Chapter 5

Some Discrete Probability

Distribution
2
Binomial Distribution

 A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p

and a failure with probability q=1-p. Then the probability
distribution of the binomial random variable X, the
number of successes in n independent trials, is

 n  x n x
b( x; n, p )   p q , x 0,1,2,..., n
 x
Example 5.1

 The probability that a certain kind of component will

survive a shock test is ¾. Find the probability that exactly
2 of the next 4 components tested survive.
Example 5.2

 The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood

disease is 0.4. If 15 people are known to have contracted
this disease, what is the probability that (a) at least 10
survive, (b) from 3 to 8 survive, and (c) exactly 5 survive?
Example 5.3

 A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic

device from a manufacturer. The manufacture indicates
that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
 (a) The inspector of the retailer randomly picks 20 items from a
shipment. What is the probability that there will be at least one
defective item among the 20?
 (b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and
the inspector randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the
probability that there will be 3 shipments containing at least one
defective device?
Theorem 5.1

 The mean and variance of the binomial distribution

b(x;n,p) are

 np, and  npq 2

8
9
Example 5.4

 It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all

drinking wells in a certain rural community. In order to
gain some insight on this problem, it is determined that
some tests should be made. It is too expensive to test all of
the many wells in the area, so 10 were randomly selected
for testing.
 (a) Using the binomial distribution, what is the probability that
exactly three wells have the impurity assuming that the conjecture
is correct?
 What is the probability that more than three wells are impure?
Example 5.5

 Find the mean and variance of the binomial random

variable of Example 5.2, and then use Chebyshev’s
theorem (on page 132) to interpret the interval  2
Example 5.6

 Consider the situation of Example 5.8. The “30% are

impure” is merely a conjecture put forth by the area water
board. Suppose 10 wells are randomly selected and 6 are
found to contain the impurity. What does this imply about
the conjecture? Use a probability statement.
13
Multinomial Distribution

 If a given trial can result in the k outcomes E1, E2, … , Ek

with probabilities p1, p2,…,pk, then the probability
distribution of the random variables X1, X2, …, Xk,
representing the number of occurrences for E1, E2, … , Ek
in n independent trials is
 n  x1 x2
f ( x1 , x2 ,..., xk ; p1 , p2 ,..., pk , n)   p1 p2  pkxk ,
 x1 , x2 ,..., xk 

with
k k

x
i 1
i n, and p
i 1
i 1
Example 5.7

 The complexity of arrivals and departures into an airport are such that
computer simulation is often used to model the “ideal” conditions. For
a certain airport containing three runways it is known that in the ideal
setting the following are the probabilities that the individual runways
are accessed by a randomly arriving commercial jet:
Runway 1: p1 = 2/9
Runway 2: p2 = 1/6
Runway 3: p3 = 11/18
What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving airplanes are
distribution in the following fashion?
Runway 1: 2 airplanes,
Runway 2: 1 airplanes,
Runway 3: 3 airplanes
16
Example 5.8

 A particular part that is used as an injection device is sold

in lots of 10. The producer feels that the lot is deemed
acceptable if no more than one defective is in the lot. Some
lots are sampled and the sampling plan involves random
sampling and testing 3 of the parts out of 10. If none of the
3 is defective, the lot is accepted Comment on the utility of
this plan.
Hypergeometric Distribution

 The probability distribution of the hypergeometric random

variable X, the number of successes in a random sample of
size n selected from N items of which k are labeled
success and N-k labeled failure, is

 k  N  k 
   
 x  n  x 
h( x; N , n, k )  , max{0, n  ( N  k )}  x min{n, k}
 N
 
n
Example 5.9

 Lots of 40 components each are called unacceptable if they

contain as many as 3 defectives or more. The procedure
for sampling the lot is to select 5 components at random
and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the
probability that exactly 1 defective is found in the sample
if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?
Theorem 5.2

 The mean and variance of the hypergeometric distribution

h(x;N,n,k) are

nk N n k k
 , and  
2
n  (1  )
N N1 N N
Example 5.10

 Let us now reinvestigate Example 3.9. The purpose of this

example was to illustrate the notion of a random variable
and the corresponding sample space. In the example, we
have a lot of 100 items of which 12 are defective. What is
the probability that in a sample of 10, 3 are defective?
Example 5.11

