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© Institute of Environmental Science & Meteorology,

College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman

Fig. 1. Winter, spring, summer or fall…The seasons in each

country mainly depends on how close it is located to the
equator or to the poles. Photos by CLRingor

Module 7
University of the Philippines Diliman

Weather &
Climate
Learning Outcomes

! Describe the basic composition & structure

of the atmosphere

! Discuss the key atmospheric processes

!
Discus how oceanic, terrestrial, &
atmospheric processes affect weather &
climate

! Explain the Earth’s energy budget & the

greenhouse effect

! Explain climate change & their causes &

effects

The main difference

between weather &
climate is….

…a matter of time. Weather is the state of the

atmosphere at a given point in time (minutes, hours,
days, weeks, a few months) & geographic location
(NOAA, WMO). Examples of severe weather events are
tropical storms/cyclones, tornadoes, lightning strikes
(Fig. 2) & extremes of heat or cold. Climate, in contrast,
measures the state of the atmosphere over a period that
ranges from months to thousands or millions of years.
The classical period is 30 years (WMO).

Fig. 2. Lightning in an open field. Photo by Amri Photo/Getty Images.

4
 Climate Variability &
Climate Change
In essence, climate variability looks at changes that occur
within smaller timeframes, such as a month, a season or a year,
& climate change considers changes that occur over a longer
period of time, typically over decades or longer, i.e. at least 30
years (WMO, Fig. 3). Both climate variability & climate change
are may be due to natural or anthropogenic factors.

A key difference between climate variability & change is in

persistence of "anomalous” conditions - when events that used
to be rare occur more frequently, or vice-versa (WMO). Different
regios of the world experience different variability, Fig. 3. The difference between weather, climate variability, & climate change (WMO,
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science & Adaptation Planning Program). We will
climatologically speaking. In some parts of the world, or in any discuss more about the MJO, ENSO, & PDO in the next sections.
region for certain time periods or parts of the year, there is not
much difference in the conditions within that time period (weak
variability). In other places or time periods, the conditions can Climatologists use reference points to compare current
swing across a large range, from freezing to very warm, or from climatological trends to that of the past or what is considered
very wet to very dry (strong variability). Any single event, such “normal”. These reference points are called climate normals.
as a severe tropical cyclone, cannot be attributed to human- They are measured as the arithmetic average of a climate
induced climate change. Even an exceptional season of tropical element (e.g. temperature ) over a 30-year period. This period is
cyclone can only be a part of climate variability. If such a season used because it is long enough to filter out any interannual
does not recur within the next 30 years, we would look back & variation or anomalies but short enough to show longer climatic
call it an exceptional year, but not a harbinger of change. Only a trends (WMO).
persistent series of unusual events taken in the context of
regional climate parameters can suggest a potential change in
climate has occurred.

Atmospheric pressure (millibars)

0 200 400 600 800 1000
120

tur
e Earth’s atmospheric
Pressure

110 a
er
100 Temp layers
Thermosphere
90 The Earth’s atmosphere consists of several layers based
on temperature (Fig. 4). The troposphere, also called the
Mesopause
weather breeder, extends from 0-17 km at the equator but
80 is thinner (8 km) over the poles. It contains 75 – 80% of
Altitude (km)

the gases in the atmosphere. This thin & turbulent layer of

70 Mesosphere rising & falling air currents & winds is largely responsible for
the planet’s weather & climate. Most clouds appear here,
60 mainly because 99% of the water vapor in the atmosphere
is found in the troposphere. The temperature usually
Stratopause declines with increasing altitude in the troposphere
50 because it is mostly heated by the radiation from the
Stratosphere Earth’s surface.
40
The second layer, stratosphere, is considered as the
Tropopause Earth’s global sunscreen. It extends from 17-48 km above
30
the Earth’s surface. Unlike the troposphere, the
Ozone "layer" stratosphere actually gets warmer with higher altitude,
20 which means that air in the stratosphere lacks the
turbulence & updrafts of the troposphere beneath.
10
Troposphere Commercial passenger jets fly in the lower stratosphere,
partly because this less-turbulent layer provides a
smoother ride. Although the stratosphere contains less
0 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 matter than the troposphere, its composition is similar
except that: its volume of water vapor is about 1/1,000 as
Temperature (ºC)
much & its concentration of ozone (O3) is much higher.
Fig. 4. Layers of the atmosphere (modified from Miller, 2005). Weather occurs in the
troposphere while the ozone in the stratosphere filters out most of the sun’s UV
radiation harmful to us & most other species.
6
Above the stratosphere is the mesosphere. It extends 48-80
km above the Earth’s surface. Temperature decreases with
height throughout the mesosphere. The coldest temperatures
in the Earth's atmosphere are found near the top of this layer.
The mesosphere has extremely low air pressure & density, as
well as oxygen. Most meteors vaporize in the mesosphere.
Some material from meteors lingers in the mesosphere,
causing this layer to have a relatively high concentration of iron
& other metal atoms. The mesosphere is difficult to study, so
less is known about this layer of the atmosphere than other
layers (UCAR).

The thermosphere is directly above the mesosphere. It

extends 90 km to between 500-1,000 km above our planet.
Temperatures in this layer can change by hundreds of degrees
depending on the amount of solar activity. Although the
thermosphere is considered part of Earth's atmosphere, the
air density is so low in this layer that most of the thermosphere
is what we normally think of as outer space. Many satellites
orbit within this layer. Much of the X-ray & UV radiation from
the Sun is absorbed in the thermosphere. When the Sun is
very active & emitting more high energy radiation, the
thermosphere gets hotter & expands. That is why the extent
of the thermosphere varies considerably. In addition, the
aurora (the Southern & Northern Lights) primarily occur in the
thermosphere. Charged particles (electrons, protons, & other
ions) from space collide with atoms & molecules in the
thermosphere at high latitudes, exciting them into higher
energy states. This high energy is emitted through photons of
light, which we see as colorful auroral displays (UCAR).
Fig. 5. Aurora borealis (Northern Lights) taken on 2 Sep 2013 at Andoya Island,
Norway. The aurora (the Southern & Northern Lights) primarily occur in the

☀
thermosphere. Photo by Frank Olsen/Wikimedia Commons.
7

A B

Atmospheric
Processes
Two important qualities of the
atmosphere are pressure &
temperature. Pressure is force per unit
area. Atmospheric pressure is caused
by the weight of overlying atmospheric
gases on those below & therefore
decreases with altitude. We are familiar
Fig. 6. The difference between high (A) & low (B) pressure systems. In a low pressure system air is dragged inwards
with low- & high-pressure systems in the
& pulled upwards. As the warm humid air spirals upwards, it cools & clouds form. In a high pressure system, dense
atmosphere. When the air pressure is air is forced downwards & spreads out over the Earth’s surface. Adapted from [Link].
low, air tends to rise, cooling as it rises
& condensing its water vapor; it is
temperature, air pressure, & availability pressure & a cloudy & rainy climate (cell
therefore characterized by clouds &
of water vapor from the surface. 1 Fig. 7). This air then moves to higher
precipitation (Fig. 6A). When air pressure
latitudes (toward the poles). Because it
is high, it is moving downward, which
The atmosphere moves because of the is cooler at higher elevations & because
warms the air, changing the condensed
Earth’s rotation & differential heating of sunlight is less intense at the higher
water drops in clouds to vapor;
Earth’s surface & atmosphere. These latitudes, by the time the air reaches
therefore high-pressure systems are
produce global patterns that include about 30 latitude, it has cooled enough
clear & sunny (Fig. 6B).
prevailing winds & latitudinal belts of low to become heavier. Then it descends,
& high air pressure from the equator to creating a region of high pressure, with
Temperature is a measure of thermal
the poles. Three cells of atmospheric its characteristic sunny skies & low
energy, which is the kinetic energy—the
circulation (Hadley cells) are present in rainfall, forming a latitude belt where
motion of atoms & molecules in a
each hemisphere (Fig. 7). In general, many of the world’s deserts are found.
substance. Water vapor content is
belts of low air pressure develop at the Then the air that descended at 30
another important characteristic of the
equator where the air is warmed most of latitude moves poleward along the
lower atmosphere. It varies from >1-4%
the time during the day by the sun. The surface warms & rises again, creating
by volume, depending on air
heated air rises, creating an area of low another region of generally low pressure

8
 weatherman gives to us in units that are the height to of atmospheric circulation (Hadley cells) are present in

Polar high pressure

3
High pressure
Easterlies

around 50 to 60 (cell 2, Fig. 7) latitude & 60°

Pressure
Low
once again becoming a region of clouds Westerlies
2
& precipitation. Atmospheric orientation
High Horse latitudes
in cell 3 (Fig. 7) moves air toward the 30°
Pressure
poles at higher elevation & toward the Trade winds
equator along the surface. Sinking cool 1
Three-cell
air at the poles produces the polar high- 0° Low Doldrums Pressure model of
pressure zones at both poles. At the 1 circulation
most basic level, warm air rises at the Trade winds

equator moves toward the poles where High Horse latitudes Pressure
30°
it sinks after going through cell 2 &
return flow is along the surface of Earth Westerlies 2

toward the equator. The exact locations Low Pressure

60°
of high & low pressure areas vary with
the season, as the sun’s position moves Easterlies
High pressure
north & south relative to the Earth’s
surface (Botkin & Keller, 2011). 3
Polar high pressure
The latitudinal belts (cells) just described
FI GU R E 20. 7 Generalized circulation of the atmosphere. The heating of the surface of the Earth is uneven,
have names, most of which came about Fig. 7. The Earth’spressure
producing general atmospheric circulation.
differences (warm Thedense
air is less heatingthanofcooler
the surface of the
air). There is Earth
rising is uneven,
warm air atproducing
the equator
during the days of sailing ships. Such pressureanddifferences (warm
sinking cool airthe
air at is less dense
poles. With than cooler
rotation air). With
of Earth threeEarth’s
cells ofrotation, three
circulating cells
air are of circulating
formed air are
in each hemi-
names include the “doldrums,” regions formed sphere
in each(called
hemisphere
Hadleycalled Hadley
Cells after Cells. Hadley
George Adapted from
who firstBotkin & Keller
proposed (2011).
a model of atmospheric circulation in
1735). (Source: Samuel J. Williamson, Fundamentals of Air Pollution, Figure 5.5 [Reading, MS: Addison-Wesley,
at the equator with little air movement; 1973]. Reprinted with permission of Addison-Wesley.)
“trade winds,” northeast & southeast According to legend, the term “horse resupply due to lack of wind, crews
winds important when clipper ships latitudes” comes from ships sailing to often ran out of drinking water. To
moved the world’s goods; & “horse the New World that would often conserve scarce water, sailors on these
latitudes,” two belts centered about 30° become stalled for days or even weeks ships would sometimes throw the
north & south of the equator with when they encountered areas of high horses they were transporting
descending air & high pressure (Botkin & pressure & calm winds. Many of these overboard. Thus, the phrase 'horse
Keller, 2011) ships carried horses to the Americas as latitudes' was born (NOAA).
part of their cargo. Unable to sail &

Thunderstorms & forms a cloud. The cloud eventually grows upward into areas
where the temperature is below freezing.

A thunderstorm is a rain shower during which you hear thunder. As a storm rises into freezing air, different types of ice particles
Since thunder comes from lightning, all thunderstorms have can be created from freezing liquid drops. The ice particles can
lightning. Worldwide, there are an estimated 16 M grow by condensing vapor (like frost) & by collecting smaller
thunderstorms each year, & at any given moment, there are liquid drops that have not frozen yet (a state called
roughly 2,000 thunderstorms in progress (NOAA). "supercooled"). When two ice particles collide, they usually
bounce off each other, but one particle can rip off a little bit of
Many hazardous weather events are associated with ice from the other one & grab some electric charge. Lots of
thunderstorms. Under the right conditions, rainfall from these collisions build up big regions of electric charges to cause
thunderstorms causes flash flooding, killing more people each a bolt of lightning, which creates the sound waves we hear as
year than typhoons, tornadoes or lightning. Lightning is thunder.
responsible for many fires around the world each year, &
causes fatalities. Hail up to the size of softballs damages cars &
windows, & kills livestock caught out in the open. Strong winds
associated with thunderstorms knock down trees, power lines
& some homes (NOAA).

Three basic ingredients are required for a thunderstorm to form:

moisture, rising unstable air (air that keeps rising when given a
nudge), & a lifting mechanism to provide the “nudge.” The sun
heats the surface of the earth, which warms the air above it. If
this warm surface air is forced to rise—hills or mountains, or
areas where warm/cold or wet/dry air bump together can
cause rising motion—it will continue to rise as long as it weighs
less & stays warmer than the air around it.

As the air rises, it transfers heat from the surface of the earth to
the upper levels of the atmosphere (convection). The water
vapor it contains begins to cool, releases the heat, condenses Fig. 8. Thunderstorm at Port La Nouvelle, southern France. Photo by Maxime
Raynal/Wikimedia Commons.

