KURSUS HYDROLOGICAL DATA MANAGEMENT, ANALYSIS

AND DESIGN

4-6 Mac 2019

Institut Pembangunan Modal Insan (Zon Timur)

METHOD OF FLOOD
ESTIMATION
NOR HAMIZAH BINTI MUHAMAD
UNIT TEKNIKAL HIDROLOGI
BAHAGIAN PENGURUSAN SUMBER AIR DAN HIDROLOGI
METHOD OF FLOOD ESTIMATION
HYDROLOGICAL PROCEDURES
published by DID
 WHY WE NEED PROCEDURE?

In case a designer is faced with alternatives :

1) To instrument the catchment for the period required to

collect the hydrological data necessary to derived the
design flood
2) To estimate the design flood using a flood estimation
procedures
 APPROACH IN USING DID’s HPs
 HPs should only be used for ungauged catchments,

 Suitability, limitations and constraints of every HP’s should be

observed,
 Compare results with other HPs,
 Use judgment to adopt the design flood
(based on field investigation, relative strengths and weakness, accuracy, cost impacts and
experience)
 HYDROGRAPH ANALYSIS
Hydrograph = A plot of water level or discharge against time at a
location along the river
FACTORS AFFECTING HYDROGRAPH SHAPE
• Climatic factors;
 rainfall intensity  affects runoff amount and peak flow rate;
 rainfall duration  affects runoff amount, peak flow rate and surface runoff duration ;
 areal distribution of rainfall on the basin  cause hydrograph shape variations;
 type of storm  thunderstorms produce peak flows on small basins, large cyclonic or
frontal-type storms are determinant in larger basins.

• Topographic and Geologic factors;

 catchment size and shape;
 distribution of watercourses;
 catchment slope; Climatic and topographic factors
 catchment storage;  affect the rising limb.
 catchment geology; Geological factors
 landuse.  determine the recession limb.

Source: De Laat and Savenije, 1992

SUITABILITY AND LIMITATIONS OF DID’S HPs
HP 4 HP 5 HP 11 HP 27
(Regional FF Method) (Rational Method) (Snyder Method) (Clark UHM)

A < 200 mile2

Catchment Area Limitation A > 20 km2 A < 186 km2 @518 km2 A < 5,000 km2

Catchment Type Rural Rural Rural Rural

Application Malaysia Peninsular Malaysia Peninsular

Baseflow Estimation Yes

No No Yes (Qb = 0.11 A0.85889)

Design Discharge Output Design Flood Design Flood QPeak & QPeak& Unit
Peak (QPeak) Peak (QPeak) Triangular Hydrograph
Hydrograph

No regulated Rainfall intensity Consider storage Need a computer

flow in the is constant upstream of program to
Other basin; No tidal; during rainfall. outlet. produce hydrograph
Limitations / No significant Catchment slope Synthetic (WebApplication or HEC-
Assumptions landuse change. 0.1% – 8%. Hydrograph. HMS1)
 METHOD OF
FLOOD
ESTIMATION :
Regional Flood
Frequency Method
 INTRODUCTION TO HP 4

 First published in 1974 (data up to 1970 - Peninsular Malaysia)

 Updated in 1987 (data up to 1982 (add 10 years) - Peninsular Malaysia)

 Latest update in 2018 (data up to 2017 - extended to Sabah and

Sarawak)
 Development of :
 Regional Dimensionless Flood Frequency Curves

 Regional Regression Equation of Q an to Mean RFan

 Maps of :
 Map 1 - Flood Frequency Regions (FF Regions)

 Map 2 - Mean Annual Flood Regions (MAF Regions)

HP 4 – MAGNITUDE AND FREQUENCY
OF FLOODS IN MALAYSIA
(Revised and Updated 2018)

 Estimation of Q based on regional analysis.

peak

 Catchment area, mean annual rainfall and mean channel slope

are some of the easily defined characteristics that could affect
Mean Annual Flood (MAF)

 Regional dimensionless flood frequency curves (FFC) and

regional mean annual flood equation (MAE) relating mean
annual flood and catchment characteristics (catchment area
and mean annual rainfall ) were developed

