WATER BALANCE & WATER
MANAGEMENT STUDY ON BILATE
SUB-BASIN
OPTIMAL WATER ALLOCATIONS AND ANALYSIS OF
WATER DEMANDS AND CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGE
AREAS IN BILATE SUB-BASIN
S/N/N/P/R/S IRRIGATION CONSTRUCTION AND SCHEMES
ADMINISTRATION AGENCY, HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA
July, 2017
Table of Contents
List of Figure...................................................................................................ii
List of Table.....................................................................................................ii
1. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................1
1.1 Statement of the Problem......................................................................1
1.2 Objectives of the Study..........................................................................2
2. DETERMINATION OF WATER DEMAND IN THE CATCHMENTS..........3
2.1 Irrigation Water Demands...................................................................3
2.2 Domestic Water Demand........................................................................4
2.3 Livestock and Wildlife Water Demand...................................................6
2.4 Environmental Flow Requirement.........................................................7
3. DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL WATER ALLOCATION FOR
COMPETING WATER REQUIREMENTS........................................................7
4. IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS OF CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGE AND
THEIR LOCATION WITHIN THE WATERSHED CAUSES OF WATER
SHORTAGE.....................................................................................................9
5. STUDY AND PRESENTATION OF IRRIGATION WATER USE
INSTITUTIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE FRAMEWORK UNDER IWRM...10
5.1 Institutional Arrangements..................................................................10
5.2 Governance........................................................................................11
REFERANCES...............................................................................................12
List of Figure
Figure 2.1:domestic water demand analysis method.....................................7
Figure 2. 2:optimal water allocation mechanisms........................................11
List of Table
Table 2. 1: Data collection methods................................................................5
Table 2.2:TLU conversion factor.....................................................................8
1. INTRODUCTION
Effective water resources development and utilizations are widely
recognized as crucial for sustainable economic growth and poverty
reduction in developing countries (McCartney et al., 2010). These
sustainable developments will be ensured by assessment of the potential of
available resources and designing best utilization mechanisms (modeling)
through area-based development plan on a watershed level. From the most
common resources, Water and Land are the major assets for majority of the
rural poor people in Ethiopia who depend on agriculture for their
livelihoods. Therefore, Irrigation development is vital to the sustainable and
reliable agricultural developments in Ethiopia by meeting the demands of
food security, employment and poverty reduction (Haile and Kassa, 2015;
Awulachew et al., 2008).Also, the rapidly growing population has led to an
increased claim on domestic water supply and pressure on natural
resources.
For each demands requirement water abstraction is often being done
without the basic understanding of the complex hydrological and hydro
geological system and the fragile nature of the catchment. Therefore, to
determine water balance in the sub-basin establishing a water allocation
plan will be needed by detail assessment of water availability, existing
water use and expected future demand, and water requirements for
environmental purposes.
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was selected to allocate
water in equitable manner and to investigate future development scenarios
effect on water balance by linking the demand and the supply of water
resource of the study areas.
1.1 Statement of the Problem
Irrigation development increase and socioeconomic development of the bulk
of Ethiopian community causes competition of fixed resources and result in
water scarcity. Often downstream water users have no water for irrigation,
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which severely affects their crop yields and frequently causes conflicts
among irrigation schemes and head and tail water users in particular
irrigation scheme. The optimum use of diverted irrigation water in existing
irrigation schemes is a fundamental aspect to reach a sustainable
agriculture.
The limited available irrigation water for upstream-downstream users calls
for optimal utilization of available water resources. For this a simulation-
optimization approaches to be employed to develop an irrigation water
allocation tool to optimally utilize the available water resources.
1.2 Objectives of the Study
The general objective of this study is to determine the optimal allocation of
water resources to maximize the overall benefits without compromising
ecological requirements.
Specific objectives
Determine water demand in the watershed for irrigation, water supply
and other purposes based on the actual data to be collected within the
sub-basin under study
Identify areas of critical water shortage and their location within the
watershed, causes or reasons of water shortage.
Propose mitigation methods to alleviate the problem (both structural
and nonstructural solutions.
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2. DETERMINATION OF WATER DEMAND IN THE CATCHMENTS
Water demand for each of the water use sectors will be analyzed based on
empirical and conceptual equations. It will be done based on disaggregated
or highly aggregated consumption of water evolves overtime in all sectors
of the study area.