10
 A B C

Fig. 9. The three stages of thunderstorm formation. This can last between 30 min to an hour. Adapted from NOAA National Weather Service /Wikimedia Commons

Thunderstorms have three stages in lightning. The thunderstorm enters the rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, &
their life cycle: developing, mature & mature stage (Fig. 9B) when the updraft tornadoes. Eventually, a large amount of
dissipating. The developing stage (Fig. continues to feed the storm, but precipitation is produced & the updraft
9A) is marked by a cumulus cloud that precipitation begins to fall out of the is overcome by the downdraft beginning
is being pushed upward by a rising storm, creating a downdraft (a column the dissipating stage (Fig. 9C). At the
column of air (updraft). The cumulus of air pushing downward). When the ground, the gust front moves out a long
cloud soon looks like a tower (called downdraft & rain-cooled air spreads out distance from the storm & cuts off the
towering cumulus) as the updraft along the ground it forms a gust front, or warm moist air that was feeding the
continues to develop. There is little to no a line of gusty winds. The mature stage thunderstorm. Rainfall decreases in
rain during this stage but occasional is the most likely time for hail, heavy intensity, but lightning remains a danger.

11

Tropical Cyclones
A tropical cyclone is a rapid rotating storm originating over
tropical to sub-tropical oceans from where it draws the
energy to develop. It has a low pressure centre &
clouds spiraling towards the eyewall surrounding the "eye",
the central part of the system where the weather is normally
calm & free of clouds (Fig. 10A). Its diameter is typically
200-500 km, but can reach 1000 km. A tropical cyclone
brings very violent winds, torrential rain, high waves &, in
some cases, very destructive storm surges & coastal flooding.
The winds blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere
(Fig. 10A) & clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere due to the B
Coriolis effect. Tropical cyclones above a certain strength are
given names in the interests of public safety (WMO).

Tropical cyclones with max sustained surface winds (1 min, 10

m) of ≤ 63 km/h are called ”tropical depressions” while those
with 64-118 km/h are called "tropical storms" & assigned a
name. Those with >118 km/h sustained winds have different
names depending on the location (Fig. 10B). In the Caribbean
Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the North Atlantic Ocean & the
eastern & central North Pacific Ocean, it is called “hurricane”.
In the western North Pacific, it is called “typhoon”. In the Bay
of Bengal and Arabian Sea, it is called “cyclone”. In western
South Pacific & southeast Indian Ocean, it is called “severe Fig. 10. A. Satellite image of super typhoon Yolanda (international name Haiyan), south of
tropical cyclone”. In the southwest Indian Ocean, it is called Tacloban, Leyte, dated 7 Nov 2013. Note the counterclockwise rotation of the typhoon. B.
“tropical cyclone” (WMO). Names given to severe tropical cyclones in the different basins of the world. Images from
NOAA.

12
 4

Rising winds exit

from the storm at
high altitudes.
This is a recipe for a tropical cyclone
formation (NOAA):
The calm central
eye usually is about 3
A pre-existing weather disturbance: A 24 kilometers
(15 miles) wide.
tropical cyclone often starts out as a Gales circle the eye at speeds 2
tropical wave - a low pressure area of up to 320 kilometers
(200 miles) per hour
that moves through the moisture-rich
tropics, possibly enhancing shower &
thunderstorm activity.

Warm water: Water at

least 26.5°C over a depth of 50 1

m powers the storm. Moist surface winds

spiral in toward the
center of the storm.

Fig.11. Formation of a tropical cyclone. Adapted from Miller (2005).

Thunderstorm activity: Thunderstorms
turn ocean heat into hurricane fuel. Figure 3 Formation of a tropical cyclone. Those forming in the Atlantic Ocean usually are called hurricanes; those
forming in the Pacific Ocean usually are called typhoons.
happens in many other warm, tropical from above flows down into the eye
Low wind shear: A large difference in areas of the world but only under (Fig. 11)
wind speed & direction around or near certain
rologistscircumstances. For onemarshes
can track their paths and wind to normally are closed off from fresh- This flushing out of the bays and

the storm can weaken it. form, there needs to be warm ocean
speeds and warn people in areas likely to be
hit by these violent storms.
water and saltwater inflows. In August
Storms
1999, Hurricane Brett struck this
marshes reduced brown tides consisting
coastal weaken when
of explosive growths they move
of algae over
feeding on
water & moist,
Hurricanes humid
and typhoons airandin the area.
can kill
injure people and damage property and
region. areas with cooler
According to marine biologists, it
flushed out excess nutrients from land
ocean water. There is
excess nutrients. It also increased growth
of sea grasses, which serve as nurseries for
When humid
agricultural air is
production. flowing
Sometimes, how-upward at swept
runoff and a dead sea grassesnot andnearly asshrimp,
much crabs, energy
and fish and in thefood
provide water
Coriolis effect: Near the equator, where ever, the long-term ecological and economic rotting vegetation from the coastal bays for millions of ducks wintering in Texas
zone of oflow pressure overitswarm andocean to12fuel the storm. Nor ofiscommercially
there as much
there is no Coriolis effect, tropical benefits a tropical cyclone can exceed
short-term harmful effects.
marshes. It also carved out channels
through the barrier islands along the coast,
bays. Production impor-
tant species of shellfish and fish also
water, Forthe water
in partsis released from thehuge quantities of fresh
humidity
seawater in the air. Tropical cyclones
cyclones cannot form within 500 km of example, of Texas along allowing increased.
air, the
creating the clouds of the storm.
Gulf of Mexico, coastal bays and to flood the bays and marshes.
also usually weaken when they hit
the equator.
As it rises, the air in a tropical cyclone land, because they are no longer being
rotates because of Coriolis effect. As "fed" by the energy from the warm
Mix it all together, & you may have a
the storm system rotates faster & ocean waters. However, they often
tropical cyclone. Even when all these
faster, an eye forms in the center. It is move far inland, dumping many inches
factors come together, a tropical
very calm & clear in the eye, with very of rain & causing lots of wind damage
cyclone does not always develop. This
low air pressure. Higher pressure air before they die out completely (UCAR).

13
SCIENCE SUPPLEMENT 6 S21

4. North Indian 3. Northwest Pacific 2. Northeast 1. Atlantic

Basin Basin Pacific Basin Basin

5. Southwest Indian Basin 5. Southeast Indian/ 5. Australian/Southwest

Australian Basin Pacific Basin
Fig. 12. The average number of tropical cyclones per year in the different basins of the world & the percentage of total global average. RSMC stands for Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centers of the World Meteorological Office (WMO) for tropical cyclones. Adapted from [Link]

Most of the world’s tropical cyclones form over the northwest also has the most intense storms such as categories 4 & 5 of
Pacific basin where the Philippines is located (Fig. 12). An the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale (Fig. 13). As
average of 30 tropical cyclones occur in the area per year, mentioned, the absence of tropical cyclones at & very near the
which is about 38% of the total global average. Aside from equator reveals an important factor in their development: the
having the highest storm frequency, the northwest Pacific basin Coriolis force. The Coriolis force results from the Earth’s

14
 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale

Fig. 13. Tracks & intensity of all tropical storms within 150 years (from 1856 to Sep 2006). Adapted from Robert A. Rohde [Link]

spherical shape & its rotation. The force keeps air from moving equator. Although frequent thunderstorms do occur at the
in a straight line across the surface of the Earth. Instead, the equator, the air rushing into the low-pressure centers of these
Coriolis force spins moving air to the right in the Northern storms does not get the needed “spin” from the Coriolis force,
Hemisphere & to the left in the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 14). & so the storms do not develop the large-scale rotation that
The Coriolis force is strongest near the poles, & zero at the sets them on the path to becoming tropical cyclones.

15

waters from reaching tropical cyclone-friendly temperatures. A

similar cold current, the Benguela Current, flows up the
western coast of South Africa, past Namibia & Angola,
keeping those waters too cool for hurricanes as well (Fig. 15).
The South Atlantic off the east coast of Brazil is not favorable
for tropical cyclones for a variety of reasons, including
prevalent wind shear (variation of wind speed or direction at
different altitudes). In 2004, a rare—perhaps unique—tropical
cyclone formed in this region, eventually making landfall in
Brazil; the track of this storm, Hurricane Catarina, stands
alone in the South Atlantic (NASA).

The map also reveals the general atmospheric “steering”

influences on hurricanes. In the tropics, the storms move with
the prevailing easterly winds that occur in both hemispheres.
Farther from the equator, in the mid-latitudes, westerly winds
are more common. Storms that have survived to these
latitudes often swing back to the east before falling apart
(NASA).

Another important factor is the sea surface temperature (Fig.

16). The northwest Pacific basin has the warmest ocean
Fig. 14. Coriolis effect is the shifting of winds & surface currents from their waters in all the basins throughout the year, favorable for the
expacted paths caused by the Earth’s rotation. formation of tropical cyclones.

If you want to download historical tropical cyclone tracks you

Another obvious feature is the lack of tropical cyclones in may go to this site [Link]
Southwest Pacific & South Atlantic oceans. To the west of #map=4/32/-80
South America, the Peru Current snakes northward along the
coast of Chile, Peru, & Ecuador, bringing cool water from
southern polar regions (Fig. 15). The cool current keeps

16
 Fig. 15. The Earth’s surface currents also affect the formation of tropical cyclones. The Peru current that flows along the western coast of South America brings
cooler waters from Antarctica, as is the Benguela Current in western south Africa. These prevent the water from reaching warm temperature needed for tropical
cyclone development. Adapted from Pearson Education, Inc. (2013).

17

°C

Fig. 16. Annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) between 1971-2000. Water waters, at least 26.5°C over a depth of 50 m, powers the storm. Also note the
high SST in the western Pacific basin. This region is called the Western Pacific Warm Pool (mean SST >28°C). Warming oceans cause sea level rise since water
expands as it warms. Adapted from NOAA.

18
Monsoons
Monsoons produce the very wet
summers & dry winters that occur on
nearly all of the tropical continents. A
monsoon is not a storm like a typhoon
or a summer thunderstorm, but a
much larger pattern of winds & rain
that spans a large geographic area – a
continent or even the entire globe. The
seasonal cycle over tropical continents Fig. 17. Approximate domain of the global monsoon precipitation. The regional monsoons are the North American monsoon
is marked by an oscillation between (NAM), North African monsoon (NAF), Indian monsoon (IND), East Asian monsoon (EAS), Western North Pacific monsoon
(WNP), South American monsoon (SAM), South African monsoon (SAF), & the Australian monsoon (AUS). Adapted from Bin
dry & wet periods brought about by
Wang/World Climate Research Program.
monsoons. Weather events in the
tropics – such as typhoons, which swings north & south in a moves through the tropical
thunderstorms, & other rainstorms – seasonal cycle, causing patterns of atmosphere, which changes
are actually embedded within the distinctly wet & dry seasons. However, dramatically at the beginning & end of
much larger monsoons. The summer monsoons are not the same every summer. Recall the Hadley
monsoon is what people often think of throughout the tropics, because the circulation in Fig. 7. The area near the
as monsoon conditions: large amounts specific locations of continents & equator with low pressure &
of rain. But the winter monsoon, where oceans influence the regional patterns converging, rising winds is the ITCZ.
dry conditions prevail, is also part of of winds & rain. Classic conditions for Water vapor condenses as air rises &
the pattern (UCAR). strong monsoons are found where the cools in the ITCZ, forming clouds &
Indian Ocean & the Pacific Ocean falling as rain. The ITCZ can be seen
Monsoons are found in the tropics (Fig. meet. This region includes India & from space as a band of clouds
17). That is where rain is produced as South Asia, & Australia (UCAR). around the planet (Fig. 18). This is
warm & humid air rises in the where monsoon rainfall occurs
Intertropical Convergence Zone Monsoon rains are controlled by the (UCAR).
(ITCZ), also called the doldrums, wind &, in general, by the way air

19

During June & July, the northern hemisphere is heated more

strongly by the sun than the southern hemisphere. So, the
ITCZ & its rising hot air lie a little north of the equator. Winds
blow from the southern hemisphere across the equator to
reach the ITCZ in the northern hemisphere.

During December & January, the southern hemisphere is

heated more strongly by the sun. This means that the hottest
air – the air that rises in the ITCZ – is found a little south of the
equator. Then, winds from the Northern Hemisphere blow
across the equator towards the ITCZ in the southern
hemisphere. As the ITCZ changes location through the year,
the winds & rains & the location of monsoon wet weather
changes, too.

Fig. 18. A double ITCZ across the Pacific Ocean. Image from NOAA GOES-17
satellite taken on 10 March 2018 with NASA’s Earth Polychromatic Imaging
Camera (EPIC) Team.

The domain of the ITCZ is not static since the Hadley

circulation does not stay in the same place year-round, but
varies with the seasons. This is the key to understanding why
many tropical regions around the world have patterns of wet
monsoon summers & dry winters. The seasonal changes in
Fig. 19. The ITCZ shifts location depending on the season. During the northern
the Hadley circulation create the world’s monsoons. hemisphere (NH) summer in June & July, the ITCZ is a little north of the equator
(orange line). During the southern hemisphere (SH) summer in December & January,
it is a little south of the equator (yellow line). Figure from [Link].
20
 A

El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), refers to cyclical
environmental conditions that occur across the Equatorial B
Pacific Ocean. These changes are due to natural interactions
between the ocean & atmosphere. Sea surface temperature
(Fig. 16), rainfall, air pressure, atmospheric (Fig. 7) & ocean
(Fig. 15) circulation all influence each other. El Niño & La
Niña are opposite extremes of the ENSO (NOAA). They are
naturally occurring climate patterns & humans have no direct
ability to influence their onset, intensity, or duration (NOAA/
[Link]).