 Applicable to area > 20 km2

10
REGIONALISATION TECHNIQUE – HP
4

Mean annual flood was obtained by regression technique:

MAF =d Aa Rb Sc

Where;
MAF = Mean Annual Flood (m3/s)
A= Catchment area (km2)
R= Mean Annual Rainfall (m)
S = Weighted Average Slope (m/km)
a, b, c & d = parameters of catchment characteristics
ESTIMATION OF FLOOD MAGNITUDE USING
HP4
• Step 1  Determine the catchment area (A ) in km2;

• Step 2  Estimate the Mean Annual Catchment Rainfall (R) in metres;

• Step 3  Determine the MAF region of the catchment from Map 2;

• Step 4  Compute the MAF from the appropriate regional MAF equation;

• Step 5  Determine the flood frequency (FF region) region of the catchment
from Map 1;

• Step 6  Obtain the dimensionless ordinates QT/MAF from the appropriate

regional flood frequency curves for the return periods required OR

calculate using equations;

• Step 7  Determine QTfor the various return periods by multiplying the

QT/MAF factor by the MAF obtain in Step 4.

MAF & DIMENSIONLESS REGIONAL FREQUENCY
CURVES
MAP 1 : FLOOD FREQUENCY REGION (FFR)
MAP 2 : MEAN ANNUAL FLOOD REGION (MAF)
 IN USING HP4 – REMEMBER …

 The catchments must not be significantly regulated (by

reservoir, diversion, etc.)

 The catchments must not be influenced by tidal effects.

 The catchment must be relatively an undeveloped area.

 The catchment area must be larger than 20km 2.

 METHOD OF
FLOOD
ESTIMATION :
Rational Method
 THE RATIONAL METHOD
Why Rational Method Used?
 Simple – Q = CiA
 It is provide satisfactory estimation of peak discharges for
small catchments
 The Rational Method is a deterministic model and gave low
accuracy when individual storms and peak discharges was
considered
 The accuracy will increase by the use of statistic method
 INTRODUCTION TO HP 5

1) This procedure is revised of HP No. 5 (1989)

2) The latest update was on 2010
3) HP5 is applicable for rural catchments in Peninsular Malaysia,
with catchment area up to 186 [Link].
4) Records from 20 small rural catchments with data period 5
years or more, were analyze to provide design data.
 THE RATIONAL METHOD
The Rational Method is a flood estimation technique. It is based
on formula:
QT = 0.278 CTITA
where
QT : is the peak discharge of T - year return period flood (m3/s).

IT : the average intensity of design rainstorm of duration equal to time

of concentrations, TC , and of return period, T years in mm/hr.

TC : is defined as being the time taken for a drop of water to travel

from the most remote part of the catchment to the outlet design
point.
A : the catchment area in [Link].
CT : a dimensionless coefficient, normally considered a function of the
 THE RATIONAL METHOD
Assumptions?

1. The entire catchments area is contributing to the runoff, in

which case the duration of the storm must equal or exceed
the time of concentration, Tc of the catchments
2. The rainfall is distributed uniformly over the catchments area
3. All the catchments loose are incorporated into runoff
efficient, C
 THE RATIONAL METHOD
Design Qpeak and Time of concentration, Tc :

QT = 0.278 CT iT A - Equation 1

- Equation 5
ESTIMATION OF FLOOD USING HP5
• Step 1  Choose a return period for the design (T1);

• Step 2  Estimate T(based

C on catchment characteristics);

• Step 3  Identify Hydrological Region;

• Step 4  Estimate the value of CTfrom Table 2 (based on ARI);

• Step 5  Estimate Rainfall Intensity, i (mm/hr) of duration TC using HP 1

(2015);
• Step 6* Calculate future design Rainfall Intensity using Climate Change
Factor (CCF);

• Step 7  Compute the design discharge, QT;

• Step 8  Adjust QTbased on a future land use scenario using factor F (Appx.
 THE RATIONAL METHOD

Time of concentration, Tc:

