IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jpenef/v8y2009i02p153-187_00.html

On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds

Author

Listed:
  • ROBALINO, DAVID A.
  • BODOR, ANDRÁS

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider the idea of an earnings-related pension system with reserves invested in indexed government bonds as a mechanism to both ensure financial sustainability and improve security. The paper starts by reviewing the characterization of the sustainable rate of return of an earnings-related pension system with pay-as-you-go financing. We show that current proxies for the sustainable rate, including the Swedish ‘gyroscope’, are not stable and propose an alternative measure that depends on the growth of the buffer-stock and the pay-as-you-go asset. Using a simple one-sector macroeconomic model that embeds a notional account pension system we then show how GDP-indexed government bonds, if combined with the right measure for the sustainable rate of return on contributions, could be used to generate a sustainable and secure earnings-related pension system, without becoming a fiscal burden. The proposal is particularly attractive for countries considering reforms to earnings-related systems that have accumulated a large implicit pension debt. In this case, the government bonds allow the financing of this debt in a transparent way. The proposed mechanism can also facilitate the transition to a fully funded pension system when the government bonds are allowed to be traded.

Suggested Citation

  • Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 153-187, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:8:y:2009:i:02:p:153-187_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1474747207003186/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    2. Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2014. "The automatic adjustment of pension expenditures in Spain:an evaluation of the 2013 pension reform," Working Papers 1420, Banco de España.
    3. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01966571 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wang, Lijian, 2016. "Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-227.
    5. Holzmann,Robert, 2019. "The ABCs of NDCs," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 136555, The World Bank.
    6. Eduardo Fajnzylber & David Robalino, 2010. "Assessing Fiscal Costs and the Distribution of Pensions in Transitions to FDC and NDC Systems: A Retrospective Analysis for Chile," Working Papers wp_005, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    7. Holzmann, Robert & Koettl, Johannes, 2011. "Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, Issues," IZA Discussion Papers 5715, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Róbert I Gál & Vera Gergely & Márton Medgyesi, 2011. "National Transfer Accounts in Hungary: contribution asset and returns in a pay-as-you-go pension," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 32, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816, June.
    10. Boado-Penas, M. Carmen & Eisenberg, Julia & Korn, Ralf, 2021. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 140-152.
    11. Robalino, David & Vodopivec, Milan & Bodor, Andras, 2009. "Savings for unemployment in good or bad times : options for developing countries," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 50320, The World Bank.
    12. Palmer, Edward, 2011. "Generic NDC - Equilibrium, Valuation and Risk Sharing with and without NDC Bonds," Working Paper Series 2011:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    13. M. Carmen Boado-Penas & Julia Eisenberg & Ralf Korn, 2019. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Papers 1912.12329, arXiv.org.
    14. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension financing in China: Is there a looming crisis?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 143-154.
    15. Carlo Mazzaferro, 2018. "Is the Italian NDC pension system really sustainable?Parameters’ design and consistency," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0164, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. Robert Holzmann & Johannes Koettl, 2015. "Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, and Issues," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 61(2), pages 377-415.
    17. Riccardo Magnani, 2018. "What's gone wrong in the design of PAYG systems?," CEPN Working Papers 2018-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    18. Holzmann, Robert & Jousten, Alain, 2010. "Addressing the Legacy Costs in an NDC Reform: Conceptualization, Measurement, Financing," IZA Discussion Papers 5296, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:8:y:2009:i:02:p:153-187_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/pef .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.