An El Niño (Fig. 20A) condition occurs when surface water in

the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average & east
winds (easterlies) blow weaker than normal. The opposite
condition is called La Niña (Fig. 20B), when the water is cooler Fig. 20. A. Global map of sea surface temperature (SST) showing higher (red) or
than normal & the east winds are stronger. While their lower (blue) than normal SST in 2016. This is one of the strongest El Niños on
frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño & La Niña events record. The large red “tongue” that extends west from South America is part of the
occur on average every 2—7 years. Typically, El Niño occurs characteristic pattern of warming associated with El Niño. B. Global map of SST
anomaly depicting La Niña, the reverse of El Niño —cooling in the same region. As
more frequently, every 3-5 years, than La Niña. El Niño is often seen on the map, there is a large blue area (cooler than normal temperatures) from
(but not always) followed by La Niña the following year, South America westward. Adapted from NOAA National Environmental Satellite,
particularly if the El Niño is strong. El Niño typically lasts 9–12 Data, & Information Service (NESDIS).
months, & La Niña lasts about 1–3 years. Both tend to
Although the exact initiating causes of an ENSO warm or cool
develop during March–June & reach peak intensity during
event are not fully understood, the two components of ENSO
December–April (NOAA).

21

– sea surface temperature & atmospheric pressure are

strongly related. During an El Niño event (Fig. 21), the easterly
trade winds converging across the equatorial Pacific weaken.
This in turn slows the ocean current that draws water away
from the western coast of South America. When this happens,
it reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient–rich water from the
deeper ocean. As a result, it flattens out the thermocline &
allows warm surface water to build in the eastern part of the
basin (NOAA/NCEI/NCDC). La Niña is similar to normal
patterns, except that circulation is increased & convection is
enhanced over Indonesia. This means increased upwelling off
South America & the prevailing rain pattern also shifts farther
west than normal.

The strengthening & weakening of the trade winds is a

function of changes in the pressure gradient of the
atmosphere over the tropical Pacific. Ironically, the warming of
the sea surface works to decrease the atmospheric pressure
above it by transfering more heat to the atmosphere & making
it more buoyant. So, in summary, the pressure gradient
affects the sea surface temperatures, & the sea surface
temperatures affect the pressure gradient (NOAA/NCEI/
NCDC).

ENSO modulates tropical cyclones. Similarly, tropical cyclone

activity in the southeastern western North Pacific can affect
the ENSO three months later (Wang et al. 2019). Increased TC
activity in July–September can significantly contribute to the
intensity of ENSO in October–December. The greater the
accumulated cyclone energy, the stronger the El Niño & the
Fig. 21. Normal & El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Adapted from NOAA
weaker the La Niña. National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).

22
 A B

Fig. 22. Global patterns of precipitation & temperature during El Niño (A) & La Niña (B) during winter (Dec-Feb) & summer (Jun-Aug) seasons. Adapted from NOAA/NWS.

Although El Niño (& La Niña) are generated in the tropical drought in Africa & India, weakening of Atlantic hurricanes, &
Pacific, their effects are felt all over the world. Because each greater precipitation in SW United States. During La Niña (Fig.
El Niño event is different, their effects vary. At temperate 22B), wetter than normal conditions develop over northern
latitudes, the effects show up most clearly during the winter. Australia, Indonesia & Malaysia, during the northern winter, &
Here are some of the general impacts of El Niño (Fig. 22A): over the Philippines during the northern summer. Wetter than
heavy rains on islands of Pacific & the west coast of South normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa
America, drought in Australia, Indonesia, & the Philippines, & northern Brazil, during the northern winter season. However,
warmer-than-normal winters in northern US & Canada, some areas experience drier than normal conditions.

23

A Warm B
Temperature

Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO)
First identified in the late 1990s (Mantua 1997), the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Cold
Temperature
Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. C
1997). The PDO's spatial pattern resembles that of ENSO.
The largest distinction between the PDO & ENSO is their
timescales: While ENSO is primarily an interannual
phenomenon, the PDO is decadal in scale. The PDO has
substantial decadal-scale variability, with characteristic time
scales in the observed record of 15–25 years & 50–70 years
(Minobe 1997).

The PDO, like ENSO, consists of warm (positive) & cool

(negative) phases (Fig. 23A & B) which alter upper level
atmospheric winds. The PDO spatial pattern is characterized Fig. 23. The warm (positive, A) & cold (negative, B) phases of the PDO showing the
by a ‘‘horseshoe shape,’’ with SST anomalies of one sign in characteristic “horseshoe” spatial pattern. Time series data of the PDO index from
1900-2010 clearly shows the oscillations from warm to cold phases. Adapted from
the central & western North Pacific & SST anomalies of the Zhang & Delworth (2015).
opposite sign in the east extending northwestward to the
North American coast & southwestward to the central tropical
global climate, affecting Pacific & Atlantic tropical cyclones
Pacific (Fig. 23A & B). The PDO variations over the last
activity, droughts & flooding around the Pacific basin, the
century can be clearly seen from the PDO index time series,
productivity of marine ecosystems, & global land temperature
shown in Figure 23C. From 1900-2010, we can interpret up to
patterns. Experts also believe the PDO can intensify or
ten oscillations from warm to cold phases.
diminish the impacts of ENSO according to its phase. If both
ENSO & the PDO are in the same phase, it is believed that El
Shifts in the PDO phase can have significant implications for
Niño/La Nina impacts may be magnified. Conversely, if ENSO

24
& the PDO are out of phase, it has been proposed that they
may offset one another, preventing "true" ENSO impacts from
occurring (NCSU).
Madden-Julian
Like ENSO, PDO is part of the natural oscillations of the ocean
Oscillation (MJO)
linked to the atmosphere that can produce warmer or cooler
periods. The effect of PDO can be ten times as strong (in a Named after Roland Madden & Paul Julian, who first
given year) as long-term warming that we have observed over described it, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is
the past century—larger, over a period of a few decades, than characterized by an eastward spread of large regions of
human-induced climate change (Botkin & Keller, 2011) enhanced & suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over
the Indian & western Pacific oceans ([Link])
The PDO modulates the effect of ENSO on tropical cyclone
rapid intensification in the western North Pacific (Wang & Liu How does the MJO work? An area of enhanced tropical
2016). There is a strong & statistically significant correlation rainfall is first apparent over the western Indian Oceans, which
between ENSO & the annual tropical cyclone rapid spreads eastwards into the warm waters of the tropical
intensification in warm PDO phases, unlike in cold PDO Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall tends to lose its identity
phases. The PDO in warm phases can strengthen an El Niño as it moves over the cooler waters of the eastern Pacific,
event to increase the effects of the warm pool of water over before reappearing at some point over the Indian Ocean
the equatorial Pacific in typhoon season. again. A wet phase of enhanced convection (rainfall) is
followed by a dry phase, where thunderstorm activity is
suppressed (no rainfall) (Fig. 24). During the MJO cycle there is
Similarly, both the ENSO & PDO affect the variability of the
a ‘dipole’ (a stark contrast) in rainfall anomalies, which
East Asian winter monsoon (Kim et al. 2014). When El Niño
propagates eastward. Each cycle lasts about 30-60 days. The
occurs with positive (warm) PDO phase, anomalous warm
location of the convective phases are often grouped into
temperatures are dominant over the East Asian winter
geographically based stages that climate scientists numbered
continent. The opposite is true. When La Niña occurs wirh
1-8 (Fig. 25).
negative (cold) PDO phase, colder temperatures prevail. On
the other hand, there are no significant temperature anomalies
when the ENSO & PDO are out-of-phase combinations (i.e., El MJO influences world weather in a number of ways: 1) the
Niño/negative PDO phase & La Niña/positive PDO phase). MJO creates favourable conditions for tropical cyclone activity;

25

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

Phase 5

Fig. 24. A wet phase of enhanced convection (rainfall) followed by a dry phase (no
rainfall) of MJO. The entire system shifts eastward over time, eventually circling the
globe & returning to its point of origin. Figure by Fiona Martin/[Link]. Phase 6

(2) the enhanced rainfall phase of the MJO can also bring the
onset of the monsoon seasons around the globe. Conversely,
the suppressed convection phase can delay the onset of the Phase 7
monsoon season; & (3) there is evidence that the MJO
influences the ENSO cycle. It does not cause El Niño or La
Niña, but it can contribute to the speed of development &
intensity of El Niño & La Niña episodes. The MJO appears to Phase 8
be more active during neutral & weak ENSO years
([Link]).

Fig. 25. Geographically based stages or phases of MJO. The green shading areas Phase 1
correspond to the extent of the enhanced convective phase (rainfall) of the MJO &
the brown shading areas correspond to the extent of the suppressed convective
phase (no rainfall) of the MJO. Note the eastward shifting of shaded areas with each
successive numbered phase from top to bottom. Adapted from Jon Gottschalck.

26
 cooler, radiates energy mostly in the far infrared, which has
Earth’s Energy Budget longer wavelengths. (The hotter the surface of any object, the
shorter the dominant wavelengths. That is why a hot flame is
blue & a cooler flame red.)
Almost all the energy the Earth receives is from the sun (a
small amount comes from the interior of the Earth & an even Under typical conditions, the Earth’s atmosphere reflects
smaller amount from frictional forces due to the moon about 30% of the electromagnetic (radiant) energy that comes
revolving around the Earth). Sunlight comes in a wide range of in from the sun & absorbs about 25%. The remaining 45%
electromagnetic (EM) radiation, from very long radio waves to gets to the surface (Fig. 27). As the surface warms up, it
much shorter infrared waves, then shorter wavelengths of radiates more energy back to the atmosphere, which absorbs
visible light, even shorter wavelengths of ultraviolet (UV), & some of it. The warmed atmosphere radiates some of its
then on to shorter & shorter wavelengths (Fig. 26). The shorter energy upward into outer space & some downward to the
the wavelength, the higher the energy of the wave. Earth’s surface. The process by which energy is absorbed &
re-radiated by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere back to
Most of the sun’s radiation that reaches the Earth is in the the Earth’s surface is called the greenhouse effect.
visible & near infrared wavelengths, while the Earth, much

Visible light

Shorter Gamma UV Infrared Longer

X-rays Microwaves TV, Radio waves
wavelengths rays radiation radiation wavelengths
and higher and lower
energy energy

Wavelengths 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 0.1 10 100 0.1 1 10 1 10 100

(not to scale)
Nanometers Micrometers Centimeters Meters
Fig. 26. The electromagnetic (EM) spectrum is the range of electromagnetic waves with different wavelengths & energy. The Earth (& its atmosphere) receives this EM radiation
ANIMATED FIGURE 2.8 The electromagnetic spectrum consists of a range of electromagnetic waves,
from the sun. Adapted from Miller & Spoolman (2015).
which 27
differ in wavelength (the distance between successive peaks or troughs) and energy content.
© Cengage Learning

Another form of kinetic energy is heat, or thermal sentially inexhaustible solar energy, the earth would be
energy, the total kinetic energy of all moving atoms, ions, frozen and life as we know it would not exist.
or molecules in an object, a body of water, or a volume of Commercial
radiation energy—energy
breaks apart that is(Osold
one oxygen molecule in the market-
2) to produce