 Time required for the water to flow from hydraulic most
remote point to the point under investigation of the drainage
area
 It consists the time overland, to and the travel time in the

drainage system leading to the catchment outlet, td

 Wanielista et al (1997) – Tc is defined as longest travel time

that takes a particle of water to reach the discharge point of
catchment
 THE RATIONAL METHOD

Runoff coefficient, C:
 C is the ratio of peak runoff and the rainfall intensity
 Dimensionless
 rainfall intensity high, C high, effect of the rainfall abstractions
on the peak discharge less
 C accounts effect of interception, infiltration, depression
storage and temporary storage in transit of the peak rate of
runoff
 C depends on the rainfall intensity and the duration,
catchment characteristics (soil groups, land use, land slope)
REGIONAL RUNOFF COEFFICIENT CT FOR FOUR HYDROLOGICAL REGIONS
Dimensionless runoff coefficient, CT (qT / iT)
Hydrological
Regions C2 C5 C10 C20 C50

Region 1 0.1554 0.2055 0.2224 0.2373 0.2534

Region 2 0.1233 0.1837 0.2118 0.2360 0.2602
Region 3 0.2948 0.4113 0.4395 0.4719 0.5036
Region 4 0.3955 0.4684 0.4928 0.5193 0.5421
MULTIPLYING FACTORS TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF CATCHMENT
DEVELOPMENT
 THE RATIONAL METHOD

Rainfall intensity, i:
 Represent the average rainfall intensity over a duration
equals to the time of concentration for the catchment
 Function of geographic location and return interval
 Longer return interval, lower the exceedence frequency,
greater the precipitation intensity for a given storm duration
 IDF curves – family of curves for intensity, duration,
frequency
 THE RATIONAL METHOD

Relationship between Rainfall and Runoff:

 Runoff – fraction of the rainfall that moves over the surface or
through the soil towards surface water features (ponds, lakes,
streams, river, etc)
 Runoff = rainfall – infiltration –surface storage
 Watershed characteristic –
 size of watershed increase = total runoff volumes and peak
runoff rates increase
 Watersheds long and narrow = reduced peak runoff rates
 LIMITATIONS OF HP5
 The use of the procedure to estimate the runoff for larger
areas are not recommended.
 The procedure may not be reliable to estimate the runoff for
areas with steeper slope
 The design flood obtained should be checked with other HPs.
 Decision to adopt the estimated design values should be
complemented by a sound engineering judgement.
 METHOD OF
FLOOD
ESTIMATION :
Synder Synthetic
Unit Hydrograph
Method
 INTRODUCTION TO HP11
 The Rational Method and the regional Flood Frequency
provide a means of estimating the design flood peaks only.
 Deterministic method to estimate design flood hydrograph in
ungauged basin.
 Assume Design flood ≈ Design storm Recurrence Interval.
 Consist of 3 main components:
- Design storm;
- Rainfall-runoff relationship;
- Triangular hydrograph
 The design flood hydrograph is therefore necessary for the
determination of the design discharge at the point of
interest.
 Estimate peak flow, volume and time distribution of runoff
(various ARI)

 Consider differences in the catchments characteristics that

affect floods (different catchment data from topographical
maps).
ESTIMATION OF FLOOD USING HP11

• Determine the catchment area, weighted stream slope and main

STEP 1 stream length from the topographical map.

• Estimate the design rainfall for the specified return period.

STEP 2

• Find area reduction factor, ARF.

STEP 3

• Determine the rainfall temporal pattern region.

STEP 4

28
• Enter the data into the Excel program.
STEP 5
HP 11 - METHOD OF APPLICATION
• Catchment Lag (Lg):

• Peaking Coefficient (Cp):

Location Range of Regional Average

Peninsular Malaysia 0.34 to 0.72 0.55

Sabah 0.33 to 0.72 0.54

Sarawak 0.42 to 0.78 0.64

 HP 11 - METHOD OF APPLICATION
(CONT.)
• Direct Runoff Volume (Q):
i) for storm RF ≤ 75mm, Q = 0.333P (East Coast Peninsular Malaysia)
ii) for storm RF > 75mm, Q =
(East Coast Peninsular Malaysia)

iii ¿ for storm RF ≤ 75 mm , Q =0.176 P (West Coast Peninsular Malaysia)

