominance in artificial intelligence but believe that the market is already pricing in this
[Link] and autonomous vehicles were important portions of the keynote, as Nvidia is
leveraging AI to make advancements in both areas. In our subsequent time spent at CES exhibits, we
think robotics and AVs were a bit more prominent than in years past, albeit not as pronounced as AI,
which was predictably [Link] data center AI, we still don’t see many signs of demand slowing
nor hyperscalers reducing their plans to invest in infrastructure in the year ahead. Still, we remain
impressed by Nvidia’s ability to elbow out into new technology areas. Software and networking are
boosting the firm thanks to research and investments made a decade ago, and it’s quite possible that
robotics and AVs will pay off for Nvidia into the 2030s, even if the investment thesis will still be
centered on AI for the rest of this [Link] Nvidia’s announced products, we’re intrigued by Project
Digits, a $3,000 device with an entry-level GB10 Grace Blackwell AI chip that essentially serves as a mini
supercomputer for developers and researchers. Given that Nvidia’s crown jewel is the GB200 NVL72 AI
rack, which might sell for as much as $3 million, Project Digits might be yet another example of the
company's relentless innovation to deliver new products without detracting from or losing focus on its
core business.

Nvidia Earnings: Raising Our Fair Value to $130 From $105 as AI Product Supply Is Expanding Brian
Colello, CPA,Strategist,21 Nov 2024

Nvidia once again reported outstanding results for its fiscal third quarter and provided investors with a
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

fiscal fourth-quarter forecast that exceeded our expectations. We raise our fair value estimate to $130
per share from $105, as we’re more optimistic about Nvidia’s growth over the next two calendar years,
as the supply of the firm’s products is improving faster than we expected. We’re also pleased with
management’s commentary around its Blackwell graphics processor's gross margins once the products
are fully ramped, which boosts our confidence that gross margins can remain in the mid-70% range in
the long run. Shares appear modestly overvalued to us, as growth will inevitably slow in the long run,
and we still think Nvidia’s largest customers have plenty of incentive to reduce their reliance on Nvidia
over time—whether it be with in-house chips or more efficient capital expenditure. We maintain our
Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for wide-moat Nvidia, as the artificial intelligence landscape
is both secretive and rapidly evolving, while Nvidia’s revenue carries high operating margins so that any
upside (or downside) in revenue has an outsize impact on cash [Link] in the October quarter was
$35.1 billion, up 17% sequentially, up 94% year over year, and well above guidance of $32.5 billion and
FactSet's consensus estimate of $33.2 billion. This represents the sixth straight quarter of Nvidia’s
revenue exceeding its quarterly guidance by $2 billion or more, although the negative stock market
reaction after hours suggests that some investors were seeking an even greater beat. Revenue in the
January 2025 quarter is forecast to be $37.5 billion, which would represent only 7% sequential growth.
We’re unconcerned about this relatively lackluster forecast and instead expect to see Nvidia sell all the
AI products it can build, whether they be current-generation Hopper or next-generation Blackwell. K

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Competitors Price vs. Fair Value

Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD

Fair Value: 140.00

5 Feb 2025 03:20, UTC
175
Last Close: 85.76
135 Overvalued
Undervalued
95

15
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
1.37 1.32 0.56 1.18 0.75 0.61 Price/Fair Value
99.98 56.91 -54.99 127.59 -18.06 -29.00 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 04 Apr 2025. Last Close as of 04 Apr 2025. Fair Value as of 5 Feb 2025 03:20, UTC.

Intel Corp INTC

Fair Value: 21.00

2 Aug 2024 03:48, UTC
73
Last Close: 19.85
58 Overvalued
Undervalued
43

13
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
0.71 0.79 0.59 1.26 0.95 0.95 Price/Fair Value
-14.55 6.16 -45.84 92.92 -59.35 -1.00 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 04 Apr 2025. Last Close as of 04 Apr 2025. Fair Value as of 2 Aug 2024 03:48, UTC.

