Chapter12
•Some Lessons from Capital
Market History
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk, Return and Financial
Markets
• We can examine returns in the financial
markets to help us determine the
appropriate returns on non-financial assets
• Lessons from capital market history
• There is a reward for bearing risk
• The greater the potential reward, the greater
the risk
• This is called the risk-return trade-off
12-2
Dollar Returns
• Total dollar return = income from
investment + capital gain (loss) due to
change in price
• Example:
• You bought a bond for $950 one year ago.
You have received two coupons of $30 each.
You can sell the bond for $975 today. What is
your total dollar return?
• Income = 30 + 30 = 60
• Capital gain = 975 – 950 = 25
• Total dollar return = 60 + 25 = $85 12-3
Percentage Returns
• It is generally more intuitive to think in
terms of percentages than in dollar returns
• Dividend yield = income / beginning price
• Capital gains yield = (ending price –
beginning price) / beginning price
• Total percentage return = dividend yield +
capital gains yield
12-4
Example – Calculating Returns
• You bought a stock for $35 and you
received dividends of $1.25. The stock is
now selling for $40.
• What is your dollar return?
• Dollar return = 1.25 + (40 – 35) = $6.25
• What is your percentage return?
• Dividend yield = 1.25 / 35 = 3.57%
• Capital gains yield = (40 – 35) / 35 = 14.29%
• Total percentage return = 3.57 + 14.29 = 17.86%
12-5
The Importance of Financial
Markets
• Financial markets allow companies,
governments and individuals to increase their
utility
• Savers have the ability to invest in financial assets
so that they can defer consumption and earn a
return to compensate them for doing so
• Borrowers have better access to the capital that is
available so that they can invest in productive
assets
• Financial markets also provide us with
information about the returns that are required
for various levels of risk 12-6
Average Returns (1926-2003)
Investment Average Annual Return
Large-company stocks 12.4%
Small-company Stocks 17.5%
Long-term Corporate Bonds 6.2%
Long-term Govt. Bonds 5.8%
U.S. Treasury Bills 3.8% **
Inflation (same period) 3.1%
** Considered a “risk free” investment, but note average
return is only slightly over the rate of inflation 12-7
Risk Premiums
• The “extra” return earned for taking on risk
• Treasury bills are considered to be risk-
free
• Risk-free in that there is “zero” risk of default,
but they still carry some price risk—govt.
bonds are traded in the market and prices may
fluctuate as the market fluctuates.
• The risk premium is the return over and
above the risk-free rate
12-8
Table 12.3 Average Annual Returns
and Risk Premiums
Investment Average Return Risk Premium**
Large stocks 12.4% 8.6%
Small Stocks 17.5% 13.7%
Long-term Corporate 6.2% 2.4%
Bonds
Long-term 5.8% 2.0%
Government Bonds
U.S. Treasury Bills 3.8% 0.0%
** Calculated as average return – the risk-free rate (T-bills)
12-9
Efficient Capital Markets
• Stock prices are in equilibrium or are
“fairly” priced
• If this is true, then you should not be able
to earn “abnormal” or “excess” returns
• If there are “excess-return” investments available, the
market will find them and bid the price up, adjusting
effective returns back to “normal”
• Efficient markets DO NOT imply that
investors cannot earn a positive return in
the stock market
12-10
What Makes Markets Efficient?
• There are many investors out there doing
research
• As new information comes to market, this
information is analyzed and trades are made
based on this information
• Therefore, prices should reflect all available
public information
• If investors stop researching stocks, then
the market will not be efficient
12-11
Common Misconceptions about
Efficient Markets Hypothesis
• Efficient markets do not mean that you can’t
make money
• They do mean that, on average, you will earn a
return that is appropriate for the risk undertaken
and there is not a bias in prices that can be
exploited to earn excess returns
• Market efficiency will not protect you from wrong
choices if you do not diversify – you still don’t
want to put all your eggs in one basket
12-12
Chapter12
•End of Chapter
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
