IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-33473-9.html

Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks

Author

Listed:
  • Sha Zhou

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • A. Park Williams

    (University of California)

  • Benjamin R. Lintner

    (The State University of New Jersey)

  • Kirsten L. Findell

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Trevor F. Keenan

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Yao Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Pierre Gentine

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Kirsten L. Findell & Trevor F. Keenan & Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine, 2022. "Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33473-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33473-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 38-44, January.
    2. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Alexis M. Berg & Yao Zhang & Trevor F. Keenan & Benjamin I. Cook & Stefan Hagemann & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Pierre Gentine, 2021. "Publisher Correction: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 274-274, March.
    3. A. L. Burrell & J. P. Evans & M. G. De Kauwe, 2020. "Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    5. Goutam Konapala & Ashok K. Mishra & Yoshihide Wada & Michael E. Mann, 2020. "Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fengyun Sun & Alfonso Mejia & Sanjib Sharma & Peng Zeng & Yi’na Hu & Kai Yang & Yue Che, 2025. "Complex networks reveal teleconnections across cascading floods in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(17), pages 20319-20341, October.
    2. Liang Qiao & Zhiyan Zuo & Renhe Zhang & Shilong Piao & Dong Xiao & Kaiwen Zhang, 2023. "Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aoyun Xue & Xin Geng & Fei-Fei Jin & Yechul Shin & Mi-Kyung Sung & Jong-Seong Kug, 2025. "Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Dong, Leilei & Wang, Weizhen & Che, Tao & Wang, Yuhao & Huang, Xin & Zhang, Shengyin & Xu, Feinan & Feng, Jiaojiao, 2025. "Simultaneous retrieval of soil moisture and salinity in arid and semiarid regions using Sentinel-1 data and a revised dielectric model for salty soil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    3. Li, Shenglin & Han, Yang & Li, Caixia & Wang, Jinglei, 2024. "A novel framework for multi-layer soil moisture estimation with high spatio-temporal resolution based on data fusion and automated machine learning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    4. Yule Sun & Dongliang Zhang & Ze Miao & Shaodong Yang & Quanming Liu & Zhongyi Qu, 2025. "Season-Specific CNN and TVDI Approach for Soil Moisture and Irrigation Monitoring in the Hetao Irrigation District, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-35, September.
    5. Gabriele Vissio & Marco Turco & Antonello Provenzale, 2023. "Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1125-1137, March.
    6. Sijia Wu & Ming Luo & Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau & Wei Zhang & Lin Wang & Zhen Liu & Lijie Lin & Yijing Wang & Erjia Ge & Jianfeng Li & Yuanchao Fan & Yimin Chen & Weilin Liao & Xiaoyu Wang & Xiaocong Xu, 2025. "Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Hsin Hsu & Paul A. Dirmeyer, 2023. "Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Zhenyi Yuan & Nan Wei, 2022. "Coupling a New Version of the Common Land Model (CoLM) to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES): Implementation, Experiment, and Preliminary Evaluation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, May.
    9. Hao Tang & Qiao Li & Hongfei Tao & Pingan Jiang & Congcang Tang & Xiangzhi Kong, 2025. "Analyzing the Driving Mechanism of Drought Using the Ecological Aridity Index Considering the Evapotranspiration Deficit—A Case Study in Xinjiang, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, September.
    10. Melo, Leonardo Leite de & Melo, Verônica Gaspar Martins Leite de & Marques, Patrícia Angélica Alves & Frizzone, Jose Antônio & Coelho, Rubens Duarte & Romero, Roseli Aparecida Francelin & Barros, Timó, 2022. "Deep learning for identification of water deficits in sugarcane based on thermal images," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    11. Jing Sun & Kun Yang & Xiaogang He & Guiling Wang & Yong Wang & Yan Yu & Hui Lu, 2025. "Causal pathways underlying global soil moisture–precipitation coupling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Orpita U. Laz & Ataur Rahman & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2023. "Compound heatwave and drought hotspots and their trends in Southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 357-386, October.
    13. Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva & Edson Eyji Sano & Taya Cristo Parreiras & Édson Luis Bolfe & Mário Marcos Espírito-Santo & Roberto Filgueiras & Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza & Claudionor Ribeiro, 2024. "Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Xu Zhang & Jinbao Li & Shang-Ping Xie & Fei Liu & Feng Shi & Cong Gao & Han Zhang & Qianjin Dong, 2025. "Volcanic eruptions disrupt ENSO teleconnections with land summer temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Muhammad Amin & Mobushir Riaz Khan & Sher Shah Hassan & Muhammad Imran & Muhammad Hanif & Irfan Ahmad Baig, 2023. "Determining satellite-based evapotranspiration product and identifying relationship with other observed data in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 23-39, January.
    18. Evelyn E. Esosuakpo, 2025. "Climate Change and Economic Instability in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(1), pages 4690-4702, January.
    19. Wang, Han & Xiang, Youzhen & Liao, Zhenqi & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Xueyan & Huang, Xiangyang & Zhang, Fucang & Feng, Li, 2024. "Integrated assessment of water-nitrogen management for winter oilseed rape production in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33473-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.