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Competitors Price vs. Fair Value

Qualcomm Inc QCOM

Fair Value: 180.00

28 May 2024 20:13, UTC
183
Last Close: 127.46
153 Overvalued
Undervalued
123

63
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
1.23 1.12 0.79 1.03 0.85 0.71 Price/Fair Value
75.58 21.81 -38.28 34.42 8.53 -16.48 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating

Total Return % as of 04 Apr 2025. Last Close as of 04 Apr 2025. Fair Value as of 28 May 2024 20:13, UTC.

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Morningstar Valuation Model Summary

Financials as of 26 Feb 2025 Actual Forecast
Fiscal Year, ends 31 Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue (USD Mil) 26,974 60,922 130,497 201,600 244,666 274,519 282,367 311,013
Operating Income (USD Mil) 5,577 32,972 81,454 123,807 150,846 167,784 169,159 185,957
EBITDA (USD Mil) 5,768 34,480 83,318 125,632 152,753 169,739 171,261 188,238
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mil) 5,768 34,480 83,318 125,632 152,753 169,739 171,261 188,238
Net Income (USD Mil) 4,368 29,760 72,880 104,088 126,614 140,783 142,007 156,032
Adjusted Net Income (USD Mil) 8,365 32,313 74,266 108,308 130,318 145,117 147,196 162,043
Free Cash Flow To The Firm (USD Mil) -564 23,023 50,605 54,382 105,678 125,178 135,582 140,699
Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Bil) 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23
Earnings Per Share (Diluted) (USD) 0.17 1.19 2.94 4.25 5.25 5.94 6.09 6.81
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Diluted) (USD) 0.33 1.30 2.99 4.42 5.41 6.12 6.32 7.07
Dividends Per Share (USD) 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Margins & Returns as of 26 Feb 2025 Actual Forecast
3 Year Avg 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5 Year Avg
Operating Margin % 44.1 20.7 54.1 62.4 61.4 61.7 61.1 59.9 59.8 60.8
EBITDA Margin % — 21.4 56.6 63.8 62.3 62.4 61.8 60.7 60.5 —
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % — 21.4 56.6 63.8 62.3 62.4 61.8 60.7 60.5 61.6
Net Margin % 40.3 16.2 48.9 55.9 51.6 51.7 51.3 50.3 50.2 51.0
Adjusted Net Margin % 47.0 31.0 53.0 56.9 53.7 53.3 52.9 52.1 52.1 52.8
Free Cash Flow To The Firm Margin % 24.8 -2.1 37.8 38.8 27.0 43.2 45.6 48.0 45.2 41.8
Growth & Ratios as of 26 Feb 2025 Actual Forecast
3 Year CAGR 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5 Year CAGR
Revenue Growth % 69.3 0.2 125.9 114.2 54.5 21.4 12.2 2.9 10.2 19.0
Operating Income Growth % 100.9 -44.5 491.2 147.0 52.0 21.8 11.2 0.8 9.9 18.0
EBITDA Growth % 196.9 -48.6 497.8 141.6 50.8 21.6 11.1 0.9 9.9 18.9
Adjusted EBITDA Growth % 95.1 -48.6 497.8 141.6 50.8 21.6 11.1 0.9 9.9 17.7
Earnings Per Share Growth % 96.9 -54.7 584.9 146.2 44.6 23.7 13.1 2.6 11.8 18.3
Adjusted Earnings Per Share Growth % 96.9 -24.9 288.3 131.1 47.6 22.3 13.2 3.2 12.0 18.3
Valuation as of 26 Feb 2025 Actual Forecast
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Price/Earning 59.2 47.3 40.2 21.3 17.4 15.4 14.9 13.3
Price/Sales 17.9 24.9 22.5 11.4 9.4 8.4 8.1 7.4
Price/Book 22.2 35.8 37.5 17.7 11.1 7.7 5.8 4.5
Price/Cash Flow — — — — — — — —
EV/EBITDA 83.3 43.8 34.9 18.1 14.8 13.4 13.2 12.0
EV/EBIT 86.1 45.8 35.7 18.3 15.0 13.5 13.4 12.2
Dividend Yield % 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend Payout % 4.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Free Cash Flow Yield % — — — — — — — —
Operating Performance / Profitability as of 26 Feb 2025 Actual Forecast
Fiscal Year, ends 31 Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ROA % 10.6 45.3 65.3 61.2 51.0 41.6 33.3 29.3
ROE % 19.8 69.2 91.9 79.8 62.0 48.2 37.3 32.2
ROIC % 20.5 61.0 97.1 97.1 81.2 67.3 54.1 48.4

