2.

Probability
2.1. Sample Space and Relationships among Events
2.2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
2.3. Rules of Probability
Define sample spaces and events in probabilistic terms.
Use rules of probability (addition, multiplication, complement) to solve problems.

Sample Space
Probability - Refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of an outcome
Sample space - set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment; represented
by the symbol S.
Probability experiment - leads to well-defined results, outcomes.
Outcome - result of a single trial of a probability experiment
Experiment Sample space
Toss one coin Head, Tail
Throw a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head
Element or Member - Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member
of the sample space, or simply a sample point.
Event - subset of a sample space; any collection of results or outcomes of an experiment; a
set of basic outcomes.

Ex. Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children. Use
B for boy and G for girl.
Soln: List down possible outcomes: BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG

Example 1: Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Sol’n: Since each die can land in six different ways, and two dice are rolled, the sample
space can be presented by a rectangular array. The sample space is the list of pairs of
numbers in the chart below:
Die 1 \ Die 2 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
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5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

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6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Tree diagram - device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also
from outcome points; used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example 2: Tree Diagram for Gender of 3 Children

Problem: Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl. Use a tree diagram.
Solution
There are two genders, male and female, and each child could be either gender.
Hence three are eight possibilities, as shown here.
BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG

Discrete Sample Space

A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite set of outcomes; a
set of distinct and countable outcomes in a probability experiment
Ex. S={2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)

Continuous Sample Space

One which contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers;contains
outcomes that can take any value within a given range, not just distinct integers or
categories.
Ex: S={height of a person} which could be 155.35 cm

Mutually Exclusive Event

events that do not occur at the same time; two mutually exclusive events do not have
elements in common.

Independent and Dependent Events

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The occurrence of any event that is completely unaffected by the occurrence of any
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other event is known as an independent event.

  Events that are affected by other events are known as dependent events.
Mutually Exclusive Events
 Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event occurs, the other cannot, and
vice versa.

Experiment: Toss a die. Let the following events be defined:

A: observe an odd number
B: observe a number greater than 2
C: observe a 6
D: observe a 3
Classification:
 A and B → ❌ Not Mutually Exclusive
 B and C? → Needs evaluation
 B and D? → Needs evaluation
 C and D → ✅ Mutually Exclusive

Union of Events. The union of events A and B, denoted by A∪B, consists of all outcomes
that are in A, or in B, or in both A and B.

Intersection of Events. The intersection of events A and B, denoted by A∩B, consists of all
outcomes that are in both A and B.

Complement of Events. The complement of an event A (denoted by A′) is the set containing
all the elements in the universal set that are not members of A.

Probability

Ex. Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Soln:
Number of Outcomes∈ Event n(E)
Probability= ; P ( E )=
Total No . of outcomes ∈the sample space n(S)
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2.2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability

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- Rules for counting the number of possible outcomes

 1: If any one of k different mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events can
occur on each of n trials, the number of possible outcomes is equal to k n
Example: If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216 possible outcomes

2: If there are k1 events on the first trial, k2 events on the second trial, … and kn
events on the nth trial, the number of possible outcomes is
Example: You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and see a movie. There
are 3 parks, 4 restaurants, and 6 movie choices. How many different possible
combinations are there? ( k 1 )( k 2 ) … ( k n )
Soln: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities

3: The number of ways that n items can be arranged in order is

n !=( n ) ( n−1 ) … (1)
Example: You have five books to put on a bookshelf. How many different ways
can these books be placed on the shelf?
Soln: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different possibilities

4: Permutations: The number of ways of arranging X objects selected from n

objects in order is
Example: You have five books and are going to put three on a bookshelf. How
many different ways can the books be ordered on the bookshelf?

5: Combinations: The number of ways of selecting X objects from n objects,

irrespective of order, is

Example: You have five books and are going to select three are to read. How
many different combinations are there, ignoring the order in which they are selected?

Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where appropriate—

percentages.
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Ex. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities.