 Find the mean and variance of the random variable of

Example 5.12 and then use Chebyshev’ theorem to
interpret the interval  2
23
Example 5.12

 A manufacturer of automobile tires reports that among a

shipment of 5000 sent to a local distributor, 1000 are
slightly blemished. If one purchases 10 of these tires at
random from the distributor, what is the probability that
exactly 3 are blemished?
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution

 If N items can be partitioned into the k cells A1, A2, …, Ak

with a1, a2, …, ak elements, respectively, then the
probability distribution of the random variables X1, X2, …
Xk, representing the number of elements selected from A1,
A2, …, Ak in a random sample of size n, is
 a1   a2   ak 
      
 x1   x2   xk 
f ( x1 , x2 ,...xk ; a1 , a2 ,...ak , N , n) 
N
 
n
k k
with  xi n and  ai  N .
i 1 i 1
Example 5.13

 A group of 10 individuals is used for a biological case

study. The group contains 3 people with blood type O, 4
with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is the
probability that a random sample of 5 will contain 1 person
with blood type O, 2 people with blood type A, and 2
people with blood type B?
27
Negative Binomial Distribution

 If repeated independent trials can result in a success with

probability p and a failure with probability q = 1- p, then
the probability distribution of the random variable X, the
number of the trial on which the kth success occurs, is

*  x  1 k x  k
b ( x; k , p )   p q , x k , k  1, k  2,...
 k  1
Example 5.14

 In a NBA (National Basketball Association) championship

series, the team who wins four games out of seven will be
the winner. Suppose that team A has probability 0.55 of
winning over team B and both teams A and B face each
other in the championship games.
(a) what is the probability that team A will win the series
in six games?
(b) what is the probability that team A will win the series?
(c) if both teams face each other in a regional playoff
series and the winner is decided by winning three out of
five games, what is the probability that team A will win a
playoff?
Geometric Distribution

 If repeated independent trials can result in a success with

probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 – p, then
the probability distribution of the random variable X, the
number of the trial on which the first success occurs, is

g ( x; p )  pq x  1
Example 5.15

 In a certain manufacturing process it is known that, on the

average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is the
probability that the fifth item inspected is the first
defective item found?
Example 5.16

 At “busy time” a telephone exchange is very near capacity,

so callers have difficulty placing their calls. It may be of
interest to know the number of attempts necessary in order
to gain a connection. Suppose that we let p = 0.05 be the
probability of a connection during busy time. We are
interested in knowing the probability that 5 attempts are
necessary for a successful call.
Theorem 5.3

 The mean and variance of a random variable following the

geometric distribution are

1 1 p
 ,   2 .
2

p p
34
Poisson Distribution

 The probability distribution of the Poisson random

variable X, representing the number of outcomes occurring
in a given time interval or specified region denoted by t, is

e  t ( t ) x
p ( x; t )  , x 0,1,2,...
x!
where λ is the average number of outcomes per unit time,
distance, area or volume, and e = 2.71828…
Example 5.17

 During a laboratory experiment the average number of

radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1
millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles
enter the counter in a given millisecond?
Example 5.18

 Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day

at a certain port city. The facilities at the port can handle at
most 15 tankers per day. What is the probability that on a
given day tankers have to be turned away?
Theorem 5.4

 Both the mean and variance of the Poisson distribution

p(x; λt) are λt.
Theorem 5.5

 Let X be a binomial random variable with probability

distribution b(x; n, p). When n  , p  0, and np  n 
remains constant,

n 
b( x; n, p )    p ( x;  ).
40
41
Example 5.19

 In a certain industrial facility accidents occur infrequently.

It is known that the probability of an accident on any given
day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
(a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400
days there will be an accident on one day?
(b) What is the probability that there are at most three days
with an accident?
Example 5.20

 In a manufacturing process where glass products are

produced, defects or bubbles occur, occasionally rendering
the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on
average, 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one
or more bubbles. What is the probability that a random
sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items possessing
bubbles?