Impact of climate change on water resources

Dr .[Link]
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Anna University , Thoothukudi campus
 Contents

1. Introduction
2. Climate change
3. Evidence of climate change
4. Impacts of climate change on water
resources
5. Adaptation to climate change
6. Conclusions
 INTRODUCTION
• Water is vital for all forms of life and
survival.

• Freshwater resources are limited, protection

and management are of utmost importance.

• Sustainable management of freshwater

resources depends on an understanding of
how climate, freshwater, and biophysical and
socioeconomic systems are interconnected
at different spatial scales.
 INTRODUCTION (cont.)
•At watershed scales, at regional scales, and
at a global scale.

•Recently documented activities contributing to

climate change can be a major challenge to the
availability of freshwater quantity (too much or too
less) or quality.

•These activities will play a critical role in sectorial

and regional vulnerability to water resource
mismanagement.
 INTRODUCTION (cont.)
•Use of water has increased manifold over
recent decades due to the increase in
population, industrialization, economic
growth, energy production, changes in life
style, and irrigation demand.

•Global irrigated land has increased

approximately from 140 million ha in 1961–
1963 to 270 million ha in 1997–1999 to 400
million ha in 2016-2020.
 INTRODUCTION (cont.)
On a global scale,
basins are generally called water-stressed
if they have a per-capita water availability
below 1,000 m3/year (based on long-term
average runoff).
 Range of vulnerabilities
range of vulnerabilities that may be affected
by future climate change, superimposed on a map
range of vulnerabilities that may be affected
by future climate change, superimposed on a map
of water stress of water stress

Range of vulnerabilities that may be affected by future climate change,

superimposed on a map of water stress
Water use
By 2025, 800 million people will
experience absolute water scarcity, and
two-thirds of the world
population could
be under stress conditions.

1.1 billion people have no

access to any type of improved
drinking source of water.
A schematic view of many of the processes and
interactions in the global climate system
 Interactions in the global climate system
Climate change leads to changes in the hydrologic
cycle since different components of the climatic
system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere.

Therefore, climate change affects water resources

both directly and indirectly.
 What Is Climate Change?
Natural ecosystems are generally driven by climatic
patterns of a region quantified by the patterns in
hydrometeorological variables, such as temperature,
precipitation, humidity, and wind.

Climate change is defined by the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as changes in the state
of the climate that can be identified by changes in its
properties and that persist for an extended period,
typically decades or longer, due to natural internal
processes or external forcing or to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or in land use.
Global warming
“global warming” which is defined as “the
increase in average temperature near the
Earth’s surface.”

as a result of increased emissions of

greenhouse gases from human activities.
Climate change
Climate change-which can result from either natural
factors or human activities-refers to any significant
change in weather patterns lasting for an extended
period of time, typically 30 years or longer.
Climate change encompasses both increases and
decreases in temperature, as well as shifts in
precipitation patterns and changes in the level of
risk of severe weather events. This includes changes
in average conditions as well as extreme conditions.
 Climate change Adaptation
• Mitigation, in the context of climate change, refers to actions
taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere.

• Adaptation refers to actions taken to build resilience and to

adjust to the impacts of climate change on society and the
environment.
Causes of Climate Change
 major greenhouse gases, result
of human activities, and they
accumulate in the atmosphere,
and the concentration increases
with time.

 causes of the increase in CO2

are the increased use of fossil
fuel use in transportation,
building heating and cooling,
and the manufacture of cement
and other goods.

 Human activities, such as

agriculture, natural gas
distribution, and landfills, result
Atmospheric concentrations of in increases in CH4, whereas
important long-lived greenhouse gases the use of fertilizer and the
over the last 2,000 years burning of fossil fuels leads to
increases in N2O.
 Causes of Climate Change
Radiative Forcing & Natural Processes
energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system can be measured
based on radiative forcing, which is usually quantified as the rate of
energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the
atmosphere.

The Earth-atmosphere system gets warmer when radiative forcing is

positive; for negative radiative forcing, the energy will ultimately
decrease, leading to a cooling of the system.