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a. Of getting a jack c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond

b. Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a club) d. Of getting a 3 or a 6

4 1 1
Sol’n: a. P ( jack )= = b. P ( 6 of clubs ) =
52 3 52
16 4
c. P ( 3∨diamond )= = ; note: four 3’s & 13 diamonds, but one 3 is a diamond
52 13
8 2
d. P ( 3∨6 )= =
52 13

2.3 Rules of Probability

Rule 1 Probabilities cannot be negative or greater than 1; 0 ≤ P(E)≤ 1
Rule 2 If an event E cannot occur its probability is 0.
Rule 3 If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
Rule 4 The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1

Probability of Two (or more) Independent Events

Events A and B are independent events if the probability of Event B occurring is the
same whether or not Event A occurs.
A fair coin is tossed two times. The probability that a head comes up on the second
toss is 1/2 regardless of whether or not a head came up on the first toss. The two events are
(1) first toss is a head and (2) second toss is a head. So these events are independent.
if events A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring is:
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
Flip a coin twice, P(heads) in both times.
E(A) - head on first flip; E(B) - head on 2nd flip; P(A) = ½ & P(B) = ½
P(both events occur) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4
Draw a card from a deck of cards, put it back, and then draw another card.
P(first card is a heart & second card is black) = 13/52 = ¼
P(2nd card is black) = 26/52 = ½
P (both events occurring) = 1/4 x 1/2 = 1/8

Probability of A or B
If Events A and B are independent, the probability that either Event A or Event B
occurs is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Flip a coin two times, what is the P(head on the first flip or a head on the second flip
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(or both)). Letting Event A be a head on the first flip and Event B be a head on the second
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flip, then P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/2, and P(A and B) = 1/4.
 P(A or B) = ½ + ½ - ¼ = ¾
Throw a die and then flip a coin, find the probability of getting either a 6 on the die or
a head on the coin flip (or both).
P(6 or head) = P(6) + P(head) - P(6 and head) = (1/6) + (1/2) - (1/6)(1/2) = 7/12

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is defined as
the probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
P( A∧B)
P ( B| A )=
P( A)
Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who
have completed the requirements for a college degree.
Categorization of the Adults in a Small Town
Employed Unemployed Total
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

Events: M: male is chosen; E: chosen is employed

460 23
Sol’n: P(M / E)= = ;
600 30
There are basic interpretations of probability:
1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

Classical probability
Uses sample space to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen; it
assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
 Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring.

Formula for classical probability P(E) = n(E) / n(S)

Example: Since there are 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades) and 13 cards for
each suit (ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the sample space. A card is drawn
from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities:
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a) Of getting a jack c) Of getting a 3 or a diamond

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b) Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a club) d) Of getting a 3 or 6

Sol’n
a) P(jack) = 4 / 52 = 1 / 13
b) P(6 of clubs) = 1 / 52
c) note: four 3s & 13 diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is counted twice in this listing.
16 possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond, so P(3 or diamond) = 16 / 52 = 4 / 13
d) four 3s and 6s, P(3 or 6) = 8 / 52 = 2 / 13

Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

Solution: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} P(9) = 0 / 6 = 0

Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than
7?
Solution: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6} P(number less than 7) = 6 / 6 = 1

Complementary events
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are
not included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by Ē.
Example: Find the complement of each event.
a. Rolling a die and getting a 4
b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel
c. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J
d. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday
Sol’n a. Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6 b. Getting a consonant (assume y is a consonant)
c. Getting February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, and
December
d. Getting Saturday or Sunday

Rule for complementary event

Ex. If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is 1/5, find
the probability that a person does not live in an industrialized country.
Sol’n P(not living in an industrialized country)=1−P ( living ∈an industrialized country )
1 4
¿ 1− =
5 5
Empirical probability
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  The difference between classical and empirical probability is that a classical
probability assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely, while empirical
probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcome.
f
P ( E )=
n

Example. In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B
blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following
probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Solution Type Frequency

A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
a. P(O) = f/n = 21/50
b. P(A or B) = 22/50 + 5/50 = 27/50 (Add the frequencies of two classes)
c. P(neither A nor O) = 5/50 + 2/50 = 7/50
(Neither A nor O means the person has either type B or type AB blood.)
d. P(not AB) = 1 – P(AB) = 1 – 2/50 = 48/50 = 24/25
(Find the probability of not AB by subtracting the probability of type AB from 1)

Example: Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed in the
hospital for the number of days shown in the distribution.
Number of Days Stayed Frequency
3 15
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
127
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Find these probabilities.

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a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days b. A patient stayed less than 6 days
c. A patient stayed at most 4 days d. A patient stayed at least 5 days
Solution
a. P(5) = 56/127
b. P(fewer than 6 days) = 15/127 + 32/127 + 56/127 = 103/127
(Less than 6 days means 3, 4, or 5 days)
c. P(at most 4 days) = 15/127 + 32/127 = 47/127
(At most 4 days means 3 or 4 days)
d. P(at least 5 days) = = 56/127 + 19/127 + 5/127 = 80/127
(At least 5 days means 5, 6, or 7 days)

Subjective Probability
 Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.

The Addition Rules for Probability

 Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e.,
they have no outcomes in common).