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Financial Leverage (Reporting Currency) Actual Forecast

Fiscal Year, ends 31 Jan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Debt/Capital % 2.4 0.7 — 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Assets/Equity 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Net Debt/EBITDA -0.2 -0.4 — -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.7 -2.0
Total Debt/EBITDA 2.1 0.3 — 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA/ Net Interest Expense 134.1 -40.8 -32.4 -78.5 -89.8 -92.6 -88.6 -92.6
Forecast Revisions as of 26 Feb 2025 2026 2027 2028
Prior data as of 20 Nov 2024 Current Prior Current Prior Current Prior
Fair Value Estimate Change (Trading Currency) 130.00 130.00 — — — —
Revenue (USD Mil) 201,600 130,232 244,666 195,506 274,519 235,623
Operating Income (USD Mil) 123,807 81,168 150,846 123,680 167,784 149,280
EBITDA (USD Mil) 125,632 84,799 152,753 128,567 169,739 155,070
Net Income (USD Mil) 108,308 73,210 130,318 107,855 145,117 128,412
Earnings Per Share (Diluted) (USD) 4.25 2.86 5.25 4.26 5.94 5.07
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Diluted) (USD) 4.42 2.96 5.41 4.35 6.12 5.18
Dividends Per Share (USD) 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

Years
Key Valuation Drivers as of 26 Feb 2025 Years Discounted Cash Flow Valuation as of 26 Feb 2025Years Years Years Years
Years
Years
Cost of Equity % 9.0 Years Years
Years Years Years Years Years Years USD Mil
Years
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt % 5.5 Present Value Stage I Years Years Years Years Years Years
837,850
Years
Weighted Average Cost of Capital % 9.0 Present Value Stage II Years Years Years Years Years Years
728,788
Years
Long-Run Tax Rate % 15.0 Present Value Stage III Years Years Years Years Years Years
1,539,121
Stage II EBI Growth Rate % 11.0 Total Firm Value 3,105,759
Stage II Investment Rate % 36.3
Perpetuity Year 20 Cash and Equivalents 43,210
Additional estimates and scenarios available for download at [Link] Debt 8,463
Other Adjustments 0
Equity Value 3,140,506

Projected Diluted Shares 24

Fair Value per Share (USD) 130.00

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

ESG Risk Rating Breakdown

Exposure Subject Subindustry (32.0) u Exposure represents a company’s vulnerability to ESG

Company Exposure1 30.2 risks driven by their business model
30.2
u Exposure is assessed at the Subindustry level and then
– Manageable Risk 28.2 Low
2 0 55+ specified at the company level
Unmanageable Risk 2.0 u Scoring ranges from 0-55+ with categories of low, me-
Low Medium High
dium, and high-risk exposure

Management
u Management measures a company ’s ability to manage
Manageable Risk 28.2 ESG risks through its commitments and actions
62.9%
– Managed Risk3 17.7 Strong
u Management assesses a company's efficiency on ESG

Management Gap4 10.5 100 0 programs, practices, and policies

Strong Average Weak u Management score ranges from 0-100% showing how

Overall Unmanaged Risk 12.5 much manageable risk a company is managing

ESG Risk Rating ESG Risk Rating Assessment5

12.46
Low

Negligible Low Medium High Severe ESG Risk Rating is of Apr 02, 2025. Highest Controversy Level is as of Mar 08,
2025. Sustainalytics Subindustry: Semiconductor Design and Manufacturing.
ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to which a company’s value is impacted by environmental, social, and governance Sustainalytics provides Morningstar with company ESG ratings and metrics
risks, by evaluating the company’s ability to manage the ESG risks it faces. on a monthly basis and as such, the ratings in Morningstar may not
necessarily reflect current Sustainalytics’ scores for the company. For the
1. A company's Exposure to material ESG issues 2. Unmanageable Risk refers to risks that are inherent to a particular business model that cannot be managed by most up to date rating and more information, please visit: [Link]/
programs or initiatives 3. Managed Risk = Manageable Risk multiplied by a Management score of 62.9% 4. Management Gap assesses risks that are not esg-ratings/.
managed, but are considered manageable 5. ESG Risk Rating Assessment = Overall Unmanaged Risk = Management Gap plus Unmanageable Risk