Greenhouse Gases & the

gas such as the atmosphere. If the atoms, ions, or mole- two oxygen atomsup
place—makes
combines with an
(2 O).
theEach
oxygen
of these highly
remaining
molecule to
1% of
produce
reactive atoms we use
the energy
an ozone
cules in a sample of matter move faster, the matter will to supplement the earth’s direct input of solar energy.
Greenhouse Effect
become warmer. When two objects at different tempera-
molecule (O3). These reactions occur continually whenever
About 87% of the commercial energy used in the world
solar ultraviolet radiation is present in the stratosphere. Near
tures come in contact with one another, heat flows from andground,
the 87% called
of that used in the
tropospheric United
ozone, States
it serves as acomes from the
pollutant
the warmer objectsection,
In the previous to thewecooler object.
discussed whatYou makes learned
the Earththis &burning of to
contributor nonrenewable
smog & also hasfossil fuels—oil,
greenhouse coal, and natural
characteristics.
the first time
warm. you
The touched
Earth is warmed a hot stove.
by the Sun. This warmth is gas. They are called fossil fuels because they were formed
In returned
anotherfrom Earth
form oftokinetic
the atmosphere
energy in the form
called of heat
electromag- Greenhouse
over hundreds gases ofarethousands
transparent to
toincoming
millions(short wave) as layers
of years
netic radiation, energy travels in the form of aCO
radiation. Many gases in the atmosphere, including wave2,
as a radiation from the sun but block infrared (long wave)
of the decaying remains of ancient plants and animals radiation
absorb the Earth’s heat energy & radiate in all directions. They from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. This greenhouse effect
result are
of called
changes in electrical and magnetic
greenhouse gases. The energy radiated downward
fields. There were exposed to intense heat and pressure within the
traps radiation from the sun & warms the planet's surface. As
are many
warms different
the surface forms of electromagnetic
& lower atmosphere. Adding moreradiationCO2 to earth’s [Link] these gases increase, more warming occurs
concentrations
(Figurethe2.8), each having
atmosphere means more a different wavelength
heat radiation is captured (the dis-
by the than would happen naturally.
tance atmosphere & radiated back
between successive peaksto Earth. Methanein
or troughs (CH 4) iswave),
the
anothercontent.
and energy very important
Thosegreenhouse
with short gas that is part of the have
wavelengths Some
The Types
greenhouse ofis Energy
effect Are Without
a natural process. Morethe Useful
carbon cycle. greenhouse effect, radiation from the Sun (mostly in the form
more energy than do those with longer wavelengths. Than Others
of visible light) would travel to Earth & be changed into heat,
The other major typegases of energy is potential energy, only to be lost to space.
Many greenhouse occur naturally in the atmosphere, Energy quality is aWithout
measure naturally
of theoccurring
capacity of a type of
whichsuchis stored and potentially available for use.
as CO2, CH4, water vapor, & nitrous oxide, while others Examples greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be
energy to do useful work. High-quality energy is con-
of thisare
type of energy
synthetic. Those include
that are aman-made
rock heldincludein your the hand, the near -18°C instead of the much warmer 15°C (Ma, 1998).
centrated
Without energy
the strong that has
downward a high
emission capacity
of infrared from to
the do useful
water chlorofluorocarbons
in a reservoir behind (CFCs),ahydrofluorocarbons
dam, and the chemical (HFCs), en-
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), as wellofascoal
sulfurorhexafluoride (SF6). work. Examples
greenhouse aresurface
effect, land very high-temperature
would cool much faster heat,
at concen-
ergy stored in the carbon atoms in the molecules
trated
night sunlight,
& warm much high-speed wind,the
more quickly during and
[Link]
energy
helps released
of any food that you eat. limit temperature
Ozone (O3) is not a typical greenhouse gas. It has two distinct when we burnswingswood, from day to night
gasoline, & maintain
natural gas, aor coal.
Wefunctions
can change potential High
in the atmosphere. energyin thetostratosphere,
kinetic energy. it If relatively comfortable surface temperature. The problem is not
By contrast, low-quality energy is energy that is so
you hold this book in your hand, it has potential
absorbs UV light from the sun & protects the Earth (Fig. 4). energy. the greenhouse effect itself but the changes in the amount of
dispersed that it has little capacity
greenhouse gases that enhance the greenhouse effect.
to do useful work. For
However, if you drop
Stratospheric ozoneitison yournaturally
formed foot, the book’s reactions
by chemical potential
example, the enormous number of moving molecules in
energyinvolving
changes solar to
UV kinetic
radiation &energy.
O2 molecules.
WhenThea solar car UV engine
the atmosphere or in an ocean together have such low-
burns gasoline, the potential energy stored in the chemical
quality energy, and such a low temperature, that we can-
bonds of the gasoline molecules changes into kinetic en-
not use them to move things or to heat things to high
ergy that propels the car, and into heat that flows into the
28 temperatures.
environment. When water in a reservoir flows through
channels in a dam (Figure 2.9), its potential energy be-
comes kinetic energy used to spin turbines in the dam to
 Fig. 27. The greenhouse effect is a process of absorbing the infrared radiation (heat) from the Earth’s surface by the greenhouse [Link] absorbed heat is then reemitted
in all directions-towards space, to other greenhouse gas molecules, & back to Earth's surface. This process is naturally occurring & beneficial, as it maintains favorable living
conditions for Earth's microbial, animal & plant inhabitants. The global average temperature is 15°C, it will be below freezing without the greenhouse effect. However, Earth’s
greenhouse effect is getting stronger as we add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. This warms the climate of our planet.

29

The tilt of the Earth’s axis with respect to Earth’s orbital plane,
Climate Drivers known as obliquity; &

The direction where the Earth’s axis of rotation is pointed,

What drivers climate? Both natural & human factors cause known as precession.
climate to change. Natural factors include the Earth’s orbital
variation (Milankovitch cycles), plate tectonics, massive Eccentricity. The Earth’s orbit around the Sun vary from
volcanic eruption, & solar activity. Human factors can be nearly circular to slightly elliptical, which occur in 100,000
summed up through the variation in the amount of years cycle (Fig. 28A). Eccentricity measures how much the
greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, in the atmosphere. shape of Earth’s orbit departs from a perfect circle. These
variations affect the distance between Earth & the Sun. When
Earth’s orbit is at its most elliptic, about 23% more insolation
Milankovitch Cycles reaches Earth at our planet’s closest approach to the Sun
(perihelion) each year than does at its farthest departure from
The Earth has three types of orbital movements, which affect the Sun (aphelion). Currently, Earth’s eccentricity is becoming
how much incoming solar radiation (known as insolation) nearly circular. The total change in global annual insolation due
reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere as well as where the to the eccentricity cycle is very small. Because variations in
insolation reaches. These orbital movements occur in cycles & Earth’s eccentricity are fairly small, they are a relatively minor
became known as the Milankovitch cycles. In the 1920s, factor in annual seasonal climate variations.
Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch hypothesized that orbital
variations as the earth rotates around the sun might be Obliquity. The tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation as it travels
responsible for cyclic weather & long-term climate changes. around the Sun is known as obliquity (Fig. 28B). This tilt varies
These cycles cause variations of up to 25% in the amount of from 22.1° to 24.5° perpendicular to Earth’s orbital plane in a
insolation at Earth’s mid-latitudes, the areas of our planet cycle of 41,000 years. The greater the Earth’s axial tilt angle is,
located between about 30-60° north & south of the equator the more extreme our seasons are, i.e. warmer summers &
(Alan Buis, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory). colder winters. When the hemisphere is tilted towards the sun,
it receives more insolation, hence warmer summer. The
The Milankovitch cycles include (Fig. 28): opposite is true during winter, when it receives less insolation
as it is tilted away from the sun. Obliquity is why Earth has
The shape of Earth’s orbit, known as eccentricity; seasons.

30
 of climate to orbital variations.
OnceCO 2 increase
Earth in the
receives energy fromatmosphere
the sun, Earth’s has
surfacebeen about 25% in
closethe
features affect agreement with
climate. These Arctic
earthly surface
factors temperature increase.
that affect,
and are inThus
turn affected
in theby, regional
past and global
50 years COtemperature
appears to be a dominant
AA. Eccentricity (100,000 years) changes include warmer ice-sheet temperatures; 2changes in
vegetation; changes in atmospheric gases,24such as carbon di- in the Arctic as
factor in increasing surface temperature
well asandthe
oxide, methane, entire
nitrous Earth.
oxide; That and
and particulates is recent
aero- warming cannot
be explained
sols. Volcanoes by solar
inject aerosols activity.
into the upper atmosphere,
where they reflect sunlight and cool
Earth’s theisEarth’s
axis surface.
currently tilted 23.4° & this angle is very slowly
decreasing. It will reach its minimum tilt about 9,800 years
Solar Atmospheric
Cycles from [Link] Affects
As obliquity decreases, it gradually helps make our
Climate
As we discussed earlier, and
the sunWeather
seasons milder, resulting in increasingly warmer winters, &
goes through cycles too,
sometimes growing hotter, cooler summers.
sometimes Over
colder. time,so-this will allow snow & ice at high
Today,
How transparent
lar intensity is observedlatitudes the
directly withtoatmosphere
build up into
telescopes andislarge
to the
other iceradiation
sheets. Ascom-
ice cover
B
B. Obliquity
FIG U RE 20.18 (41,000 years)
The Earth wobbles, changes its tilt, and has an
instruments. ing to it, from
Variations in both
increases,
the the
sun’s it sun
reflects
intensity and in Earth’s
more
the of
past surface,
the Sun’s affects
energytheback into space
elliptical orbit that changes as well. (Source: Skinner, Porter, and temperature
can be determined because of hotter
(albedothe Earth.
effect,
and cooler Dust
[Link] and
29), aerosols absorb
periods
promoting light,cooling (this
even further
Botkin, The Blue Planet [John Wiley], 2nd edition, p. 335.)
emit differentcooling amounts of radionuclides—atoms
theis Earth’s
called positive feedback).
asurfaces. Volcanoeswith and These effects
large are not uniform
forest
Fig. 28. Variations in the
unstable nuclei that undergo radioactive decay (such as
Earth’s orbitals affect the
beryllium-10 and
globally
carbon-14),
--
which
higher
are
latitudes
trapped in
receive a larger change in total
glacial
insolation & therefore the
ice A. and insolation
can then be measured. Asthan areas closer
we mentioned to the equator.
earlier,
Earth’s climate. Precision
is the change evaluation
in the shape of of
these radionuclides in ice cores from glaciers
the Earths’s reveals
orbit aroundthat the
during thePrecession.
Medieval WarmAs Period,
Earthfrom ap- it wobbles slightly upon its
rotates,
Sun from nearlyproximately
circular toa.d. 950 to 1250, the amount of solar energy
axis, like a slightly off-center spinning toy top. This wobble is
elliptical. B. reaching
Obliquity isEarththe was relatively high, and that minimum so-
change in the lartiltactivity
of the occurred during due to tidal forces caused by the gravitational influences of
the 14th century, coincident
Earth’s axis ofwithrotation. C.
the beginning the Little
of the Sun Ice & Moon
Age. Thus, that itcause
appears Earth to bulge at the equator,
Precession is the wobble of affecting
44 6 C H A P T E R 2 0 The Atmosphere, Climate, and Global Warming that the variability of solar energyitsinputrotation.
explains The trend in the direction of this wobble
a small
the Earth as it rotates on its
part of the Earth’s climatic
axis. Adapted from Botkin & relative to the fixed
variability. 22, 23
positions
Since aboutof stars is known as axial
Keller (2011). 1880 solar input has increased
precession about (Fig.0.5%28C). while CO2
C
C. Precession (23,000 years) Milankovich
changes hasin increased
attempted explain
aboutreaching
solar radiation 33%. Solar
ice ages
[Link]
through
in the Arctic has
His contribu-
tion isclosely followed annual
very significant. While surface temperature.
Milankovitch
Axial precession cycles Since 1960,
are seasonal
makes contrasts more extreme in
CO2with
consistent increase in theofatmosphere
the timing variations inhas beenand
glacial about
in- 25% in
closechange,
ter glacial agreement with not
they were
one
Arctic hemisphere
surfacetotemperature
intented
& less extreme in the other. Currently, the
not account increase.
Thus
for all the in the past
large-scale 50 years
climatic EarthCOis2 in
variations nearest
appears toto
the geologic bethe Sun (perihelion) during winter in the
are-dominant
cord. Itfactor
is perhapsin increasing
best to think Northern
surface Hemisphere
temperature
of these cycles & in summer
in the Arctic
as response as in the Southern
24
welltoasorbital
of climate the entire Earth.
variations. That is recent
Hemisphere. Thiswarming
makes cannot
Southern Hemisphere summers
be explained
Once Earth receivesby solar
energyactivity.
from the sun, Earth’s surface
hotter & moderates Northern Hemisphere seasonal variations.
features affect the climate. These earthly factors that affect,
But and
and are in turn affected by, regional as the
globalaxial precession cycle ends, it will cause these
temperature
changesAtmospheric Transparency
include warmer ice-sheet conditions
temperatures; Affects
to changes
flip, with
in the Northern Hemisphere seeing more
Climate
vegetation; and
changes in Weather
extremes
atmospheric in assolar
gases, such carbonradiation
di- & the Southern Hemisphere
oxide, methane, and nitrous oxide; and particulates and aero-
How transparent
sols. Volcanoes the atmosphere
inject aerosols is toatmosphere,
into the upper the radiation com-
FIG URE 20.18
ing to it, from both the sun and Earth’s surface, affects the
The Earth wobbles, changes its tilt, and has an where they reflect sunlight and cool the Earth’s surface.
elliptical orbit that changes as well. (Source: Skinner, Porter, and temperature of the Earth. Dust and aerosols absorb light,
Botkin, The Blue Planet [John Wiley], 2nd edition, p. 335.)
31 cooling the Earth’s surfaces. Volcanoes and large forest
Solar Cycles
As we discussed earlier, the sun goes through cycles too,
sometimes growing hotter, sometimes colder. Today, so-
lar intensity is observed directly with telescopes and other
instruments. Variations in the sun’s intensity in the past
can be determined because hotter and cooler sun periods
emit different amounts of radionuclides—atoms with
unstable nuclei that undergo radioactive decay (such as
experiencing more moderate seasonal variations. Axial The small changes set in motion by Milankovitch cycles
beryllium-10 and carbon-14), which are trapped in glacial
precession also gradually changes the timing of icethe
andseasons,
can then be measured. operate separately
As we mentioned & together to influence Earth’s climate over
earlier,
causing them to begin earlier or later over [Link] of these radionuclides tens of cores
in ice thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. The
from glaciers
reveals that during the Medieval theoryWarmthat the from
Period, Milankovitch
ap- cycles drive the timing of glacial
There is also apsidal precession. Not only doesproximately a.d. 950 to 1250,(ice
Earth’s axis the amount of solar energy(warm ages) cycles is well accepted.
ages)-interglacial
reaching Earth was relatively high, and that minimum so-
wobble, but Earth’s entire orbital ellipse also wobbles
lar activity occurred during the 14th century, coincident
irregularly, primarily due to its interactions with with
Jupiter &
the beginning of the Little Ice Age. Thus, it appears
Fig. 29. Google Earth image of Greenland. One of the concepts that you will need to
Saturn. Apsidal precession changes the orientation that theofvariability
Earth’s of solar energy input explains a small
consider in22, thinking
23 about Greenland's ice is albedo, the measure of a surface's
orbit relative to the elliptical plane. The combinedpart effects
of the Earth’s
of climatic variability. Since about
reflectivity. Light-colored materials have high reflectivity, i.e., they reflect most of the
1880 solar input has increased about that
insolation 0.5% while
strikes anyCOsurface composed of reflective materials with a high
axial & apsidal precession result in an overall precession
has increasedcycle
about 33%. Solar input in An
theexample
Arctic has
2
albedo value. of a material with a high albedo (high reflectivity) is fresh
spanning about 23,000 years on average. closely followed annual surface temperature.
snow, Sinceof1960,
with an albedo about 0.84. In other words, fresh snow reflects
CO2 increase in the atmosphere has been about
approximately 84% of25% in
the insolation that strikes it (SERC).
close agreement with Arctic surface temperature increase.
Thus in the past 50 years CO2 appears to be a dominant
factor in increasing surface temperature in the Arctic as
well as the entire Earth.24 That is recent warming cannot
be explained by solar activity.