The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due
to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and
volcanic eruptions.
 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Increases in Temperature
Changes in Precipitation Patterns

CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES

Runoff
Floods
Drought
Snowmelt and Glacier Melt
Water Quality
Groundwater
Annual global mean observed temperatures
 surface temp. increased by
approximately 0.74 C over
the past 100 years (between
1906 and 2005),

 an increase (0.35 C)
occurring in the global
average temperature from the
1910s to the 1940s,

 followed by a slight cooling

(0.1 C), and then a rapid
warming (0.55 C) up to the
end of 2006

For shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated

warming.
Linear trend of annual surface air temperatures
Trend of annual land precipitation amounts
 higher increase in tropical
precipitation intensity due to an
increase in water vapor,

 while mid-latitude intensity

increases are related to circulation
changes that affect the distribution
of increased water vapor

 increase in evaporation due to

the rise in temperature has led to
more precipitation
Change in annual runoff 2041–2060 relative to 1900 –1970
 Ensemble of 24 climate
, model runs.

 runoff change in the high

latitudes of North America
and Eurasia, with increases
of 10–40 % .

 decreasing runoff by 10–30

%, in the Mediterranean,
southern Africa, and
western USA/northern
Mexico.
Between the late twentieth century and 2050, the
areas of decreased runoff will expand
Spatial distribution of extreme floods from three
different causes (a) Heavy rain (b) Brief torrential rain (c) Snowmelt
The common cause of flooding
in India is the tremendous
impact of monsoonal rain,
which causes levy breaks .

Intense rainfall of long duration

induced extreme flooding in five
countries of central and Eastern
Europe in August 2002.

On the global scale the number

of great inland flood during the
last 10 years (between 1996
and 2005) is twice as large, per
decade, as between 1950 and
1980, while economic losses
have increased by a factor of 5
Trend in PDSI-PM per decade Penman–Monteith potential
evapotranspiration

 overall drying trend with a

decrease in the global
average PDSI of
0.30/decade projected for
the first half of the twenty-
first century,

 while the rate of drying

over the second half of the
twenty-first century
increases, with the PDSI-
PM decreasing by
0.56/decade.
(a) ensemble mean of first half of twenty-first century
(b) ensemble mean of second half of twenty-first
century
Proportion of land surface in drought for twenty-first
century

 projected increase in the

proportion of the land
area under drought over
the twenty-first century.

 this increase continues

throughout the twenty-
first century.
 Water Quality
Global warming would lead to lower dissolved oxygen
contents.

Increase in runoff and erosion due to greater

precipitation increased pollutant transport.

Factors influencing water quality include soil,

geological formations and terrain in catchment areas
(river basins), surrounding vegetation, human
activities, precipitation and runoff from adjacent land,
and biological, physical, and chemical processes in
water.
 Groundwater
Global warming will likely affect groundwater
resources by altering precipitation and temperature
patterns, which will likely be further aggravated by
overexploitation.

Based on NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate

Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites, the groundwater in
the states of Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana in India is
declining at a rate of 33 cm/year.
 Vulnerability of Water Resources to
Climate Change
• Changes to water supplies,
• Increased amounts of water pollution,
• risks to water and wastewater Infrastructure
and operations,
• Degradation of watersheds,
• Multiple impacts in coastal areas, and
• Ocean acidification
Changes to Water Supplies
Impacts Challenges
longer droughts , Changing
patterns of precipitation, and Costs to find alternative water supplies or to pay for
increased evaporation will treating degraded sources
result in changes in water
availability
Sea level rise and salt water
intrusion into ground water Encouraging customers to support water conservation
aquifer
Warmer air temperatures
created increased demand for need to develop, and ensure safe use of, ‘non
water traditional’ water supplies such as using water from
showers and dishwashers for irrigation or toilet
flushing

Increased competition for stressed water supplies

between urban demand, agriculture, energy
production, and ecological needs
Increased Water Pollution
Impacts Challenges
reduced ability of warm water to hold Ensure that Clean Water Act standards and
dissolved oxygen, making instances of permits can meet water quality protection
low oxygen levels goals