P²
iv ¿ for storm RF >75 mm ,Q =
( P+350) (West Coast Peninsular Malaysia)
v ¿ for storm RF ≤ 75 mm , Q=0.2 P
(Sabah)
P²
iv ¿ for storm RF >75 mm ,Q = (Sabah)
( P+300)
v ¿ for storm RF ≤ 75 mm , Q=0.31 9 P (Sarawak)
P²
iv ¿ for storm RF >75 mm ,Q =
( P+1 60) (Sarawak)
TE
BOUNDARY
OF WEST
COAST AND
EAST
COAST
CATCHMEN
TS
 HP 11 - METHOD OF APPLICATION
(CONT.)
• Peak Discharge of Triangular Hydrograph (qp):

• Design Baseflow (B):

Qb = 0.11A0.8589 (Peninsular Malaysia)
Qb = 0.0783A0.8653 (Sabah)
31
Qb = 0.0111A 1.1682
(Sarawak)
 HP 11 - METHOD OF APPLICATION
(CONT.)
• Outflow Peak Discharge (Qp), consider effect of storage upstream (routing):
Critical Storm Duration
(Storm Duration that produce highest
Peak Discharge)

50 years ARI
50 years ARI

(D = 0.25hr, 0.5hr, 1hr, 3hrs, 6hrs, 12hrs, 24hrs, 48hrs & 32

72hrs)
 WORKED EXAMPLE
Calculate the 50-year ARI Design Flood:
 Area, A: 546 km2 Derived hydrographs: The critical storm
 River Length, L: 65.5 km is 24 hours
 Slope: 1.37%
 Rainfall Temporal Region :1
 Peaking Coefficient, Cp: 0.54
 Lag Time: 5.4 hrs (Calculated using
Equation 25)
 Rainfall: 50 years ARI

Durations (hrs) 18 24 36
Rainfall (mm) 274 305 340
ARF 0.89 0.92 0.92
Rainfall Durations (hrs) 18 24 36
28

Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1351 1570 1389

 LIMITATIONS HP11
Not be used on catchment less than 20 km 2 and larger

than 2,000 km2 for Peninsular Malaysia, less than 100 km 2

and larger than 3,000 km2 for Sabah and less than 20 km2
and larger than 2,500 km2 for Sarawak.
Not be used as a design basis when serious consequences

such as major damage and loss of life would result from

the design flood being exceeded.
 METHOD OF
FLOOD
ESTIMATION :
Clark Unit
Hydrograph Method
 HP 27 - ESTIMATION OF DESIGN FLOOD
HYDROGRAPH USING CLARK METHOD FOR RURAL
CATCHMENT IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (CLARK UH)

• Assume  Design Flood ≈ Design Storm Recurrence Interval;

• Consist of 4 main components:

– Design storm;

– Rainfall-runoff relationship;

– Time Distribution of Runoff;

– Direct Runoff Hydrograph.

• Estimate peak flow, volume and time distribution of runoff (various ARI);

• Consider differences in the catchment characteristics that affect floods

(different
catchment data from topographical maps);
 OBJECTIVES OF HP 27
To derive of Clark's parameters i.e. time of concentration (Tc),
and storage attenuation coefficient (R) for gauged catchments
using the recorded stream flow and rainfall data.

To establish a relationship between the Clark's parameters and

physical characteristics of catchments such as stream length
and stream slopes etc. based on homogeneous hydrological
regions.

The relationships can then be used to estimate parameters for

ungauged catchments.
 DEVELOPMENT OF PROCEDURE
 The design flood is derived from a hypothetical design storm.