Peer Analysis 02 Apr 2025 Peers are selected from the company's Sustainalytics-defined Subindustry and are displayed based on the closest market cap values
Company Name Exposure Management ESG Risk Rating

NVIDIA Corp 30.2 | Low 0 55+ 62.9 | Strong 100 0 12.5 | Low 0 40+

Qualcomm Inc 38.1 | Medium 0 55+ 69.3 | Strong 100 0 13.6 | Low 0 40+

— —|— 0 55+ —|— 100 0 —|— 0 40+

Appendix
Historical Morningstar Rating
December
NVIDIA Corp November
NVDA 4 Apr 2025 October
21:30, UTC September August July May May April March February January

Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Sep 2025 Aug 2025 Jul 2025 Jun 2025 May 2025 Apr 2025 Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Jan 2025
- - - - - - - - QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2024 Nov 2024 Oct 2024 Sep 2024 Aug 2024 Jul 2024 Jun 2024 May 2024 Apr 2024 Mar 2024 Feb 2024 Jan 2024
QQQ QQQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ
Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQ QQ Q QQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQ QQ QQ Q Q Q Q QQ Q QQ QQ QQ

December
Advanced Micro November
Devices Inc October
AMD 4 Apr 2025 September
21:31, UTC August July May May April March February January

Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Sep 2025 Aug 2025 Jul 2025 Jun 2025 May 2025 Apr 2025 Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Jan 2025
- - - - - - - - QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2024 Nov 2024 Oct 2024 Sep 2024 Aug 2024 Jul 2024 Jun 2024 May 2024 Apr 2024 Mar 2024 Feb 2024 Jan 2024
QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ
Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
QQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQQ QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQ QQ QQQ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

December
Intel Corp INTC November
4 Apr 2025 21:31, October
UTC September August July May May April March February January

Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Sep 2025 Aug 2025 Jul 2025 Jun 2025 May 2025 Apr 2025 Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Jan 2025
- - - - - - - - QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2024 Nov 2024 Oct 2024 Sep 2024 Aug 2024 Jul 2024 Jun 2024 May 2024 Apr 2024 Mar 2024 Feb 2024 Jan 2024
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQQQQ QQQQQ QQQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ

December
Qualcomm Inc November
QCOM 4 Apr 2025 October
21:31, UTC September August July May May April March February January

Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Sep 2025 Aug 2025 Jul 2025 Jun 2025 May 2025 Apr 2025 Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Jan 2025
- - - - - - - - QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2024 Nov 2024 Oct 2024 Sep 2024 Aug 2024 Jul 2024 Jun 2024 May 2024 Apr 2024 Mar 2024 Feb 2024 Jan 2024
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Oct 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Apr 2023 Mar 2023 Feb 2023 Jan 2023
QQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2022 Nov 2022 Oct 2022 Sep 2022 Aug 2022 Jul 2022 Jun 2022 May 2022 Apr 2022 Mar 2022 Feb 2022 Jan 2022
QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQQ QQQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ
Dec 2021 Nov 2021 Oct 2021 Sep 2021 Aug 2021 Jul 2021 Jun 2021 May 2021 Apr 2021 Mar 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2021
QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQ
Dec 2020 Nov 2020 Oct 2020 Sep 2020 Aug 2020 Jul 2020 Jun 2020 May 2020 Apr 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020
QQ QQ QQ QQ QQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ QQQ