More intense precipitation,

potentially increasing stormwater Control storm water and sewer overflow
runoff and causing sewer overflows

Intense rainfall events increasing

velocity of stream flow, causing more
erosion and sedimentation . Work to preserve biodiversity of species that
Dry periods and drought lowering rely on certain seasonal stream flows or water
stream flow and reducing dilution of temperatures
pollutant discharges
Risks to Infrastructure and Operations
Impacts Challenges
Extended flood nazard areads,risking Aging infrastructure and population growth
damage to water treatment combined with climate risks.
infrastructure

Damage to distribution and collection Paying for O& M , responding to emergencies,

pipelines due to drier soils and and conducting long term climate planning.
erosion from storm damage

Operations of water treatment adopt policies and practices that integrate

systems complicated by unusual planning for climate change into their overall
changes in temperature, flows, management plans and invest in emergency
sedimentation, saltwater intrusion response planning.
etc,
Watershed Degradation
Impacts Challenges
Changes in precipitation and increased Protecting healthy and intact
evaporation are likely to change flows to lakes watersheds
andstreams, affecting the extent and quality of
wetlands, lakes, and estuaries.

Declining groundwater levels due to withdrawals Restoring ecological integrity of

and reduced recharge are likely to reduces tream waters already under stress from
flows. urbanization .

Temperature and other changes will affect habitat Maintaining ecosystem services
for certain species, such as cold-water fish. provided by watersheds and
wetlands.
Coastal Impacts
Impacts Challenges

Rising sea levels moving shorelines by to find optimum strategies for

inundating lowlands, displacing wetlands, and retrofitting, protecting, or moving
altering tidal ranges. infrastructure .

Storm surges, combined with sea-level rise,

increasing the areas subject to periodic to better communicate risk to
inundation and saltwater intrusion into residents in vulnerable areas
groundwater

Water pollution and increased absorption of

carbon dioxide creating coastal zone “hotspots” protect habitat as sea levels rise.
ofacidification and hypoxia
Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem
Impacts Challenges
Understanding the ecological and
The carbon dioxide reacts with seawater to economical impacts of acidification
form carbonic acid, lowering ocean pH levels,
which is known as “ocean acidification.

Shellfish and corals are sensitive to rising Reducing land and air sources of
acidity, which makes it difficult for them to pollutants.
create and maintain the skeletal structures they
need for support and protection.

75 percent of the world’s coral reefs are

threatened by the compounding effects of Finding ways to protect Shellfish
ocean acidification, overfishing, nutrient and corals .
pollution, warming waters, and disease.
Indian River Basin
In India, Himalayan range is the
greatest source of pure water in the
form of snow that melts and
transverses through 45,000 km long
riverine networks.

thirteen major river basins which

occupy around 83% of total
drainage basin area with 85% of
total surface flow

river basins experienced a

remarkable change in path, flow,
water availability and reducing their
self-natural purification capacity in
last few decades.
Impact of climate change on water resources of upper
Kharun catchment in Chhattisgarh, India
For 2020s, annual discharge is
expected to decrease by 2.9%.

For 2050s (2080), simulated

annual discharge expected to
increase by 12.4% (39.5%).

Over-(under-proportional)
runoff-rainfall (percolation-
rainfall) relationship simulated.

•Relationships indicate future

increase (decrease) of floods
(groundwater recharge).
The Ganga River Basin
temperature has increased
0.060C/year in Nepal region.

precipitation over the Ganges

Basin shows that monsoon
precipitation has increased
about 10 to 12.5%.

mean annual runoff of the River

Ganga will increase about 5%
by 2070 – 2100.
The Brahmaputra River Basin
Temperature might increase from
1.3 0C to 2.4 0C by 2050, followed
by 2.0 0C to 4.5 0C by 2100.

the monthly evapotranspiration is

likely to increase 5% to 18% by
2050 followed by 7% to 36% by
2100.