Atmospheric Transparency Affects

Climate and Weather
How transparent the atmosphere is to the radiation com-
FI G U RE 20 .1 8 The Earth wobbles, changes its tilt, and has an
ing to it, from both the sun and Earth’s surface, affects the
elliptical orbit that changes as well. (Source: Skinner, Porter, and temperature of the Earth. Dust and aerosols absorb light,
Botkin, The Blue Planet [John Wiley], 2nd edition, p. 335.) cooling the Earth’s surfaces. Volcanoes and large forest

32
Plate Tectonics
Plate tectonics is the theory of how our
planet’s lithosphere—its outer layer—
changes shape & evolves. It is the
driving force behind most of the
climate changes that our planet has
endured over geological time. How?

One of the important things to think

about is the location of the continents
through time (Fig. 30). The movement
of the continents gave way to the
opening & closing of different water Fig. 30. When most of the continental crust in the world was concentrated in a single land mass, Pangaea
ways, which, in turn, affect the ocean (280-230 million years ago), the climate was so severe that it made central Pangea uninhabitable
([Link]). The temperature may have reached 45°C in the centre of the supercontinent. In other areas
circulation (Fig. 15). At certain times, near the centre, the mean monthly temperature may have been 50°C higher in summer than in winter. In
equatorial ocean currents were able to addition, rainfall simulation showed it to be a very dry place. Figure from [Link]
circulate the Earth through the Circum-
Equatorial Seaway. This allowed for
circum-polar currents). This isolated The movement of continents resulted
more warming because of a much
the polar continents & caused polar to the development of new seaways &
higher rate of ocean re-circulation
temperature to drop. The formation of emergence of new ocean currents.
currents diverging from the equator to
a super continent at the equator may This, in turn, changed the ocean
the north & south. The warm waters
have resulted to a warmer climate transport of warm & cold waters.
from the equator were distributed to
since there is more absorption of solar
the higher latitudes in the northern &
radiation. As a consequence, there is Currently, in the southern hemisphere
southern hemispheres where the
less possibility of polar ice caps there is a stronger & more zonal (i.e.
waters were colder. At other times, the
forming & the net effect is higher global W-E flow) ocean circulation because
Equatorial flow may have been
temperature. there is less continental land mass.
blocked, which resulted in higher
The presence of a land mass at the
latitude currents to form (called

33

south pole (Antarctica) also resulted to

the build-up of a vast ice sheet, several
kilometers thick. However, the lack of a
land mass at the north pole means
that the ice is relatively thinner. This
resulted to a comparatively cooler
climate in the southern hemisphere.

The positioning of continents is one of

the most important factors controlling
long periods of multiple ice ages
(glaciations). Large landmasses at the
Fig. 31. The orographic effect results to rainy windward slope & a dry leeward slope, called the rain shadow
poles seem to be the trigger for the (NOAA downloaded from [Link])
development of extensive ice sheets.
This is because large accumulations of
ice cannot form on the ocean. when air masses are forced to flow On the leeward side of mountain
Landmass distribution or continental over high topography. As air rises over ranges, the opposite occurs: the air
drift cause changes in the circulatory mountains, it cools & water vapor descends & warms. As it does so, it is
patterns of ocean currents. Whenever condenses. As a result, it is common capable of holding more water vapor.
there is a large landmass at one of the for rain to be concentrated on the However, there is no source of
Earth’s poles, ice ages occur. windward side of mountains, & for additional water, so the descending air
rainfall to increase with elevation in the mass increases in temperature but the
Another consequence of plate direction of storm tracks. With amount of water vapor remains
tectonics is mountain building. How continued cooling past the dewpoint, constant. Because the air has lost
does mountain building affect climate? the amount of water vapor in the air much of its original water content, as it
Higher mountains change the cannot exceed saturation, so water is descends & warms, its relative
atmospheric flow & therefore change lost from the air via condensation & humidity decreases. These areas are
the rainfall patterns & rates. This is precipitation (PSU). called rain shadows & are commonly
what we call the orographic effect deserts (PSU).
(Fig. 31). The orographic effect occurs

34
 A

Massive Volcanic Eruption

Volcanoes can impact climate change. During major explosive
eruptions huge amounts of volcanic gas, aerosol droplets,
& ash are injected into the stratosphere. Injected ash falls
rapidly from the stratosphere -- most of it is removed within
several days to weeks -- & has little impact on climate
change. But volcanic gases like SO2 can cause global cooling,
while volcanic carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, has the
potential to promote global warming (USGS).

When SO2 is released during volcanic eruption, it is coverted

to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere
to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the
B
reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling
the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere.

The climactic eruption of Mount Pinatubo on 15 Jun 1991,

was one of the largest eruptions of the twentieth century &
injected a 20 M ton SO2 cloud into the stratosphere at an
altitude of more than 30 km (Fig. 32). The Pinatubo cloud was
the largest SO2 cloud ever observed in the stratosphere since
the beginning of such observations by satellites in 1978. It
caused what is believed to be the largest aerosol disturbance
of the stratosphere in the twentieth century, though probably Fig. 32. A. The 15 Jun 1991 climactic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo released ash cloud
smaller than the disturbances from eruptions of Krakatau in that rose 35 km into the air & spread aerosol particles in the stratosphere. Photo by
1883 & Tambora in 1815. Consequently, it was a standout in Dave Harlow (USGS) B. Earth's limb showing the double layer of volcanic aerosol
its climate impact & cooled the Earth's surface for three years particles following the Pinatubo eruption. Encircling the globe at altitudes even
higher than the tops of thunderstorm clouds, the particles reflected so much
following the eruption, by as much as 0.6°C at the height of incoming sunlight that global surface temperatures cooled off for three years. Photo
the impact (USGS). taken by astronauts from the Space Shuttle in early Aug 1991 from NASA JSC's
Gateway to Astronaut Photography of the Earth.

35

Solar Minimum
Solar Minimum

Carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas & is the primary gas

blamed for the current global warming, is also released into
the atmosphere during volcanic eruption. While SO2 released
in contemporary volcanic eruptions has occasionally caused
detectable global cooling of the lower atmosphere, the CO2
released in contemporary volcanic eruptions has never
caused detectable global warming of the atmosphere. In
2010, human activities were responsible for a projected 35
gigatons (Gt) of CO2 emissions. All studies to date of global
volcanic CO2 emissions indicate that present-day subaerial
(on land) & submarine volcanoes release less than a percent
of the CO2 released currently by human activities (USGS).

Published scientific estimates of the global CO2 emission rate Solar Maximum
for all degassing subaerial & submarine volcanoes lie in a
range from 0.13 - 0.44 Gt/yr. The 35 Gt projected
Fig. 33. The solar cycle. The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or when the Sun
anthropogenic CO2 emission for 2010 is about 80-270 times has the least sunspots. Over time, solar activity—& the number of sunspots—increases. The
larger than the respective maximum & minimum annual global middle of the solar cycle is the solar maximum, or when the Sun has the most sunspots. This
volcanic CO2 emission estimates (USGS). means increased insolation. As the cycle ends, it fades back to the solar minimum & then a
new cycle begins. Dan Seaton/European Space Agency (Collage by NOAA/JPL-Caltech).

But over the course of geologic time, volcanoes have

occassionally contributed to global warming by producing Solar Activity
significant amounts of CO2 & other greenhouse gases. For
example, some geologists hypothesize that 250 M years ago, The Sun is a magnetic variable star that fluctuates on times
an extensive flood of lava poured continually from the ground scales ranging from a fraction of a second to billions of years.
in Siberia perhaps hundreds of thousands of years. This large- The Sun's magnetic field goes through a cycle, called
scale, long-lasting eruption likely raised global temperatures the solar cycle (Fig. 33). Every 11 years or so, the Sun's
enough to cause one of the worst extinction events in our magnetic field completely flips. This means that the Sun's
planet's history. Fortunately, current volcanic activity does not north & south poles switch places. Then it takes about
occur on the same massive scale ([Link]). another 11 years for the Sun’s north & south poles to flip back
again.

36
 Solar Minimum
Solar Minimum

centuries – could potentially have an effect on Earth's climate

system (NASA).

Longer-term records of solar activity suggest that the cycle

can vary dramatically from cycle to cycle. Indeed, from 1645
to 1715 – an era now known as the Maunder Minimum –
there were almost no sunspots recorded. Anomalies like this
show that magnetic activity & energy output from the Sun can
vary over decades, though the space-based observations of
the last 35 years have seen little change from one cycle to the
next in terms of total irradiance. Solar Cycle 24, which began
in December 2008 & which is likely to end in 2020 (Fig. 33),
was smaller in magnitude than the previous two.
Solar Maximum
The Maunder Minimum, a period of low magnetic activity on
the Sun that stretched from 1645 -1715, occurred in the
middle of a period of colder climate in northern Europe known
as the Little Ice Age, which stretched from 1550 -1850.
Fig. 34. Total solar irradiance over the past three solar cycles (1975-2008), varying Scientists continue to research whether an extended solar
between 1365 - 1367 W/m2. David Rind, NASA Emeritus
minimum could affect the climate in this way – but there is little
evidence
Summary for Policymakersthat the Maunder Minimum sparked the Little Ice
The solar cycle affects activity on the surface of the Sun, such
Age, or at least not entirely by itself. For one thing, the Little
as sunspots, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, high-speed
Ice Age began before the Maunder Minimum. Current theories
solar wind, & solar energetic particles. As the magnetic fields from black carbon absorption of solar radiation. There is high confidence that aerosols and their interactions with clouds
on
havewhat causedportion the ofLittle
global Ice
meanAgeforcinginclude a variety ofgases.
events
change, so does the amount of activity on the Sun's surface. offset a substantial from well-mixed greenhouse They continue to contribute
that could
the largest haveto the
uncertainty contributed,
total RF [Link]
{7.5, 8.3, 8.5} increased volcanic
What happens is that in between flips, the total radiation from
activity & changes in ocean circulations. There are also other
the Sun – known as total solar irradiance – waxes & wanes in • The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years after volcanic
examples throughout
eruptions. Several history
small eruptions have caused anwhen less[–0.15
RF of –0.11 activity on
to –0.08] W mthe
–2 for Sun
the years 2008 to 2011, which
a semi-regular cycle by up to 0.15% (Fig. 34). The short termSPM
correlated
is approximately to
twicehigher
as strong temperatures
as during the years 1999 onto Earth.
2002. {8.4}So, an association
changes in solar irradiance are not strong enough to have a
long term influence on Earth's climate. Sustained changes in • between solar incycle
The RF due to changes & climate
solar irradiance cooling
is estimated as 0.05is definitely
[0.00 to 0.10] W mnot
−2 (see Figure SPM.5). Satellite obser-

established.
vations of total solar irradiance changes from 1978 to 2011 indicate that the last solar minimum was lower than the
solar radiance – that is changes that occur over decades or previous two. This results in an RF of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m–2 between the most recent minimum in 2008 and the
1986 minimum. {8.4}

• The total natural RF from solar irradiance changes and stratospheric volcanic aerosols made only a small contribution to
37 the net radiative forcing throughout the last century, except for brief periods after large volcanic eruptions. {8.5}

Emitted Resulting atmospheric Level of

compound drivers
Radiative forcing by emissions and drivers confidence

CO2 CO2 1.68 [1.33 to 2.03] VH

Well-mixed greenhouse gases

CH4 CO2 H2Ostr O3 CH4 0.97 [0.74 to 1.20] H

Halo-
O3 CFCs HCFCs 0.18 [0.01 to 0.35] H

Carbon Dioxide carbons

N 2O N 2O 0.17 [0.13 to 0.21] VH

CO
Anthropogenic

CO2 CH4 O3 M
As discussed earlier, CO2 is one of the gases that block heat
0.23 [0.16 to 0.30]
Short lived gases and aerosols

from escaping the Earth. These greenouse gases can be NMVOC CO2 CH4 O3 0.10 [0.05 to 0.15] M

grouped into two. First are the gases that respond physically NOx Nitrate CH4 O3 -0.15 [-0.34 to 0.03] M

or chemically to changes in temperature & are seen as Aerosols and Mineral dust Sulphate Nitrate
H
“feedbacks”. An example of this is the water vapor. It is the precursors -0.27 [-0.77 to 0.23]
Organic carbon Black carbon
(Mineral dust,
SO2, NH3,
most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a Organic carbon
and Black carbon)
Cloud adjustments
due to aerosols
-0.55 [-1.33 to -0.06] L

feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's Albedo change
-0.15 [-0.25 to -0.05] M
due to land use
atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds & Changes in
Natural