Example: Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are not, when a
single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4

Solution
a. The events are mutually exclusive, since the first event can be 1, 3, or 5 and the second
event can be 2, 4, or 6.
b. The events are not mutually exclusive, since the first event is a 3 and the second can be
1, 3, or 5. Hence, 3 is contained in both events.
c. The events are not mutually exclusive, since the first event can be 1, 3, or 5 and the
second can be 1, 2, or 3. Hence, 1 and 3 are contained in both events.
d. The events are mutually exclusive, since the first event can be 5 or 6 and the second
event can be 1, 2, or 3.
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Addition Rule 1 When two events A and B are mutually exclusive: P(A or B)=P(A)
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+P(B)
Example: The corporate research and development center for three local companies have
the following number of employees:
U.S. Steel – 110 Alcoa – 750 Bayer Material Science – 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the probability that the employee is
employed by U.S. Steel or Alcoa.
Soln:
110 750 860 86
P(U.S. Steel or Alcoa)=P(U.S. Steel)+P(Alcoa) ¿ + = =
1,110 1,110 1,110 111
Addition rule 2 If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Example:
In hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the subject is nurse or a male.
Solution
The sample space is shown here.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
The probability is P (nurses or males) = P (nurse) + P (male) – P (male nurse)
= 8/13 + 3/13 – 1/13 = 10/13

The multiplication rules and conditional probability

 The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that
occur in sequence.
 Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect
the probability of B occurring.

Multiplication rule 1 When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

P (A and B) = P(A) • P(B)

Example: An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and
its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the
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probability of each of these.

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a. Selecting 2 blue balls c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
Solution
a. P(blue and blue) = P(blue) • P(blue) = 2/10 • 2/10 = 4/100 = 1/25
b. P(blue and white) = P(blue) • P(white) = 2/10 • 5/10 = 10/100 = 1/10
c. P(red and blue) = P(red) • P(blue) = 3/10 • 2/10 = 6/100 = 3/50

Multiplication rule 2 When two events dependent, the probability of both occurring is,
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B/A)

Example: At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries reported in 2003,

16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at random two burglaries to
further investigate, find the probability that both will have occurred in 2004.

Solution: In this case, the events are dependent since the researcher wishes to investigate
two distinct cases. Hence the first case is selected and not replaced.
P(C₁ and C₂) = P(C₁) • P(C₁/C₂) = 16/53 • 15/52 = 60/689

Conditional probability
 The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A was defined as
the probability that event B occurs after event A has already occurred.
Formula for conditional probability: P(B/A) = P(A and B) / P(A)

Example : A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces
should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

Find the Probabilities.

a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.

Solution Let
M = respondent was a male F = respondent was a female
Y = respondent answered yes N = respondent answered no
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a. The problem is to find P(Y/F). The rule states:

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P(Y/F) = P(F and Y) / P(F)

The probability P(F and Y) is the number of females who responded yes, divided by the total
number of respondents: P(F and Y) = 8/100
The probability P(F) is the probability of selecting a female: P(F) = 50/100

Then: P(Y/F) = P(F and Y) / P(F) = 8/100 ÷ 50/100 = 4/25

b. P(M/N) = P(N and M) / P(N) = 18/100 ÷ 60/100 = 3/10

Example: A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

Solution. It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is “all
heads,” and then subtract the probability from 1 to get the probability of at least 1 tail.
P(E) = 1 – P(Ē)
P(at least 1 tail) = 1 – P(all heads)
P(all heads) = (1/2)⁵ = 1/32
Hence, P(at least 1 tail) = 1 – 1/32 = 31/32

Counting rules
 To determine this number, three rules can be used; the fundamental counting rule,
the permutation rule, and the combination rule.
Fundamental counting rule
k₁ • k₂ • k₃ • • • • kₙ
Example: The manager of a department store chain wishes to make four-digit identification
cards for her employees. How many different cards can be made if she uses the digits 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6 and repetitions are permitted?
Since there are 4 spaces to fill on each card, there are 6 choices for each space. The total
number of cards that can be made is: 6 • 6 • 6 • 6 = 1296

Permutations. an arrangement of n objects in a specific order

Permutation rule nPr = n! / (n − r)!

Factorial Formulas n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) ••• 1

0! = 1*

Example: A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to present next year. One will
be presented in the fall, and one will be presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick from,
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how many different possibilities are there?

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Soln. Order is important since one play can be presented in the fall and the other in the
spring
⁹P₂ = 9! / (9−2)! = 9! / 7! = 9 × 8 × 7! / 7! = 72 There are 72 different possibilities.