the variation in rainfall to be 14%

decrease to 15 % increase by 2050
and 28 % decrease to 22 %
increase by 2100 .

climate change might be

responsible for the alteration in the
physical characteristics of
Brahmaputra River basin shortly
Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin
disaster risks like high exposure
to floods and droughts, reduction
of sediment supply and alteration
in water flow due to dams and
abstractions in the GBM delta
could increase in the next 15-30
years and might be responsible for
the sinking of deltas.

rising of sea-level in the GBM

delta could directly affect more
than 3 million people and lose
nearly one-quarter of the land
area.
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The major problem of adaptation to climate change might be related
to the multiple dimensions involved, which include for example,
various sectors (water resources, agriculture, industrial);
the spatial scale (local, regional, national);
type of action (physical, technological, investment, regulatory,
market); and
 climatic zones (dry land, floodplains, mountains, and arctic
regions).
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The major problem of adaptation to climate change might be related
to the multiple dimensions involved, which include for example,
various sectors (water resources, agriculture, industrial);
the spatial scale (local, regional, national);
type of action (physical, technological, investment, regulatory,
market); and
 climatic zones (dry land, floodplains, mountains, and arctic
regions).
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The major focus on climate adaptation has emerged since the third
assessment report of IPCC highlighted several strategies, including
adaptations to
observed climate changes,
planned adaptations to climate change in infrastructure design and
coastal zone management,
the variable nature of vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.

For several decades measures have been in place to reduce climate

impacts by understanding

their variability on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales so as to

develop climate forecasting methods,
risk analysis based on disasters, and
crop and livelihood diversification
 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Various types of adaptations have been implemented around the world
Drought:
enhancing the use of traditional rainwater harvesting and water-
conserving techniques,

building of shelter belts and windbreaks to improve the resilience of

rangelands and setting up of revolving credit funds (e.g., for Sudan,
Africa) inclusion of drought-resistant plants,

adjustment of planting dates and crop variety, accumulation of

commodity stocks as economic reserves,

creation of local financial pools (for Mexico and Argentina) creating

employment program options following drought in national
government programs and assistance to small subsistence farmers to
increase crop production
 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Sea-level rise:
acquisition of land with a view to climate change to acquire coastal lands
damaged/ prone to damage by storms or buffering other lands (e.g., New
Jersey Coastal Blue Acres land acquisition program in the USA).

Installation of hard structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion and

adoption of a national climate change action plan integrating climate change
concerns into national policies (e.g., in Egypt).

Introduction of participatory risk assessment, capacity building for

shoreline defense system design, construction of cyclone-resistant housing
units, and review of building codes (e.g., in Philippines).

Adoption of Flooding Defense Act and Coastal Defense Policy as

precautionary measures allowing for the incorporation of emerging trends in
climate and building of a storm surge barrier taking a 50-cm sea-level rise
into account (e.g., in the Netherlands)
 Limitations in Adaptation to Climate
Change
Threshold Level of Ecosystem

Technological Limits

Financial Barriers

Informational and Cognitive Barriers

Social and Cultural Barriers

 CONCLUSIONS
Overall changes in large-scale hydrologic cycles are observed based
on spatiotemporal scales.

Increased frequency in heavy precipitation events, runoff patterns,

reductions in snow cover, and shifts in the amplitude and timing of
glacial runoff.

Based on global climate models, precipitation is likely to increase in

high latitudes and decrease in lower mid-latitude regions during the
twenty-first century.

The basic food sector (i.e., availability, stability, and access), which
will likely be affected by changes in the quantity and quality of water
resources.
 CONCLUSIONS
Water quality, will decrease because of imbalances in several factors,
including sediments, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens,
pesticides, salt, and thermal pollution.

Quantity and quality of water resources will have a severe impact on

ecosystems and human health, which will be further impacted by sea-
level rise that will extend areas of salinization of groundwater and
estuaries.

To ensure proper management of water resources, various strategies

should be adopted based on water availability and water demand
depending on the different needs at local, regional, and continental
levels.

Some of the strategies include water conservation, improved water

use efficiency by recycling water.