0.05 [0.00 to 0.10] M

precipitation, making these some of the most important solar irradiance
2.29 [1.13 to 3.33]
feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect. Second are 2011 H
Total anthropogenic
the gases that are long-lived & remain semi-permanently in the 1980 1.25 [0.64 to 1.86] H
RF relative to 1750
atmosphere. They do not respond physically or chemically to 1950 0.57 [0.29 to 0.85] M

changes in temperature & are described as "forcing" climate

−1 0 1 2 3
change. The gases that made the most impact to the present Radiative forcing relative to 1750 (W m−2)
climate are CO2, N2O & CH4 & of these three, CO2 has
Figure SPM.5 | Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are
contributed the most t (IPCC, 2013; Fig. 35). Fig. 35. Change in the radiative forcing of the main drivers of climate change from
global average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best esti-
mates1750 toradiative
of the net [Link]
CO2arehas showntheas highest estimated
black diamonds radiative
with corresponding forcing.
uncertainty RF=Radiative
intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right
of theforcing; NMVOC=
figure, together Non-methane
with the confidence volatile
level in the net organic
forcing (VH compounds;
– very high, VH= LVery
H – high, M – medium, – low,high;
VL – very low). Albedo forcing due to
Carbon dioxide is a minor (0.036% by volume) but very black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m–2, including contrail induced cirrus),
H=High; M=Medium; L=Low. Adapted from IPCC Assesment Report 5 (2013).
and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m–2) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the like-coloured bars. Volcanic
important component of the atmosphere. It is released forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided
for three different years relative to 1750. For further technical details, including uncertainty ranges associated with individual components and processes,
through natural processes such as respiration & volcanic Carbon dioxide puts us at the greatest risk of irreversible
see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {8.5; Figures 8.14–8.18; Figures TS.6 and TS.7}
eruptions & through human activities such as deforestation, changes if it continues to accumulate unabated in the
land use changes, & burning fossil fuels (Fig. 36). Over the last 14 atmosphere because it remains in the atmosphere longer than
century the burning of fossil fuels like coal & oil has increased the other major heat-trapping gases. It takes about a decade
the concentration of CO2. This happens because the coal or for CH4 emissions to leave the atmosphere (it converts into
oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to CO2) & about a century for N2O. After a pulse of CO2 is
make CO2. The global average amount of CO2 hit a new emitted into the atmosphere, 40% will remain in the
record high in 2019: 409.8 parts per million, ppm for short atmosphere for 100 years & 20% will reside for 1000 years,
(Lindsey, [Link]). The highest prevous concentation, 300 while the final 10% will take 10,000 years to turn over
ppm, occurred about 325,000 years ago. ([Link]).

38
 #, )*- -FB#+-/ .#,)1,-,)+ (%7 *%<- %..-"-'%)-/ )*- /'%&/#&, #; #..0''-/ 22432 67' %!# %+ &#0"/ '-+0") ;'#( -F)-,/-/ /-B#+1)1#,
=>?C I, %//1)1#,: 1) *%+ $--, B'#B#+-/ )*%) .#,)1,01,! .#""1+1#, #;a *1!* "-<-"+ #; B7'1)- 1, %,#F1. (%'1,- +-/1(-,)+33: %,/b )*1+
Neogene Palaeogene
$-)&--, I,/1% %,/ J+1% &#0"/ *%<- .%0+-/ % B'#!'-++1<- '-/0.)1#, 1,)-'<%" .#''-+B#,/+ )# % !-,-'%" /-."1,- 1, !=> C
PPli. Miocene Oligocene Eocene ? Pal. P
1, %'. <#".%,1+( )*'#0!* )*1+ 1,)-'<%": .#($1,-/ &1)* % +&1).* ;'#( ><-'%"": )*- !late <%"0-+
=>? middle early;#' )*- -%'"7
late =-,#Q#1.
middle +*#& .#,+1/-'%$"7
early
Flux to atmosphere (762 + 4.1/yr mostly due to burning fossil fuels) * 5,000 500
#'!%,1. .%'$#, @=#'!D -F*0(%)1#, #, )*- I,/1%, .#,)1,-,)%" +*-"; )# (#'- <%'1%$1"1)7 )*%, /# )*- <%"0-+ ;#' )*- "%)- =-,#Q#1.C E*1+ (%7
=#'! $0'1%" 1, "%'!- ;#'-"%,/ $%+1,+: $'1,!1,! %$#0) % '-/0.)1#,GG 1, $- B%')"7 /0- )# )*- (%!,1M.%)1#, #; -''#'+ )*%) #..0'+ %) "#&

Atmosphere pCO2 (p.p.m.)

!=>?C 4,000 $0) 1) (%7 %"+# '-X-.) !'-%)-' 1,+)%$1"1)7 #; )*- !"#$%"400
BK <%"0-+:

Atmosphere pCO2 (p.p.m.)

K1!*L"%)1)0/- .##"1,! $-!%, %) %$#0) )*- )1(- #; % +*%'B +-%L"-<-" .%'$#, +7+)-( /0'1,! &%'( B-'1#/+C E*- '-"%)1<- .#,+)%,.7 #; !=>?
Volcanoes (0.1/yr) 0.5
Land-use%) 25 67' %!# )*%) .#''-+B#,/+ )# % &1/-+B'-%/ *1%)0+ 1,
'-!'-++1#, <%"0-+ 1, )*- "%)-' =-,#Q#1. 1+ .1'.0(+)%,)1%" -<1/-,.- )*%) !=>? 1+300
3,000
change (1.6/yr) 82489
(%'1,- +-/1(-,)+ C E*1+ -<-,) 1+ )*- M'+) #; ;#0' (%N#' +)-B+8O @%+ +)%$1"1Q-/ $7 % *#(-#+)%)1. ;--/$%.S (-.*%,1+( 1,<#"<1,! )*-
Burning fossil *1!*"1!*)-/Land#, P1!C 3D )*%) B0,.)0%)- )*- "#,!L)-'( *1+)#'7 #; !'--,*#0+- -;;-.)32C E*1+ 1+ $-.%0+- '%/1%)1<- ;#'.1,! 1+ %(B"1M-/ %)
fuels (6.5/yr) 2,000
photosynthesis and G5
=-,#Q#1. .##"1,!C 6.R#&'%, *%+Oceanic
respiration (120/yr)
B'#B#+-/ )*%) % '-<-'+- !'--,L
photosynthesis "#& !=>?: *-,.- +(%"" <%'1%)1#,+ &#0"/ $- /%(B-/ (#'- -;M.1-,)"7200
*#0+- -;;-.) #B-'%)-/ %) )*%) )1(-: .%0+-/ and respiration
$7 *1!*(90/yr)
"-<-"+ #; +1"1.-#0+ $7 *#(-#+)%+1+C
B"%,S)#, B'#/0.)1<1)7 1, )*- #.-%,+ %,/ .#''-+B#,/1,!"7 -,*%,.-/ 1,000
>0' #"/-+) +%(B"-+ ;'#( )*1+ +-) 1,/1.%)- )*%) )*-'- &%+ %100
No data
a b
Soil storage Neogene Palaeogene 0 0
(1580) * Storage in land PPli. Miocene Oligocene Eocene Pal. 0P. Pliocene
10 20 30
Miocene 40 50 60
O. 0
plants (700) *
5,000
late middle early late middle early
500
late
Age (Myr ago)
middle early

Coal
!"#$%& ' !"#$%& $' ()*$+,-"%.# #(%/$0 &.$1.&" '$% )-" ,(+) 23 45%6 (7 8-" 9-$:" %"#$%&; :$9"% ,@ G(:?"+

Atmosphere pCO2 (p.p.m.)

Weathering4,000
and 400
)7 "1,(0+.$0 '$% )-" ,(+) <= 45%6 >" 0$)" )-() )-" 0()?%" $' )-" ,@A!BBC## %":().$0+-., "I?.:./%.( ,%"+"0

Atmosphere pCO2 (p.p.m.)

Oil erosion (0.4/yr)
*"(0+ )-() (0(:5).#(: "%%$%+ %"+?:) .0 *?#- :(%D"% ?0#"%)(.0)."+ .0 )-" #(:#?:()"& !EF< ()
?
3,000 300
Storage in
pCO2 (p.p.m.) CO2 radiative forcin

Peri od
ocean waters

Pli.P Epoch
Fossil fuel 2,000 200
storage (4000) * ? 38,000 *

Er a
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 215 220 225
Storage units in billions of metric tons of carbon 0
* 1,000
Storage in
100
(GtC) and fluxes are GtC/yr. (uncertainties are ±20%) Nomarine
data sediments and
sedimentary rocks (100,000,000) *
Indicates direction of carbon transfer in GtC/yr. 0

Neogene
10 0

Miocene
30
FIGUR 40 E 6.1 6 50 0 10
The carbon6020 0 5 10 15 20 25
(a) Age (Myrcycle.
ago)(a) Generalized global Age (Myr ago)
Fig. 36. Generalized global carbon cycle. Note that the carbon cycle is not the same as the carbon dioxide cycle.
carbon cycle. (b) Parts of the
Carbon has a gaseous phase as part of its cycle,
!"#$%&occurring
' !"#$%& $'in()*$+,-"%.#
the atmosphere such as
#(%/$0 &.$1.&" '$% CO & CH
)-" ,(+) 23 45%6
2 carbon both
(7 8-"
4, cycle 9-$:" %"#$%&;
simplified 20 :$9"% ,@ G(:?"+6 8-"+" G(:?"+ 9"%" #(:#?:()"& ?+.0D ( *$&.H"& G"%+.$0 $' )-" #(%/$0()"
to illustrate
Fig. 37. Atmospheric carbon dioxide for the past 60 M years.

Age (Myr ago)

greenhouse gases. The total carbon content)7does not change
"1,(0+.$0 through
'$% )-" ,(+) time
<= 45%6 >" (hence,
0$)" )-() the cycle),
)-" 0()?%"the$'what
cyclic changes
)-" ,@A! BB
nature are
C##of%":().$0+-.,
the movement "I?.:./%.( ,%"+"0)"& .0 %"'6 JJ6 K,$#-+ (+ '$% L.D6 B; F67 F:.D$#"0"6
Carbon stored in Adapted from Pearson & Palmer (2000).
its phases & the amount stored & transfered the
from one reservoir to the other (land, biota, water, air).
of carbon. Adapted
(Source: from
Modified from

Oligo-
*"(0+ )-() (0(:5).#(: "%%$%+ %"+?:) .0 *?#- :(%D"% ?0#"%)(.0)."+ .0 )-" #(:#?:()"& ! ()

cene
atmosphere EF< .
Botkin & Keller, 2011. G. Lambert, La Recherche 30 18

Cenozoic
[1987]:782–83, with some data
from R. Houghton, Bulletin of the which is 5X times higher than the
From a long-term perspective (i.e. different furtherpback in
CO2 (p.p.m.) time).Society
In of America CO2 radiative presentforcing (W m–2) & Palmer, 2000).
(Pearson Benthic δ18O (‰)
Peri od

Palaeogene
Ecological
Pli.P Epoch

40
74, no. 4 [1993]: 355–356, and

Eocene
geologic time scale), the Earth’s general, they
1,000verify2,000that warmer
Er a

0 3,000 4,000 215 220Since 225 about230 24 235M years 3.0ago,2.0 it appear1.0 0 –1.0
R. Houghton, Tellus 55B, no. 2
climates 2.6 MCarbonyearsstored the actually 0
agoinwere climates
Carbon stored arein the
to be expected with and IPCC, The to have remained below 4500 ppm Northern
[2003]: 378–390), &
land biota, rocks, soil, ocean biota, water, Hemisphere
mostly warmer than todayfuels& increased greenhousePhysical gas Science Basis: Working 50
and fossil and sediment
Group I. Contribution to the Fourth
were more stable than before. Tectonicglaciation
associated with higher CO2 levels. In 10 concentrations. processes such as CO2 outgassing Antarctic Expansion of East
Neogene

Assessment Report [New York:

Miocene

Palaeo-
ice sheet
(b) that sense, they have certain

cene
Cambridge University Press, 2007].) from ocean ridges, volcanoes &3
60
similarities with the anticipated future Atmospheric CO2 concentrations metamorphic belts climate &Mid-Miocene
increased
optimum carbonEarly Miocene
20
climate change (although the global burial:"G":+
reached more than 2,000 ppm from!"#$%& * E(%/$0 &.$1.&" may have been
(0& E"0$M$.# responsible
#:.*()" #-(0D"6 to .+ #$0G"%)"&
8-" !EF %"#$%& glaciation $/+"%G().$0+ +?
Age (Myr ago)

<

biology & geography were increasingly )$ %(&.().G" '$%#.0Dthe

about 60 to 52 M years ago (Fig. 37), N( *"(+?%" $' D:$/(: 9(%*.0DO ?+.0D )-" "I?().$0 $' P."-: (0&
fluctuations. '%$* ( #$*/.0(
Oligo-
cene

JS Major ice growth

Q.#R.0+$0 6 8-" /"0)-.# '$%(*.0.'"% ! F ).*" +"%."+ .+ ( +*$$)-"& %"#$%& $' *(05
BT
+)",+ N0?*/"%"
30 on Antarctica
39
Cenozoic

2
)*+ © 2000 Macmillan Magazines
Palaeogene

40 First
Eocene

Early mid-Eocene ice?