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Overview turns on invested capital (or ROIC) over and above our es- rive our annual free cash flow forecast.
At the heart of our valuation system is a detailed projec- timate of a firm’s cost of capital, or weighted average
Stage II: Fade
tion of a company’s future cash flows, resulting from our cost of capital (or WACC). Without a moat, profits are
The second stage of our model is the period it will take
analysts’ research. Analysts create custom industry and more susceptible to competition. We have identified five
the company ’s return on new invested capital—the re-
company assumptions to feed income statement, balance sources of economic moats: intangible assets, switching
turn on capital of the next dollar invested (“RONIC”)—to
sheet, and capital investment assumptions into our glob- costs, network effect, cost advantage, and efficient scale.
decline (or rise) to its cost of capital. During the Stage II
ally standardized, proprietary discounted cash flow, or
Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are period, we use a formula to approximate cash flows in
DCF, modeling templates. We use scenario analysis, inde-
more likely than not to achieve normalized excess returns lieu of explicitly modeling the income statement, balance
pth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other
for at least the next 10 years. Wide-moat companies are sheet, and cash flow statement as we do in Stage I. The
analytical tools to augment this process. Moreover, we
those in which we have very high confidence that excess length of the second stage depends on the strength of
think analyzing valuation through discounted cash flows
returns will remain for 10 years, with excess returns more the company’s economic moat. We forecast this period to
presents a better lens for viewing cyclical companies,
likely than not to remain for at least 20 years. The longer last anywhere from one year (for companies with no eco-
high-growth firms, businesses with finite lives (e.g.,
a firm generates economic profits, the higher its intrinsic nomic moat) to 10–15 years or more (for wide-moat com-
mines), or companies expected to generate negative
value. We believe low-quality, no-moat companies will panies). During this period, cash flows are forecast using
earnings over the next few years. That said, we don’t dis-
see their normalized returns gravitate toward the firm’s four assumptions: an average growth rate for EBI over the
miss multiples altogether but rather use them as support-
cost of capital more quickly than companies with moats. period, a normalized investment rate, average return on
ing cross-checks for our DCF-based fair value estimates.
new invested capital (RONIC), and the number of years
We also acknowledge that DCF models offer their own
When considering a company's moat, we also assess until perpetuity, when excess returns cease. The invest-
challenges (including a potential proliferation of estim-
whether there is a substantial threat of value destruction, ment rate and return on new invested capital decline un-
ated inputs and the possibility that the method may miss
stemming from risks related to ESG, industry disruption, til a perpetuity value is calculated. In the case of firms
shortterm market-price movements), but we believe these
financial health, or other idiosyncratic issues. In this con- that do not earn their cost of capital, we assume marginal
negatives are mitigated by deep analysis and our
text, a risk is considered potentially value destructive if its ROICs rise to the firm’s cost of capital (usually attribut-
longterm approach.
occurrence would eliminate a firm’s economic profit on a able to less reinvestment), and we may truncate the
cumulative or midcycle basis. If we deem the probability second stage.
Morningstar’s equity research group (”we,” “our”) be-
lieves that a company’s intrinsic worth results from the of occurrence sufficiently high, we would not characterize
the company as possessing an economic moat. Stage III: Perpetuity
future cash flows it can generate. The Morningstar Rating
Once a company’s marginal ROIC hits its cost of capital,
for stocks identifies stocks trading at a discount or premi-
2. Estimated Fair Value we calculate a continuing value, using a standard per-
um to their intrinsic worth—or fair value estimate, in
Combining our analysts’ financial forecasts with the petuity formula. At perpetuity, we assume that any
Morningstar terminology. Five-star stocks sell for the
firm’s economic moat helps us assess how long returns growth or decline or investment in the business neither
biggest risk adjusted discount to their fair values, where-
on invested capital are likely to exceed the firm’s cost of creates nor destroys value and that any new investment
as 1-star stocks trade at premiums to their intrinsic worth.
capital. Returns of firms with a wide economic moat rat- provides a return in line with estimated WACC.
Four key components drive the Morningstar rating: (1) our ing are assumed to fade to the perpetuity period over a
longer period of time than the returns of narrow-moat Because a dollar earned today is worth more than a dollar
assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate
firms, and both will fade slower than no-moat firms, in- earned tomorrow, we discount our projections of cash
of the stock’s fair value, (3) our uncertainty around that
creasing our estimate of their intrinsic value. flows in stages I, II, and III to arrive at a total present
fair value estimate and (4) the current market price. This
value of expected future cash flows. Because we are
process ultimately culminates in our singlepoint star rat-
Our model is divided into three distinct stages: modeling free cash flow to the firm—representing cash
ing.
available to provide a return to all capital providers—we
discount future cash flows using the WACC, which is a
1. Economic Moat Stage I: Explicit Forecast
weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and pre-
The concept of an economic moat plays a vital role not In this stage, which can last five to 10 years, analysts
ferred stock (and any other funding sources), using ex-
only in our qualitative assessment of a firm’s long-term make full financial statement forecasts, including items
pected future proportionate long-term, market-value
investment potential, but also in the actual calculation of such as revenue, profit margins, tax rates, changes in
weights.
our fair value estimates. An economic moat is a structural workingcapital accounts, and capital spending. Based on
feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a these projections, we calculate earnings before interest,
3. Uncertainty Around That Fair Value Estimate
long period of time. We define economic profits as re- after taxes (EBI) and the net new investment (NNI) to de-
Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating is designed to capture
the range of potential outcomes for a company ’s intrinsic
Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
value. This rating is used to assign the margin of safety
required before investing, which in turn explicitly drives
our stock star rating system. The Uncertainty Rating is
aimed at identifying the confidence we should have in as-
signing a fair value estimate for a given stock.