2.1 Irrigation Water Demands
Irrigation demands will be carried out for irrigable potential areas which
were identified in irrigation potential topic. Irrigation water demand
analysis includes commercial scheme, traditional small-scale scheme and
community schemes. Irrigation water demand in the sub-basin will be
determined by clustering all irrigation schemes into existing and planned
schemes. The future irrigation scheme water demand will be emphasized on
large and medium-scale irrigation schemes on study periods. These will be
identified from irrigable potential areas and modern schemes are those
studied designed and implemented using modern techniques with the help
of government or non-government organizations (NGO).
Existing irrigation scheme water demand will determined by identifying
currently functioning irrigation project which were owned Government,
private investors and local communities( Subsistence irrigation project).
Data collection existing irrigation scheme includes location of scheme (at
3
which sub-catchment, zone/woredes scheme were found), total command
area, number of beneficiary (households) and cropping pattern for each
scheme. Generally, methods of data collection were summarized below in
Table 2.1.
Table 2.1: Data collection methods
N Nam Location Geographical Comma Croppi Type
of
o e of coordinate nd ng
sche
sche Zone Wore Keb Northi Easti Altitude( areas( patter me
me de ele ng ng m) Ha) n
1 Bilat Alaba Alab - 75800 4040 1462.13 7700 - -
e a 0 00
2 Ebal KT Dam - 72800 3795 1993.7 120 - -
a boya 0 00
3 Bissa Wolia Dam - 68000 3798 1398.31 164 - -
re ta ot 0 00
woid
a
.
N
Total water demand for irrigation will be estimated by multiplying the total
area under irrigation with the average water requirement for each cropping
pattern .cropping pattern of sub-catchments will be determined from
secondary data from woredes(Agriculture office and rural development
office) and consultation with the beneficiaries in different kebelas.
Crop water requirement (CWR) for different irrigation scheme will be
calculated by using the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), crop
coefficient(kc) and effective precipitation (P) as shown below or by using
CROPWAT 8.0 (FAO,2006). CROPWAT 8.0
ETc=ETo*K
4
CWR (mm/period) =ETc-P eff
Where, p eff is effective rainfall (mm) and Kc is crop
coefficient
The Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) were calculated by using FAO
Penman-Monteith Method( FAO, 2006) by using climatic data(temperature,
humidity, sunshine and wind speed) that were collected from nearest and
most representative meteorological station. In some irrigation scheme,
lacks of climatic information needed for CROPWAT 8.0 were filled by using
climatic data base the so called CLIMWAT. Crop coefficient (Kc), crop
growth stages, rooting depths, critical depletion fraction, yield responses
factor, maximum crop height and length of growth stage were fixed for
different crops according FAO standards and local conditions of study area.
Effective rainfalls used for crop water requirement were calculated based
on information available on local conditions. Therefore, fixed percentages
(80 %) of monthly rainfall were taken as effective rainfall.
2.2 Domestic Water Demand
The domestic water supply requirement within the sub- basin will be
focused on urban and rural centers which will identified for each sub-
catchments as lumped demands. Domestic water demand for current and
future study will be calculated using the equation below.
Domestic water demand = activity level * water use rate per activity
Where, activity level indicates number of population and types of activities
(commercial, institutional, fire protection and public) in each sub-
catchment.
In generally domestic water demand for whole study area calculation
procedure expressed below in Figure 2.1.
Bilate sub-basin domestic water demand
Sub-Catchment-1 Sub-catchment-2 Sub-catchment-3
(Upper bilate) (Middle Bilate) (Lower Bilate)
5
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
areas areas areas areas areas areas
area
Figure: 2.1:domestic water demand analysis method
In above diagram rural water demand encompasses small village towns and
all domestic-type water requirements outside of urban areas. According to
Robert (2006) urban areas water demands may be taken as lumped demand
which includes direct demands (product of population figures and per capita
usage) and indirect demands (encompassed all industrial, commercial,
institutional and municipal water). The industrial water demand will be
determined for currently existing and planned industrial projects. These
demands will be analyzed for each sub-catchment by broking into more
disaggregated sectors or lumped in together.
Future water demand calculated by multiplying the projected population
number by the appropriate per capita usage number. The method of
population projection for future period will be selected by examining the
growths of the community have occurred between recent censuses.