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (over past 900,000
cooling years) 1
15.4 HOW MIGHT THE EARTH’S 17
Early Eocene

Average surface temperature (°C)

Average surface temperature (°F)

50
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shifting tectonic plates, & changes in the global air & ocean AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
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In thinking about climateThe change, it is isvery important by to
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circulation patterns. earth’s climate also affected 15.0 c

distinguish weather and climate. Weather
large areas of ice that reflect incoming solar energy & helpcon-
between FIGURE 14.8 15.18 B Over the past 900,000 years, the average global at- ra
sists ofcool the atmosphere
short-term changesas well
in as varying concentrations
atmospheric variablesofsuch
the mospheric temperature near the earth’s surface has fluctuated widely.
greenhouse gases found in the atmosphere. 14.6
as the temperature, precipitation, wind, and barometric This graph is based on a body of scientific evidence that contains
14.4
gaps, but the data clearly indicate general trends. Question: What d
pressure in a given area over a period of hours or days. By
How has the Earth’s climate changed in the past? Over the are two14.2conclusions you can draw from this graph? e
contrast, climate is determined by the average weather
past 900,000 years, the Earth experienced prolonged periods
conditions of the earth or of awarming
particular area, especially 14.0
Compiled by the authors using data from Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Intergovernmental a
of considerable atmospheric & atmospheric cooling Panel on Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, National Aeronautics and Space Adminis-
temperature
that led toand precipitation,
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(Fig. 38A). These periods cycles
of atofleast 13.8
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three freezing
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are knownofas years,
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fe
World (between ice ages) periods.
Meteorological Society. Scientists have used long- 13.4 (F
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
term measurements of atmospheric temperature and pre- continents moving slowly atop shifting tectonic plates (see tr
For roughly 10,000 years, we live in an interglacial period with Year
cipitation to divide the earth into various climate zones Figure 4.D, p. 76), impacts by large meteors, the planet’s ta
a fairly stable climate based on a generally steady global
(see Figure
average 7.2, p. 131).
surface temperature (imagine living in an ice world). wobbly orbit around
Fig. 38. A. Changes
FIGURE 15.19 in the Earth’sthe
Average global sun,
average and
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temperature
atmospheric that
in the
temperature thenear
past 900,000earththeis m
years. The Earth’s temperature has fluctuated wildly from cold (glacial) to warm
During any period
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given area tilted
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1880–[Link]. The
Question: earth’s climate
What are
(interglacial) periods. At present, we are in the interglacial period. The last is
two also affected
conclusions in
of the population
planet, thereto grow as agriculture
will often be developed,
hotter years & later
andas cooler
cities you interglacial,
by global
can drawabout
air 125,000
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circulation
this ago, actually
graph? patterns has a temperature
(see Figure higher than
7.3,thep. 132),
years, grew. For the past
and wetter years1,000
andyears,
driertheyears,
average as temperature
weather oftenof present by 1-2°C (NOAA). B. The average surface temperature from 1880-2013.
large areas of ice (Core Case Study) that reflect thisincoming
the atmosphere near the earth’s surface has remained fairly Compiled byhas
The rise the accelerated
authors usingvery
datarecently
from Goddard Institute
since 1970. for Space
Based Studies,
on current Intergovernmental
data, rate o
fluctuates widely from day to day and from year to year. Panel
solaron Climate
of acceleration
energy Change, Nationalhelp
is unprecented
and Academy
in of Sciences,
the Earth’s
to National
history. the
cool Adapted Aeronautics
from Miller & and Space
atmosphere, Adminis-
varying
stable. But it began to rise during the 19th & 20th centuries tration, National
Spoolman Center for Atmospheric Research, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
(2015). e
Climate scientists
when look athuman
the expanding data population
on the normally fluctuating
cleared large areas of concentrations of the greenhouse gases found in the atmo-
Administration.
ti
weather conditions for the earth as a whole and for par- sphere, and occasional changes in ocean currents (see Fig-
ticular40areas of the earth to see if there has been a general U
ure 7.5, p. 133).
studies indicates (N
rise or fall in measurements such as average temperature Over the pastthat 900,000risingyears,
inputsthe of atmosphere
greenhousehas gases from
expe-
or precipitation over a period of at least 30 years. This is human
riencedactivities
climate change are overwhelming
as a result ofthe combined
prolonged effects
periods of of
jo
forests & grasslands, which had been removing CO2 from the If polar regions receive more precipitation from warmer air
atmosphere, & burned fossil fuels at steadily increasing rates, carrying more moisture, the increasing snowpack & ice
which added CO2 to the atmosphere. Most of the recent buildup could reflect solar energy away from Earth’s surface,
overall rapid rise in the global average atmospheric causing cooling.
temperature on land has taken place since 1978 (Fig. 38B).
Rising inputs of greenhouse gases from human activities are Increases in water evaporation with warming from the ocean &
overwhelming the combined effects of natural factors that led the land could lead to cloudier conditions (the water vapor
to climate change in the past. Past temperature changes & condenses), & the clouds would reflect more sunlight & cool
the resulting changes in climate took place over periods of the surface.
thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Current climate
change is taking place within several decades—many times
faster than past climate changes caused by natural factors. Possible Positive Feedback Loops for
Thus the problem we face is very rapid climate change Climate Change
caused mostly by human activities.
The warming Earth increases water evaporation from the

Climate Change &

oceans, adding water vapor to the atmosphere. Water vapor
is a major greenhouse gas that, as it increases, causes
additional warming. But if more clouds form from the
Feedback Loops increased water vapor & more solar radiation is reflected, this
would cause cooling as discussed with negative feedback
above. Thus water vapor is associated with both positive &
negative feedback. This makes study of clouds & global
Possible Negative Feedback Loops climate change complex.
As global warming occurs, the warmth & additional carbon
The warming Earth could melt a large amount of permafrost at
dioxide could stimulate algae growth. This, in turn, could
high latitudes, which would in turn release the greenhouse gas
absorb CO2, reducing the concentration of CO2 in the
methane, a by-product of decomposition of organic material
atmosphere & cooling Earth’s climate.
in the melted permafrost layer. This would cause additional
warming.
Increased CO2 concentration with warming might similarly
stimulate growth of land plants, leading to increased CO2
Replacing some of the summer snowpack or glacial ice with
absorption & reducing the greenhouse effect (Fig. 39).

41

darker vegetation & soil surfaces decreases the albedo

(reflectivity) increasing the absorption of solar energy, further
warming surface. This is a powerful positive feedback
explaining, in part, why the Arctic is warming faster than at
lower latitudes.

In warming climates, people use more air-conditioning & thus

more fossil fuels. The resulting increase in CO2 could lead to
additional global warming.

Since negative & positive feedback can occur simultaneously

in the atmosphere, the dynamics of climate change are all the
more complex. Research is ongoing to better understand
negative feedback processes associated with clouds & their
water vapor.

Fig. 39. Studies have shown that increased concentrations of CO2 increase
photosynthesis, spurring plant growth. Green leaves use energy from sunlight
through photosynthesis to chemically combine CO2 drawn in from the air with
water & nutrients tapped from the ground to produce sugars, which are the main
source of food, fiber & fuel for life on Earth. As more plants take up CO2, the
enhanced greenhouse effect will be reduced. This creates a negative feedback loop
on climate change. Photo by CLRingor.

42
Potential Rise in Sea Level

Environmental, Sea level rises from two causes: (1) Liquid water expands as it
warms; & (2) ice sheets on land that melt increase the amount
of water in the oceans. Since the end of the last ice age, the
Ecological, & Human sea level has risen approximately 23 cm per century.
Climatologists forecast that global warming could about
Effects of Global double that rate. Various models predict that the sea level may
rise anywhere from 20 cm to approximately 2 m in the next

Warming century; the most likely rise is probably 20–40 cm.

About half the people on Earth live in a coastal zone, & about
50 M people each year experience flooding due to storm
Changes in River Flow surges. As the sea level rises & the population increases,
more & more people become vulnerable to coastal flooding.
With a continuation of global warming, melting of glacial ice & The rising sea level particularly threatens island nations such
reductions in snow cover are anticipated to accelerate as the Philippines, & could worsen coastal erosion on open
throughout the 21st century. This is also projected to reduce beaches, making structures more vulnerable to damage from
water availability & hydropower potential, & change the waves. This could lead to further investments to protect cities
seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from in the coastal zone by constructing seawalls, dikes, & other
major mountain ranges (e.g., Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), structures to control erosion. Groundwater supplies for
where more than 1/6 of the world population currently lives. coastal communities could also be threatened by saltwater
intrusion. In short, coastal erosion is a difficult problem that is
Rainfall will likely increase, but there will be less snowpack very expensive to deal with. In many cases, it is best to allow
with warming. Runoff, will be more rapid than if snow slowly erosion to take place naturally where feasible & defend against
melts. As a result, reservoirs will fill sooner & more water will coastal erosion only where absolutely necessary.
escape to the ocean. Among the consequences are flooding
& loss of freshwater resource. Lower runoff is projected for A map of regional mean sea level trends from Jan 1993 to Mar
much of Mexico, South America, southern Europe, India, 2020 is shown in Fig. 40. Although the global trend indicates a
southern Africa, & Australia. rise in the mean level of the oceans, there are marked regional
differences that vary between -10 & +10 mm/year.

43

-10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 mm/yr

Fig. 40. Spatial distribution of the trends of sea level observations in the global ocean (in mm/yr) measured using satellite altimeter since January 1993 up to March 2020. The
sea level varies around the globe - just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is not flat, & that the surface of the sea changes at different rates around
the globe. What is alarming is that sea levels in the Philippines have risen at a rate of 2.5-5.5 mm/yr. Image from the European Commission Copernicus Climate Change Service
(C3S) & by the Copernicus Marine Service Information. No Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction was applied on the altimeter data.

44
 There are more consequences than just sea level rise to due
Glaciers & Sea Ice land & sea ice melting. Differences in salinity & temperature
impact global ocean circulation. These variations in ocean
A glacier is a large, perennial accumulation of crystalline ice, temperature & salinity can disrupt & threaten marine species
snow, rock, sediment, & often liquid water that originates on that are dependent on the ocean due to the ocean being
land & moves down slope under the influence of its own delicate to change. Fresh water is less dense than salt water &
weight & gravity. Sea ice forms from salty ocean water, warm water is less dense than cold water; these differences
whereas ice sheets & glaciers form from fresh water or snow. cause circulation in the ocean which is referred to
as thermohaline circulation (Fig. 41). If global warming
As ice melts & becomes water, the volume of water gets results in the melting of glaciers & sea ice, the influx of warm
displaced relative to the volume of water it would contribute freshwater onto the sea surface could block the formation of
as melting occurs. Thus, when sea ice melts, there is no sea ice, disrupting the sinking of cold, salty water. This
change in sea level rise. This is due to Archimedes' principle sequence of events could slow or even stop the thermohaline
which states that if a body is immersed in a fluid, that body is circulation, which could result in potentially drastic
lifted up by a buoyant forces equal to the weight of the fluid temperature changes in Europe.
that is displaced. With land ice, the ice was not displacing any
water. When the land ice melts, additional water is added into Not all melting of glacial ice is due to global warming. For
the ocean, causing the sea level to rise. Global sea ice on example, the study of decrease in the glacier ice on
average covers nearly 25 M km2 while ice sheets & glaciers Kilimanjaro in Africa shows that the primary cause of the ice
cover approximately 15 M km2 (UC). loss is not melting. Since they were first observed in 1912, the
glaciers of Kilimanjaro have decreased in area by about 80%.
The intensity of sea level rise depends on the quantity of melt The ice is disappearing not from warmer temperatures at the
occurring. For example, if the entire West Antarctic ice sheet top of the mountain, which are almost always below freezing,
melted, the sea level would increase by 5 m. To put that into but because less snowfall is occurring & ice is being depleted
perspective, a 1 m level sea rise would displace 100 M people by solar radiation & sublimation (ice is transformed from solid
who live along coastal lines. Greenland & Antarctica state to water vapor without melting). More arid conditions in
combined, contain about 75% of the world's fresh water, the past century led to air that contained less moisture & thus
which is enough to raise sea level by over 75 m, if all the ice favored sublimation. This may be due to land use changes
reached the oceans (UC). from native vegetation to agriculture. Much of the ice depletion
had occurred by the mid-1950s.