 Cordery et. al. (1970) shows that three common steps are used

in estimating design flood hydrographs:

 The specifications of design storm which includes the return

period, the total rainfall volume, the areal distribution of rainfall

and the rainfall temporal distribution and its duration.
 The estimation of runoff volume resulting from the design storm

 The time distribution of runoff from the catchment

 DESIGN STORM

(i) Return Period

 Return Period of design flood = Return period of design storm

(ii) Point Rainfall Depth and Frequency

 Hydrological Procedure No. 1 (HP1, 2015) can be used to

estimate the depth of rainfall of a specified return period

and duration for any point in Peninsular Malaysia.
 DESIGN STORM
(iii) Areal Reduction Factor Catchment Area
( km2 ) Storm Duration (hrs)

1/2 1 3 6 24
 Areal Reduction 0 1 1 1 1 1
Factors of Hydrological 50 0.82 0.88 0.94 0.96 0.97

Procedure No. 1 (1982) 100 0.73 0.82 0.91 0.94 0.96

is adopted for this 150 0.67 0.78 0.89 0.92 0.95

study 200 0.63 0.75 0.87 0.90 0.93

250 0.61 0.73 0.85 0.89 0.93

300 0.59 0.71 0.84 0.88 0.93

400 0.58 0.68 0.81 0.86 0.92

500 0.67 0.80 0.85 0.92

600 0.66 0.79 0.84 0.91

800 0.65 0.78 0.83 0.91

1000 0.78 0.83 0.91

 DESIGN STORM

(iv) Temporal Distribution

 Selected durations : ½, 3, 6, 24 and 72 hours based on

Hydrological Procedure No.1 (HP1,2015)

(v) Duration
 Design storm duration adopted as the duration which gives

the maximum discharge.

TE
BOUNDARY
OF WEST
COAST AND
EAST
COAST
CATCHMEN
TS
 HP 27 - METHOD OF APPLICATION

• East Coast / West Coast Boundary: • Stream Weighted Mean Slope (S):

(km)
(m/km)

• Design Rainfall Depth (P) from

HP1:
*RF Depth calculation in mm

*Rainfall Depth, P = i x d (mm)

 HP 27 - METHOD OF APPLICATION (CONT.)

• Clark Time of Concentration (Tc): • Design Baseflow (QB):

Tc = 2.32 A -0.1188 L 0.9573 S -0.5074 QB = 0.11 A 0.85889

A = Catchment Area (km2) QB = Baseflow (m3/s)

L = main Stream Length (km) A = Catchment Area (km2)
S = Weighted Slope of Main Stream (m/km)

• Storage Coefficient (R):

R = 2.976 A -0.1943 L 0.9995 S -0.4588

A = Catchment Area (km2)

L = main Stream Length (km)
S = Weighted Slope of Main Stream (m/km)
 HP 27 - METHOD OF APPLICATION (CONT.)

• Direct Runoff (Q): • Direct Runoff (Q):

 East Coast Catchments  West Coast Catchments
i) for RF depth, P ≤ 75mm, Q = 0.33P (Eq.1) i) for RF depth, P ≤ 75mm, Q = 0.176P (Eq.3)

ii) for RF depth, P > 75 mm, (Eq.2) ii) for RF depth, P > 75 mm, (Eq.4)
 HP 27 – DESIGN PROCEDURES (METHOD 1: WEB-BASED PROGRAM )

• Step 1  Determine flood region (East / West Coast) (Fig. 3);

• Step 2  Compute stream length (L), Catchment Area (A) and stream weighted
mean slope (S) (Eq.9) (from topographic maps/GIS);
• Step 3  Estimate point design rainfall depth based on HP1 for the specified ARI
(various
storm durations);
• Step 4* Calculate future design Rainfall Depth using Climate Change Factor (CCF);

• Step 5  Find Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) from HP1;

• Step 6  Identify rainfall temporal pattern (from HP1) and determine the fraction of
total rainfall in each interval;

• Step 7  Enter these data into the Web-based program (Program will calculate Clark
Parameters; Time of Concentration (TC), Storage Coefficient (R), Direct Runoff and
design baseflow (QB) automatically;
Open web browser and enter the URL:
[Link]
Click H27 : Unit Hydrograph for Food Estimation of
Design Flood Hydrograph Using Clark Method for Rural
Catchments in Peninsular Malaysia.
User will be redirected to the input parameter page.
Enter data for Clark Parameter. Click Calculate TC & R.
Enter data for Design Parameter. Click Calculate.
User will be redirected to result page.
 
