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Business Statistics: Probability Basics

This document provides an introduction and overview of topics to be covered in a lecture on probability for business statistics and research methodology. The lecture will cover [1] probability and probability distributions, [2] statistical decision theory, [3] sampling distributions and estimation, [4] hypothesis testing, [5] ANOVA and Chi Square tests, and [6] correlation and regression analysis. Assignments, exams, attendance, and textbooks are also outlined. Key probability concepts like experiment, event, and theorems around addition and multiplication of probabilities are defined and examples are provided.

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Amit Semwal
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109 views21 pages

Business Statistics: Probability Basics

This document provides an introduction and overview of topics to be covered in a lecture on probability for business statistics and research methodology. The lecture will cover [1] probability and probability distributions, [2] statistical decision theory, [3] sampling distributions and estimation, [4] hypothesis testing, [5] ANOVA and Chi Square tests, and [6] correlation and regression analysis. Assignments, exams, attendance, and textbooks are also outlined. Key probability concepts like experiment, event, and theorems around addition and multiplication of probabilities are defined and examples are provided.

Uploaded by

Amit Semwal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Business Statistics and Research

Methodology
Lecture 1
Introduction to Probability

Hamendra Dangi
hkdangi@[Link]
9968316938

6/1/2007 H Dangi 1
Session Break Up
• Introduction
• Probability
• Practice Test

6/1/2007 H Dangi 2
Topics
• Probability and Probability distribution
• Statistical Decision Theory
• Sampling Distribution and Estimation
• Hypothesis testing
• ANOVA and Chi Square test
• Correlation and Regression Analysis

6/1/2007 H Dangi 3
Text Book

• Levin and Rubin –Statistics for


Management
• Dangi and Dewen: Business research
methods

6/1/2007 H Dangi 4
Internal Assessment

• Mid Term Examination: 10 Marks


• Assignment : 10 Marks
• Attendance : 10 Marks

6/1/2007 H Dangi 5
Probability
• Probability of a given event is an
expression of likelihood or chance of
occurrences of an event

6/1/2007 H Dangi 6
Important Terms
• Experiment and Event : Experiment
describe an act which can be repeated
under some given condition
• If an experiment all the outcome are
known in advance and none of the
outcome can predicted with certainity,than
such an experiment is called random exp
and out come as an event
6/1/2007 H Dangi 7
• Mutual Exclusive Event : Two events are
said to be mutual exclusive when both can
not happen simultaneously in a single
trial.
• Independent and Dependent event: Two
events are more said to be independent
when outcome of one does not affected by
others
6/1/2007 H Dangi 8
Probability Theorem: Addition
• If two events are mutual exclusive the
probability of occurrence of either A or B
is the sum of individual probability
• P ( A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

6/1/2007 H Dangi 9
• If one card is drawn from a standard pack
of 52 what is the probability that it is
either king or queen

6/1/2007 H Dangi 10
When events are not mutual
exclusive
• P ( A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
• What is the probability of drawing an ace
and hearth

6/1/2007 H Dangi 11
Question for Discussion
• A bag contain 30 balls numbered from 1 to
[Link] ball is drawn at [Link] that
number of the ball drawn will be multiple
of a) 5 or 7
b) 3 or 7

6/1/2007 H Dangi 12
Multiplication Theorem
• When two events are independent

P ( A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

6/1/2007 H Dangi 13
Example
• A problem in a subject is given to five
students A,B,C,D and E ,their chances of
solving it are ½ ,1/3, ¼,1/5 ,1/[Link] is the
probability that problem will be solved.

6/1/2007 H Dangi 14
Question
What is the probability of the 53 Sundays in
a leap year

6/1/2007 H Dangi 15
Question
• The odd against A speaking truth are 4:6
while Odd in favor of B speaking the truth
are 7:3 What is the probability they will
contradict each other

6/1/2007 H Dangi 16
Conditional Probability
• If two events are dependent than
conditional probability B given A is

• P (B/A) = P(AB) / P(A)

6/1/2007 H Dangi 17
Example
• A bag contain 5 white and 3 black balls.
Two balls are drawn at random one after
another without [Link]
probability that both are black

6/1/2007 H Dangi 18
Bay’s Theorem
• Assume that a factory has two Machines
M1 and [Link] record suggest that M1
produces 30 percent item while M2
contributes remaining , Further 5% item
produced by M1 is defective while 1%
item by M2 is defective. What is the
probability that an defective item drawn at
random is produced by M1 or M2?
•
6/1/2007 H Dangi 19
PRACTICE TEST

6/1/2007 H Dangi 20
• A husband and wife applied for a loan
from a SHG [Link] that husband
will get loan is 1/7 and that of wife getting
loan is 1/5. What is the probability that
• a) Both of them will get loan
• b) Only one of them will get the loan
• c) None of them will get the loan

6/1/2007 H Dangi 21

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