Our Uncertainty Rating is meant to take into account any-

thing that can increase the potential dispersion of future
outcomes for the intrinsic value of a company, and any-
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

thing that can affect our ability to accurately predict Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
these outcomes. The rating begins with a suggested rat-
ing produced by a quantitative process based on the trail-
ing 12-month standard deviation of daily stock returns.
An analyst overlay is then applied, with analysts using
the suggested rating, historical rating data, and their own
knowledge of the company to inform them as they make
the final Uncertainty Rating decision. Ultimately, the rat-
ing decision rests with the analyst. Analysts take into ac-
count many characteristics when making their final de-
cision, including cyclical factors, operational and financial
factors such as leverage, company-specific events, ESG
risks, and anything else that might increase the potential
dispersion of future outcomes and our ability to estimate
those outcomes.

Our recommended margin of safety—the discount to fair

value demanded before we’d recommend buying or
selling the stock—widens as our uncertainty of the es-
timated value of the equity increases. The more uncertain
we are about the potential dispersion of outcomes, the
greater the discount we require relative to our estimate of
the value of the firm before we would recommend the
purchase of the shares. In addition, the Uncertainty Rat-
ing provides guidance in portfolio construction based on
risk tolerance. Once we determine the fair value estimate of a stock, we justed return is highly likely over a multiyear time frame.
compare it with the stock’s current market price on a Scenario analysis developed by our analysts indicates
Our Uncertainty Ratings are: Low, Medium, High, Very daily basis, and the star rating is automatically re-calcu- that the current market price represents an excessively
High, and Extreme. lated at the market close on every day the market on pessimistic outlook, limiting downside risk and maximiz-
which the stock is listed is open. Our analysts keep close ing upside potential.
Margin of Safety
tabs on the companies they follow, and, based on thor-
Qualitative Analysis
QRating ough and ongoing analysis, raise or lower their fair value QQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk-ad-
Uncertainty Ratings QQQQQRating
estimates as warranted. justed return is likely.
Low 20% Discount 25% Premium
Medium 30% Discount 35% Premium QQQ Indicates our belief that investors are likely to re-
Please note, there is no predefined distribution of stars.
High 40% Discount 55% Premium ceive a fair risk-adjusted return (approximately cost of
That is, the percentage of stocks that earn 5 stars can
Very High 50% Discount 75% Premium equity).
fluctuate daily, so the star ratings, in the aggregate, can
Extreme 75% Discount 300% Premium serve as a gauge of the broader market’s valuation. When
there are many 5-star stocks, the stock market as a whole QQ We believe investors are likely to receive a less than
Our uncertainty rating is based on the interquartile range, fair risk-adjusted return.
is more undervalued, in our opinion, than when very few
or the middle 50% of potential outcomes, covering the
companies garner our highest rating.
25th percentile–75th percentile. This means that when a Q Indicates a high probability of undesirable risk-adjus-
stock hits 5 stars, we expect there is a 75% chance that ted returns from the current market price over a multiyear
We expect that if our base-case assumptions are true the
the intrinsic value of that stock lies above the current time frame, based on our analysis. Scenario analysis by
market price will converge on our fair value estimate over
market price. Similarly, when a stock hits 1 star, we ex- our analysts indicates that the market is pricing in an ex-
time generally within three years (although it is im-
pect there is a 75% chance that the intrinsic value of that cessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and
possible to predict the exact time frame in which market
stock lies below the current market price. leaving the investor exposed to Capital loss.
prices may adjust).