Combination rule nCr = n! / (n−r)! r!

Example: In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3 women and 3 men is to
be chosen. How many different possibilities are there?

Solution ⁷C₃ • ⁵C₃ = 7! / (7−3)! 3! × 5! / (5−2)! 2! = 350

Probability and counting rule

Ex: A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are defective. If 4 are sold at random, find the
following probabilities.
a. Exactly 2 are defective c. All are defective
b. None is defective d. At least 1 is defective

Solution. There are ₍₂₄C₄₎ ways to sell 4 transistors, so the denominator in each case will be
10,626.
a. Two defective transistors can be selected as ₍₄C₂₎ and two non-defective ones as
₍₂₀C₂₎. Hence, P(exactly 2 defectives) = (₄C₂ × ₂₀C₂) / ₍₂₄C₄₎ = 1140 / 10,626 = 190 / 1771
b. The number of ways to choose no defectives is ₍₂₀C₄₎. Hence,
P(no defectives) = ₍₂₀C₄₎ / ₍₂₄C₄₎ = 4845 / 10,626 = 1615 / 3542
c. The number of ways to choose 4 defectives from 4 is ₍₄C₄₎ = 1. Hence,
P(all defective) = 1 / ₍₂₄C₄₎ = 1 / 10,626
d. To find the probability of at least 1 defective transistor, subtract the probability of
none being defective from 1:
P(at least 1 defective) = 1 – P(no defectives)
= 1 − ₍₂₀C₄₎ / ₍₂₄C₄₎
= 1 − 1615 / 3542 = 1927 / 3542
Permutation
The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called a
permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as nPr, and the formula is
n!
nPr=
( n−r ) !
Ex. The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads to use on the program. If she
selects 1 of them for the opening of the show, 1 for the middle of the show, and 1 for the
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ending of the show, how many possible ways can this be accomplished? (Bluman, 20___)
7! 7!
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Sol’n: 7P3 ¿ = =210

( 7−3 ) ! 4 !
Example: The final night of the Folklore Festival will feature 3 different bands. There are 7
bands to choose from. How many different programs are possible?
Solution: ❑7 P3 =7.6 .5=210

Combinations: A selection of distinct objects without regard to order

The IECS has 7 faculty members. Three must attend the graduation ceremonies.
How many different groups of 3 can be chosen?
If order mattered, the answer would be 7·6·5 = 210
Let’s look at one set of three professors: A, B, C: ABC ACB BCA BAC CAB CBA
6 listings for the same set of 3 profs
3! = 6 possible arrangements of three objects.
Combinations are used when the order or arrangement is not important, as in the
selecting process.
Example: A committee of 5 students is to be selected from 25 students. The 5
selected students represent a combination, since it does not matter who is selected first,
second, etc.
The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by nCr
n!
and is given by the formula. ❑n C r =
( n−r ) ! r !
How many combinations of 4 objects are there, taken 2 at a time?
4! 4! 4 . 3 .2 . 1
Solution: ❑4 C2 = = = =6
( 4−2 ) ! 2 ! 2 ! 2! 2 .1 . 2. 1
Example: In a group there are 7 women and 5 men. A sub-group of 3 women and 2
men is to be
chosen. How many different possibilities are there?
7! 5!
❑7 C 3 .5 C 2= . =350
( 7−3 ) ! 3 ! ( 5−2 ) ! 2 !
Probability Distributions
Continuous variable: can assume all values in the interval between any two given values.
Random variable: outcomes of an experiment expressed numerically. Eg. Toss a die twice
and count the number of time the number 4 appears (0, 1 or 2 times).
Discrete Random variable: a random variable that can only have certain distinct values. It is
usually obtained by counting. Eg. Toss a coin five times and count the number of tails. (0, 1,
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2, 3, 4 or 5)
A probability distribution for a discrete random variable lists all the possible outcomes for the
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random variable together with the related probability

A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume
and the corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined
theoretically or by observation

Example: Toss a coin three times. Observe the number of heads. The possible results are:
zero heads, one head, two heads, and three heads. What is the probability distribution for
the number of heads?

The main features of a discrete probability distribution are:

• The sum of the probabilities of the various outcomes is 1.00.
• The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1.00.
• The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
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3. Discreet Probability Distributions
3.1. Random Variables and their Probability Distributions
3.2. Cumulative Distribution Functions
3.3. Expected Values of Random Variables
3.4. The Binomial Distribution
3.5. The Poisson Distribution

Define and interpret discrete random variables and their distributions.

Compute expected values and variances of discrete random variables.
Apply binomial and Poisson models to appropriate real-world situations.

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