Accordingly if the rate of growth is constant in successive census, simple
arithmetic mean method will be selected to project population. The
population in the future is then estimated using equation below
Pt = Po + Kt
Δ p
K =
Δt
Where Pt = the population at some time in the future
Po = the present population
t = the period of the projection
Based on population growth rate of sub-basin, there will be three scenarios
developed on future domestic water demands to describe the uncertainty in
the evolution of the domestic water demands. These scenarios include lower
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growth scenarios, medium growth scenarios and higher growth scenarios
including population change and increase in the per capita usage of water
due to anticipated socioeconomic development.
2.3 Livestock and Wildlife Water Demand
Water resource is pertinent and vital for the existence and development of
the livestock sector (Zinash et al., 2003). Therefore recognizing these
demands in water balance study will avoid various conflicts that will arise
from the shared use of these limited resources. Water demand for livestock
and wildlife will be estimated by multiplying tropical livestock unit (TLU)
and unit water requirement for each livestock. Water requirement for TLU
will be fixed according Ethiopian conditions and FAO standards, and
livestock population number obtained from regional Agricultural and Rural
Development Bureau Offices (Regional, Zonal and Weredas). Livestock
population type will be expressed in tropical livestock unit (TLU) by using
conversion factor as follows in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: TLU conversion factor
Species type TLU
camels 1.6
sheep 0.1
donkeys 0.4
cattle 0.7
goats 0.1
Source: Zinash et al. (2003)
Also according to MOWR, 2009 master plan study on RVLB, the average
holding in Oromiya is 4.11 TLU per household and 0.53 TLU per person. For
SNNPRS the averages are 2.81 TLU and 0.36 TLU. Therefore water demand
for livestock will be calculated for each sub catchment selecting either of
above methods.
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2.4 Environmental Flow Requirement
The key water allocation policies in Ethiopia (2010) are recognized that the
basic minimum requirement as the reserve has the highest priority in any
water allocation plan. Quantifying amount of water needed for
environmental flow demand in water resource allocation modeling involves
determining the water quantity and quality requirements that will ensure
ecological functioning of river and recharging groundwater aquifer. There
are different methodologies used to EFR calculation which ranges general
water resources planning to the setting of detailed plans for managed
hydraulic structures (IWMI 2010, Ahmed 2015, Smakhtin et al., 2006;
Mazvimavi et al., 2007). Environmental flow requirement (EFR) will be also
calculated by using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software.
3. DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL WATER ALLOCATION FOR
COMPETING WATER REQUIREMENTS
Optimum water allocation will be carried out to match the water
requirements of various competing sectors in the sub-basin with the
available water resources in order to attain both economic and ecological
sustainability. Optimal allocation will be expected to maximize flow in the
sub-basin, satisfying existing and projected demands, and ensuring an
equitable distribution of water deficit in all demands sites. Mathematical
models or computer code based model have been used in several studies
around the world for analyses of water availability and water allocation
(Tena et al.,2016; Erick, 2010; McCartney et al.,2009).
The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model will be applied to
evaluate optimum water allocation. This model will be selected due to it
takes an integrated approach to water resource planning, have GIS based
graphical drag and drop interface, consider d/s consequences of the
development of physical infrastructure, forecast the future water allocation
and Scenarios management capability. WEAP21 solve the water allocation
problems by using a linear programming technique. Linear programming
technique (LP) is mathematical modeling techniques useful for the
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allocation of the scarce or limited resource on the basis of a given criteria of
optimality. In WEAP 21 linear programming, the individual demand site,
reservoirs, and in stream flow requirements are assigned a unique priority
number, which are integers that range from 1 (highest priority) to 99
(lowest priority). Therefore, allocation by linear programming will be
carried out sequentially with priority at each times step.
The optimal allocation will be carried out for the following scenarios and
their effect will be on water balance will be analyzed. These are:
What if the increase of domestic water demand (lower growth rate,
medium growth rate and high growth rate) and economic
development changed?
What if alternative land change and management practice will be
applied?
What if agricultural growth and construction of hydropower project
implemented?
What if water use efficiencies and climatic variations occur?
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4. IDENTIFICATION OF AREAS OF CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGE
AND THEIR LOCATION WITHIN THE WATERSHED CAUSES OF
WATER SHORTAGE
Water scarcity or shortage occurs mostly in dry seasons due to low rainfall,
low river flow and increased demand for water use. Areas with critical
water shortage will be identified by allocating available water resources for
all demands sectors in each sub-catchment. WEAP will be used to determine
the coverage report, which gives a quick assessment of how well demands
are being met. Therefore, total amount of each demand site’s requirement
that is not well met will be calculated and the magnitude of shortage will be
computed (Un-coverage).