4. Market Price Our star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and Other Definitions
The market prices used in this analysis and noted in the individuals must consider their own specific investment Last Price: Price of the stock as of the close of the mar-
report come from exchange on which the stock is listed goals, risk tolerance, tax situation, time horizon, income ket of the last trading day before date of the report.
which we believe is a reliable source. needs, and complete investment portfolio, among other
factors. Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or
For more details about our methodology, please go to Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the
[Link] The Morningstar Star Ratings for stocks are defined be- quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-
low: lar emphasis on the firm ’s balance sheet, investments,
Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks QQQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk ad- and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet starting at zero (no risk) with lower scores representing vice to any specific investor. Therefore, investments dis-
management, and dividend and share buyback policies. less unmanaged risk and, for 95% of cases, the unman- cussed herein may not be suitable for all investors; in-
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they aged ESG Risk score is below 50. vestors must exercise their own independent judgment as
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though to the suitability of such investments and recommenda-
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis- Based on their quantitative scores, companies are tions in the light of their own investment objectives, ex-
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem- grouped into one of five Risk Categories (negligible, low, perience, taxation status and financial position. Morning-
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc- medium, high, severe). These risk categories are absolute, star encourages Report recipients to read all relevant is-
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de- meaning that a ‘high risk’ assessment reflects a compar- sue documents (e.g., prospectus) pertaining to the secur-
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The able degree of unmanaged ESG risk across all subindus- ity concerned, including without limitation, information
Standard rating is most common as most managers will tries covered. relevant to its investment objectives, risks, and costs be-
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc- fore making an investment decision and when deemed
ation. The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a visual representa- necessary, to seek the advice of a financial, legal, tax,
tion of Sustainalytics ESG Risk Categories on a 1 to 5 and/or accounting professional. The information, data,
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri- scale. Companies with Negligible Risk = 5 Globes, Low analyses and opinions presented herein are not warran-
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro- Risk = 4, Medium Risk = 3 Globes, High Risk = 2 Globes, ted to be accurate, correct, complete or timely. Unless
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and Severe Risk = 1 Globe. For more information, please visit otherwise provided in a separate agreement, neither
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con- [Link]/esg-ratings/ Morningstar, Inc. or the Equity Research Group repres-
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac- ents that the report contents meet all of the presentation
tions, and accounting practices in the rating. Ratings should not be used as the sole basis in evaluating and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction
a company or security. Ratings involve unknown risks and the recipient is located.
Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or uncertainties which may cause our expectations not to
Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the occur or to differ significantly from what was expected Except as otherwise required by law or provided for in a
quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu- and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to separate agreement, the analyst, Morningstar, Inc. and
lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments, buy or sell a security. the Equity Research Group and their officers, directors
and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan- and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any
ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet Risk Warning trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from,
management, and dividend and share buyback policies. Please note that investments in securities are subject to or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they market and other risks and there is no assurance or guar- within the report.
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though antee that the intended investment objectives will be
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis- achieved. Past performance of a security may or may not The Report and its contents are not directed to, or inten-
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem- be sustained in future and is no indication of future per- ded for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc- formance. A security investment return and an investor ’s is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de- principal value will fluctuate so that, when redeemed, an country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, pub-
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The investor ’s shares may be worth more or less than their lication, availability or use would be contrary to law or
Standard rating is most common as most managers will original cost. A security’s current investment performance regulation or which would subject Morningstar, Inc. or its
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc- may be lower or higher than the investment performance affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements in
ation. noted within the report. Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating such jurisdiction.
serves as a useful data point with respect to sensitivity
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri- analysis of the assumptions used in our determining a fair Where this report is made available in a language other
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro- value price. than English and in the case of inconsistencies between
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and the English and translated versions of the report, the Eng-
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con- lish version will control and supersede any ambiguities
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac- General Disclosure associated with any part or section of a report that has
tions, and accounting practices in the rating. been issued in a foreign language. Neither the analyst,
Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, re-
cipients accessing this report may only use it in the coun- Morningstar, Inc., or the Equity Research Group guaran-
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating Assessment:The ESG tees the accuracy of the translations.
try in which the Morningstar distributor is based. Unless
Risk Rating Assessment is provided by Sustainalytics; a
stated otherwise, the original distributor of the report is
Morningstar company. This report may be distributed in certain localities, coun-
Morningstar Research Services LLC, a U.S.A. domiciled
financial institution. tries and/or jurisdictions (“Territories ”) by independent
Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to third parties or independent intermediaries and/or distrib-
which company’s economic value at risk is driven by en- utors (“Distributors”). Such Distributors are not acting as
This Report is for informational purposes, should not be
vironment, social and governance (ESG) factors. agents or representatives of the analyst, Morningstar,
the sole piece of information used in making an invest-
ment decision, and has no regard to the specific invest- Inc. or the Equity Research Group. In Territories where a
Sustainalytics analyzes over 1,300 data points to assess a Distributor distributes our report, the Distributor is solely
ment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of
company’s exposure to and management of ESG risks. In responsible for complying with all applicable regulations,
any specific recipient. This publication is intended to
other words, ESG Risk Ratings measures a company’s un- laws, rules, circulars, codes and guidelines established by
provide information to assist investors in making their
managed ESG Risks represented as a quantitative score. local and/or regional regulatory bodies, including laws in
own investment decisions, not to provide investment ad-
Unmanaged Risk is measured on an open-ended scale
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
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Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