HP 27 - METHOD OF APPLICATION
(CONT.)
Output page:
 METHOD OF
LOW FLOW
ESTIMATION :
Magnitude and
Frequency of Low
Flows in Peninsular
Malaysia
(Revised and Updated 2015)
 INTRODUCTION TO HP12

A method for estimating the low river flow of a

specified duration and frequency for ungauged rivers in
Peninsular Malaysia (data up to 2015).

 Provides low flow frequency estimates for 1 day through 30

day duration at return periods of 2 to 50 years.

L-moments were used for the regional low flow

frequency analysis.
ESTIMATION OF MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM D-
DAY FLOW
Estimate the low flow of ungauged catchments :
𝑄1 =1.675 ∗10− 11 ∗ 𝐴 0.984 ∗ 𝑅2.600

𝑄 4=2.129∗ 10− 11 ∗ 𝐴 0.982 ∗ 𝑅2.580

𝑄7 =2.423 ∗ 10−11 ∗ 𝐴 0.984 ∗ 𝑅 2.568

𝑄30 =3.157 ∗ 10−11 ∗ 𝐴0.986 ∗ 𝑅2.562

Where = mean annual minimum 1, 4, 7, 30 day flow

A=catchment area in km2
R= mean annual catchment rainfall in mm
 IN USING HP 12, REMEMBER…

• The catchments must be in rural in nature.

• There is no big storage in the catchment like storage
reservoirs.
• Care should be exercised in applying the procedure to small
catchments (areas below 20km2)
PROCEDURE IN DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION
MAXIMUM FLOOD YES
REQUIRED?

YES

HYDROGRAPH YES CONCEPTUAL

SHAPE APPROACH

GAUGED SITES UNGAUGED SITES

NO

STOCHASTIC NO
APPROACH
PROCEDURE YES HYDROGRAPH YES PROCEDURE
YES AVAILABLE? REQUIRED? AVAILABLE?

AT-SITE REGIONAL YES

NO
ESTIMATION ESTIMATION NO NO

Rural with area Rural with area CHOOSE

CHOOSE less than 100km2
THE MODEL less than 500km2 THE MODEL
HP5 HP11
YES
PROCEDURE
AVAILABLE? Rural or Urban Urban with area Rural or Urban
less than 50km2
HP16

YES

HYDROLOGICAL MODEL CALIBRATION

PROCEDURE Hydrologic Software [Link] Software
NO.4 Hydrologic module [Link] module
Setting of Parameter Setting of Parameters [Link] of Parameter
Estimate the parameter Estimate the parameters [Link] the parameter
MODEL VERIFICATION

DESIGN RAINSTORM DESIGN RAINSTORM

ESTIMATE
ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE
DESIGN FLOOD,
DESIGN FLOOD, QT DESIGN FLOOD, QT DESIGN FLOOD, QT DESIGN FLOOD, QT
QT
 Catchment Determination

Physical (Area, Length, Hydrologic

Slope) (P Design)

Tc Temporal Pattern 5
jam
ARF

Intensity Design

Discharge,
Q

Online Design CUH (manual) HP 11 HP 5 HP 4

(HP 27)
t / tc, A / Ac Q Q peak Q peak
15 min 15 min
Web Based
(Area, Length, IUH Qp, tp, tb, lg
Slope) A < 186 km2 A > 20 km2
Convolution
Tc, R, Base UH
flow, lg 1 jam
3 jam
Design UH (Tc,
5 min R, ordinate-Q, 30 minit
DFH
Base flow) A< 500 km2
(ordinate-Q)
(A< 200
mile2)

A < 3,000 km2

 ACKNOWLEDGEME
NT
for the material used in this presentation

• Ir. Mohd. Zaki Bin Mat Amin (NAHRIM)

• Hazalizah Binti Hj. Hamzah (BPSAH)
• Ir. Mohd. Zaharifudin Bin Muhamad Ali
(PRABN)
• Mohamad Hafiz Bin Hassan
THANK YOU