45

Diffuse warm & cold Warm north equatorial

Cold, salty water water upwells in north current flows at the
North downwells in north Pacific surface inthe central
Atlantic Atlantic Pacific
Drift

Gulf Stream

Warm surface waters

flow in south equatorial Cold dense water
current flows north deep
into Pacific

Cold dense water moves Combined mass of cold

Diffuse upwelling
deep in the Atlantic water moves slowly
occurs in the
deep around Antarctica
Indian Ocean
Atlantic water is joined
here by more cold Warm equatorial surface
water from near current flows through
Antarctica Indonesian archipelago

Fig. 41. Thermohaline circulation is a deep ocean circulation that takes about 1,600 years to complete. These deep-ocean currents are driven by differences in the water's density,
which is controlled by temperature (thermo) & salinity (haline). In the Earth's polar regions ocean water gets very cold, forming sea ice. As a consequence, the surrounding seawater
gets saltier, because when sea ice forms, the salt is left behind. As the seawater gets saltier, its density increases, & it starts to sink. Surface water is pulled in to replace the sinking
water, which in turn eventually becomes cold & salty enough to sink. This initiates the circulation. The heat released to the atmosphere from the warm water keeps Northern Europe
5°C—10°C warmer than if the oceanic conveyor belt were not present. If glaciers & sea ice will melt, the influx of warm freshwater onto the sea surface could block the formation of
sea ice, disrupting the sinking of cold, salty water. This sequence of events could slow or even stop the thermohaline circulation. Image from Pearson Education (2009).

46
Changes in Biological Diversity
Some of the greatest uncertainties about the consequence of
global warming have to do with changes in biodiversity. This is
because organisms are complex & so their responses to
change can be complex. Warming is one change, but others
—such as availability of nutrients, relations with other
organisms (predator & prey), & competition for habitat &
niches in ecosystems—also affect biodiversity. Because we
lack adequate theoretical models to link specific climate
changes to specific changes in overall biodiversity, our best
insights come from empirical evidence. Surprisingly few
Fig. 42. Bramble Cay melomys, the Great Barrier Reef’s only endemic mammal is
species went extinct as a result of climate change during the
now extinct due to human-induced climate change (IUCN). Photo by Cameron De
past 2.5 M years, even though the amount of changes was Jong/[Link]
about the same as that forecast for today & the next few
decades. Warming will certainly change some areas, & plants Corals form one of the most biodiverse ecosystems, yet they
& animals will experience stress. Many will adapt, as are among the most rapidly declining species groups due
apparently occurred during the Medieval Warm Period. For to mass bleaching (Fig. 43), disease & die-offs caused
example, polar bears were undoubtedly stressed during this by rising ocean temperatures, as well ocean acidification.
period but did not become extinct.

In contrast, climate change is currently affecting 19% of

Agricultural Productivity
species listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List of
Threatened Species, increasing the likelihood of their Globally, agricultural production will likely increase in some
extinction. The Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola) is regions & decline in others. In the Northern Hemisphere, some
the first mammal reported to have gone extinct as a direct of the more northern areas, such as Canada & Russia, may
result of climate change (Fig. 42). Previously found only on the become more productive. But Canadian soils are thinner &
island of Bramble Cay in Great Barrier Reef, its habitat was less fertile therefore, a climate shift could have serious
destroyed by rising sea levels. negative effects on midlatitude food production. Meanwhile,
lands in the southern part of the Northern Hemisphere may
become more arid. Prolonged drought as a result of future

47

thinking about “some aspects of human health, such as

excess heat-related mortality in Europe, changes in infectious
disease vectors in parts of Europe, & earlier onset of &
increases in seasonal production of allergenic pollen in
Northern Hemisphere high & mid-latitudes”. Some have
suggested that global warming might increase the incidence
of malaria. However, this has been shown not to be the case
in past & present circumstances because temperature alone is
not a good correlate for malaria. The same has been found for
tick-borne encephalitis, another disease that some thought
might increase from global warming.

Dealing with Projected

Climate Change Is
Fig. 43. Mass bleaching of branching coral (Acropora sp.) at Heron Island, Great
Barrier Reef. When water is too warm, corals will expel the algae (zooxanthellae)
living in their tissues. Without the algae, the coral loses its major source of food,

Difficult
turns white or very pale, & is more susceptible to disease. When a coral bleaches, it
is not dead. Corals can survive a bleaching event, but they are under more stress &
are subject to mortality. Photo by J. Roff/Wikimedia Commons.

The problem is global. Dealing with this threat will require

warming as evidently occurred during the Medieval warming
unprecedented & prolonged international cooperation.
period with loss of agricultural productivity could be one of the
serious impacts of global warming.
The problem is a long-term political issue. Climate
change is now happening & is already having harmful impacts,
Human Health Effects but it is not viewed as an urgent problem by most voters &
elected officials. And most of the people who will likely suffer
Like other biological & ecological responses, the effects of the most serious harm from projected climate change during
global warrning on human health are difficult to forecast. The the latter half of this century have not yet been born.
IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report is cautious
about these possible effects, stating only that one needs to be The projected harmful & beneficial impacts of climate

48
change are not spread evenly. For example, higher-latitude
nations such as Canada, Russia, & New Zealand may
temporarily have higher crop yields, fewer deaths in winter, &
Climate Change in the
lower heating bills. But other, mostly poor nations could see
more flooding and higher death tolls.
Philippines
There are several climate parameters that can be measured to
Proposed solutions, such as sharply reducing or
document climate change. Some of these are temperature
phasing out the use of fossil fuels, are controversial
(mean, maximum, & minimum), hot days/cold nights, &
because they could disrupt economies & lifestyles & threaten
intensity & frequecy of rainfall & tropical cyclones. According
the profits of the economically a& politically powerful fossil-fuel
to the our national weather bureau PAGASA, the Philippines
companies.
has exhibited increasing temperatures. The observed mean
temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000
The projected effects are uncertain. Current climate normal values) indicate an increase of 0.648°C or an average
models lead to a wide range in the projected temperature of 0.0108°C/yr-increase between 1951-2010.
increase & sea-level rise. Thus, there is considerable
uncertainty over whether the harmful changes will be
moderate or catastrophic. This makes it difficult to plan for
avoiding or managing risk, & it highlights the urgent need for
more scientific research to reduce the uncertainty in climate
models.

There are two basic approaches to dealing with the projected

harmful effects of global climate change. One, called
mitigation, is to try to slow it down in order to avoid its most
harmful effects. The other approach, called adaptation, is to
recognize that our current failure to sharply reduce our
contribution to atmospheric warming means that some
climate change is unavoidable & that we will now have to try
to adapt to some of its harmful effects. Most analysts call for a
Fig. 44. Observed mean annual temperature anomalies in the Philippines between
combination of both approaches. 1951-2010 (PAGASA).

49

If we look at the historical occurrences of tropical cyclones,

PAGASA records show that an average of 20 tropical
cyclones form &/or cross the Philippine Area of Responsibility
per year between 1948-2010 (Fig. 46). There is a high
variability over the decades but there is no indication of
increase in the frequency. In relation to ENSO, however, there
is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with
maximum sustained winds of greater than 150 km/h & above
(Typhoon category) during El Niño event for the period
1971-2010 (Fig. 47). The number of tropical cyclones that
B pass through Luzon, Visayas, & Mindanao were also
examined between 1951-2000 (Fig. 48). Looking at the
frequency over 30-year running mean, the data shows a slight
increase in the Visayas between 1971- 2000 compared with
1951-1980 & 1960-1990 periods.

Fig. 45. Observed mean annual maximum (or daytime, A) & minimum (or night time,
B) temperature anomalies in the Philippines between 1951-2010. Anomalies were
compared with the 1971-2000 mean temperature values (PAGASA).

The maximum (daytime) temperature increased by about

0.36°C between 1951-2010 (60 years) (Fig. 45A). The
minimum (night time) temperature has also increased, albeit
faster, by 1.0°C within the same period (Fig. 45B). This Fig. 46. Frequency of tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility
increase in temperatures is evident by the start of the 1990s. from 1948-2010 (PAGASA).

50
 To detect trends in extreme daily temperature, PAGASA
developed & used indices. PAGASA looked at the number of
days with maximum temperature above the 1971-2000 mean
99th percentile all over the country. These are called the hot-
days index. They also looked at the number of days with
minimum temperature below the 1971-2000 mean 1st
percentile. These are called the cold-nights index. Analysis of
the hot-days & cold-days indices show there are statistically
significant increasing number of hot days & decreasing
number of cool nights (Fig. 49). However, it is worth noting
that some areas exhibited a significantly decreasing number of
Fig. 47. Frequency of tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility
hot days such as Quezon, Albay, Sorsogon, Capiz, &
during El Niño, La Niña, & neutral years between 1971-2010 (PAGASA).
Zamboanga del Norte. Similarly, Pangasinan & Zambales, had
a siginficantly increasing cold days within the same period.

In the case of extreme daily rainfall, the overall trends of

increases or decreases are not statistically significant from
1971-2000, although, the data show a general increasing
pattern (not significant) for both rainfall intensity & frequency.
Also, there have been changes in extreme rain events in
certain areas in the Philippines (Fig. 50). For example,
significantly decreasing rainfall intensity was recorded in
Busuanga, northern Palawan. In contrast, the rainfall intensity
was significantly increasing in Benguet, Iloilo, & Leyte. For
rainfall frequency, northern Palawan also exhibited a significant
increase. Meanwhile, the rainfall frequency in Ilocos Norte,
Oriental Mindoro, Iloilo, & Leyte decreased significantly.

Fig. 48. Decadal changes in tropical cyclone frequencies in Luzon, Visayas, & It is clear that based on the climate parameters analyzed,
Mindanao between 1971-2000 (PAGASA).
climate change is not the same throughout the country &
therefore, its impacts will also be different locally.

51

Fig. 49. Increases & decreases in the number of hot days & cold nights in the Philippines from 1951-2008 (PAGASA).

52
Rainfall Rainfall
Intensity Frequency

Fig. 50. Increases & decreases in the rainfall intensity & frequency in the Philippines from 1951-2008. Index used for rainfall intensity is the the amount of rainfall exceeding the top
four events of the year. Index used for rainfall frequency is the number of days with rainfall exceeding the top four events during the year (PAGASA).

53

Summing Up
The atmosphere, a layer of gases that envelops Earth, is a effect (more CO2) causing global warming of the lower
dynamic system that is constantly changing. A great number of atmosphere.
complex chemical reactions take place in the atmosphere, &
atmospheric circulation takes place on a variety of scales, Human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels & the
producing the world’s weather & climates. widespread clearing & burning of forests for planting crops
have contributed to higher levels of greenhouse gases in the
The difference between weather, climate variability & climate atmosphere. This has contributed to increased atmospheric
change is a matter of time. Weather pertains to the changes in warming, which in turn is projected to result in possibly
the condition of the atmosphere within hours, days, months; disruptive climate change during this century. The current
climate variability within months, years, decades; & climate amount of CO2 in the troposphere is believed to be
change within decades, centuries, & beyond. unprecedented.

Many complex positive feedback & negative feedback cycles The effects of climate change could include rapid melting of
affect the atmosphere. Natural cycles, solar forcing, aerosol land-& sea-based ice, worsening drought, rising sea levels,
forcing, particulate forcing from volcanic eruptions, & ENSO declining biodiversity, & severe threats to human health &
events also affect the temperature of Earth. economies. Many of these effects could further accelerate
climate change in worsening spirals of change.
Major climate changes have occurred throughout the Earth’s
history. Of special interest to us is that periodic glacial (cooling) As the human population increases & standards of living rise,
& interglacial (warming) episodes have characterized the Earth the demand for energy increases; &, as long as fossil fuels are
since the evolution of our species. used, greenhouse gases will also increase.

Greenhouse gases keep our planet livable by holding onto Global warming is a global problem.
some of Earth’s heat energy so that it does not all escape into
space. This heat trapping is known as the greenhouse effect. According to PAGASA, the Philippines has exhibited increasing
However, human activities have enhanced the greenhouse temperatures of 0.648°C or an average of 0.0108°C/yr
between 1951-2010.

54
Study Questions

What are the conditions needed How do oceanic, terrestrial, &

for the formation of a tropical atmospheric processes affect What drives climate?
cyclone? weather & climate?

What are some of the major

What are the major climate What are the effects of global
negative/positive feedback cycles
changes that have occurred warming in the environment,
that might increase/decrease
throughout the Earth’s history? society, & economy?
global warming?

55

Fig. 51. Aftermath of Super Typhoon Yolanda in Bantayan Island, Cebu.

Photos by CLRingor.

Learning Activities
Reflection Paper
Write a reflection paper about this topic discussed in the class
& in this module. Write what you used to think about or know,
what you know now, and what you are not sure of or what you
want to learn more. Be specific.

This paper is worth 5 points and should be done individually.

Your answer should not exceed 300 words. Save your file in
pdf with this format SURNAME_Reflection [Link]. Submit
in the designated dropbox in UVLE.

Climate in the Philippines

Go to PAGASA website [Link]
climate/climate-data. Download climatological normals data
from the different places in the Philippines, ideally from north to
south. Compare the rainfall & temperature of the different
places in the Philippines. How do they differ? How do the
rainfall & temperature in each location influence agriculture or
other livelihoods?

This activity is not compulsory but you are strongly encouraged

to do it.

56
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