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NVIDIA Equity Analyst Report 2025

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Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 5 Apr 2025 00:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD

| Exchange: NASDAQ - ALL MARKETS Page 1 of 25

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Price vs. Fair Value

Fair Value: 130.00

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

More recently, parallel processing has emerged as a near-requirement to accelerate AI workloads.

Bulls Say Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 27 Feb 2025

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Fair Value Fair Value Fair Value Fair Value

Bears Say Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 27 Feb 2025

Economic Moat Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 21 Nov 2024

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

quite some time.

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Risk and Uncertainty Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 24 Aug 2023

Capital Allocation Brian Colello, CPA, Strategist, 21 Nov 2024

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Analyst Notes Archive

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Competitors Price vs. Fair Value

Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD

Fair Value: 140.00

Intel Corp INTC

Fair Value: 21.00

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Competitors Price vs. Fair Value

Qualcomm Inc QCOM

Fair Value: 180.00

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Morningstar Valuation Model Summary

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

Financial Leverage (Reporting Currency) Actual Forecast

Projected Diluted Shares 24

NVIDIA Corp NVDA QQQQ 4 Apr 2025 21:30, UTC

ESG Risk Rating Breakdown

Exposure Subject Subindustry (32.0) u Exposure represents a company’s vulnerability to ESG

Management Gap4 10.5 100 0 programs, practices, and policies

Overall Unmanaged Risk 12.5 much manageable risk a company is managing

ESG Risk Rating ESG Risk Rating Assessment5

— —|— 0 55+ —|— 100 0 —|— 0 40+

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Our Uncertainty Rating is meant to take into account any-

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Our recommended margin of safety—the discount to fair

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

Research Methodology for Valuing Companies

vestment Adviser India Private Limited offers Investment

For recipients in Japan: The Report is distributed by Ib-

For recipients in Singapore: For Institutional Investor

For recipients in Korea: The report is distributed by

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