Un-coverage % Ds=100- coverage % of Ds
N
Coverage % of Ds = ∑ ¿ ¿ ¿*100
src=1
Where, Ds is demand site, src is transmission link and N is number of
transmission link.
Transmission links carry water from local and river supplies to demand
sites, subject to losses and physical capacity, contractual and other
constraints. WEAP allocates water according to the supply priority
associated with each demand site. The demand site may be connected to
Transmission links
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more than one supply source with more than one transmission link as shown
below in figure 2.2.
Demand site-2
(Irrigation demand) Demand site-1
(Domestic water)
Ground water
Surface water
Demand site-3 Demand site-N
(environmental flow) (Livestock,wildlife,etc)
Supply sources
Figure:2.2:optimal water allocation mechanisms
Each demand site with multiple sources can specify its preference for a
source, due to economic, environmental, historical, legal or political
reasons. From above diagram domestic water supply have a preference of 1
from ground water and 2 or above from surface water. The sites with the
highest priorities (lowest numbers) get water first, followed by sites with
lower priorities (higher numbers), as availability allows. Therefore allowing
water from sources to demand site, and areas with shortage will be
identified. if Un-coverage for demand sites occurred in different demands
areas, the shortage of water will be faced. Finally the reason of water
shortage in current conditions and future condition will be identified either
due to pollution, overuse of water, water wastage, drought, distances, and
restriction by government, and destruction of water catchment areas.
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5. STUDY AND PRESENTATION OF IRRIGATION WATER USE
INSTITUTIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE FRAMEWORK UNDER
IWRM
5.1 Institutional Arrangements
The study will identify and evaluate various national and international
institutional arrangements for integrated water resource management.
Special emphasis will be given to the experiences of developing countries
with similar socio-economic characteristics to identify suitable institutional
arrangement options or typologies for optimum water use for Bilate
Watershed in particular and Ethiopia in general.
As to national experiences of institutional arrangement, the study will
assess institutions and enterprises related to water and non-water uses, and
identify potential institutional arrangements. In this regards, some of the
institutions to be consulted may include Ministry of Water Irrigation and
Electricity, Ethio-telecom, etc. In addition, the experiences of the different
River Basin Authorities’, including the Rift valley and Awash River Basin, in
terms of irrigation and other water use institutional arrangements will
analyzed.
The study will also involve collection of data from primary sources using key
informant interviews and focus group discussions at federal, basin, regional,
district and users level. The consultation with different stakeholders
(government officials, individuals and community based organizations and
associations) will be helpful to identify opportunities and gaps for
institutional arrangements suitable for optimum water use and
management. Moreover, the study will conduct Strength, Weakness,
Opportunities and Threat (SWOT) analysis for the Bilate Watershed to
capitalize on opportunities and fill gaps to propose suitable and efficient
institutional arrangements that take into account the national optimum
water use regulations.
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5.2 Governance
Governance structures can be analyzed from a positive and a normative
perspective. A positive analysis will focus on describing the existing
governance structures and explain why water resources management is
organized the way it is, considering historical and political factors. A
normative analysis will assess the observed governance structures and their
outcomes against a set of normative objectives. Selecting these objectives
necessarily involves value judgments. Using the generally agreed principles
of sustainable development, the following criteria will be considered:
(1) Economic criteria
Efficiency in water use, taking the cost of infrastructure provision and
maintenance into account
Economic impact of water use
(2) Social criteria
Distributional aspects – access of different groups of the population –
including disadvantaged and marginalized groups; upstream and
downstream users; present and future generations – to water for
domestic and agricultural use
(3) Environmental criteria
Sustainability of water use, considering quantity and water quality
(pollution, aquatic biodiversity)
The study will focus on a positive analysis of the water-related governance
structures in Bilate Watershed. The study will also assess the orientations of
different stakeholders regarding these goals, distinguishing between a
developmental orientation (stakeholders focusing primarily on economic
and social goals) and an environmental orientation (stakeholders focusing
primarily on environmental protection goals). A quantitative analysis of the
impact of existing governance structures with regard to these normative
criteria is, however, beyond this analysis.
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