Probability and Types of
probability
Presented by 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙥 – 1
Rabail Nasir
Misbha Ramzan
Rumaisa Hafeez
Nazia Sabir
Rabia Zulfiqar
Rizwan Ullah
Mehwish Asi
Sundas Sawera
Sawaira Hayat
POBABILITY
It is a fundamental concept in statistics. Probability is a measure of the
likelihood or chance of an event occurring. It's a numerical value
between 0 and 1, where:-
0 represents an impossible event
1 represents a certain event
Values between 0 and 1 represent the probability of the event
occurring
Probability is often expressed as a decimal or fraction, and it's used in
various fields, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, and
science.
Probability cont…..
The formula to find probability is
Probability = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible
outcomes
P(A) = n(A) / n(S)
Where:-
P(A) is the probability of event A
n(A) is the number of favorable outcomes (outcomes that meet the condition)
n(S) is the total number of possible outcomes
Probability cont….
A classic example of probability is Coin Toss
When you flip a fair coin, there are two possible outcomes:
1. Heads (H) 2. Tails (T)
The probability of getting heads (or tails) is:P(H) = 1/2 or 50%
This example illustrates a basic probability concept, where the probability
of an event is calculated as the number of favorable outcomes (1, getting
heads) divided by the total number of possible outcomes (2, heads or tails).
Types of probability
There are three main types of probability
1. Theoretical Probability: based on mathematical calculations and
assumptions.
2. Experimental Probability: based on actual experiments or trials.
3. Conditional Probability: based on the occurrence of one event
affecting the probability of another event.
Theoretical Probability
Theoretical probability is a mathematical approach to calculating probability based on the number
of favorable outcomes and the total number of possible outcomes.
Example: Rolling a Die : When rolling a fair six-sided die, there are 6 possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, and 6.
To find the probability of rolling a 4:
Number of favorable outcomes (rolling a 4) = 1
Total number of possible outcomes = 6
P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 1/6≈ 0.17 (or 17%)This means that the probability of rolling a 4 on a fair
six-sided die is approximately 17%.
Experimental probability
Experimental probability is a method of calculating probability based on repeated trials
or experiments.
Example: Coin Toss: Experiment Suppose you flip a coin 100 times and record the
Results: Heads: 55 times Tails: 45 times
To find the experimental probability of getting heads:
Number of times heads occurred = 55
Total number of trials = 100
P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 55/100= 0.55 (or 55%)This means that, based on this experiment,
the probability of getting heads is approximately 55%.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that
another event has occurred.
Example: Drawing Cards Suppose you draw a card from a standard deck
of 52 cards.
Event A: The card is a King
Event B: The card is a face card (King, Queen, Jack)
P(A|B) = Number of Kings / Total number of face cards= 4/12= 1/3≈
0.33 (or 33%)This means that, given the card is a face card, the
probability it's a King is approximately 33%.
Types of events in probability
In probability, events can be classified into several types:
1. Independent Events: Events that do not affect each other's probability.
2. Dependent Events: Events where the occurrence of one event affects the probability of another
event.
3. Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot occur together (e.g., rolling a 3 or a 4 on a
single die roll).
4. Exhaustive Events: Events that cover all possible outcomes (e.g., rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 on
a single die roll).
5. Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same probability of occurring (e.g., rolling a fair
die).
6. Complementary Events: Events where one event is the exact opposite of another event (e.g.,
rolling an even number vs. rolling an odd number).
These types of events are important in probability theory and are used to calculate probabilities
and make predictions.
Independent events
Independent events are events that do not affect each other's probability. The occurrence of one
event does not influence the probability of the other event.
Example: Coin Toss and Die RollTossing a coin and rolling a die are independent events. The
outcome of the coin toss does not affect the outcome of the die roll.
Characteristics:
1. The probability of one event does not change based on the occurrence of the
other event.
2. The events do not influence each other.
Formula: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)Where P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of the
independent events A and B.
Dependent events
Dependent events are events where the occurrence of one event affects the probability of another
event.
Example: Drawing Cards Drawing two cards from a deck without replacement. The probability
of drawing a specific card on the second draw depends on the card drawn on the first draw.
Characteristics:
1. The probability of one event changes based on the occurrence of the other event.
2. The events influence each other.
Formula:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)Where P(B|A) is the conditional probability of event B given that
event A has occurred.
Mutually exclusive events
Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur together. If one event
happens, the other event cannot happen.
Example: Rolling a DieRolling a 3 and rolling a 4 on a single die roll are mutually
exclusive events. You can either roll a 3 or a 4, but not both at the same time.
Characteristics:
1. The events cannot occur simultaneously.
2. The probability of both events occurring together is zero.
Formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)Where P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of the
mutually exclusive events A and B.
Exhaustive Events
Exhaustive events are events that cover all possible outcomes. In other words,
at least one of the events must occur.
Example: Rolling a DieThe events "rolling a 1", "rolling a 2", "rolling a 3",
"rolling a 4", "rolling a 5", and "rolling a 6" are exhaustive because one of
these outcomes must occur when rolling a fair six-sided die.
Characteristics:1. At least one of the events must occur.2. The events cover all
possible outcomes.
Formula:P(A or B or C or ...) = 1Where A, B, C, ... are the exhaustive events.
Equally likely events
Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring.
Example: Coin TossWhen tossing a fair coin, the events "heads" and "tails" are equally likely,
each with a probability of 1/2 or 50%.
Characteristics:1. Each event has the same probability.2. No event is more likely to occur than
another.
Example: Rolling a Fair DieThe events "rolling a 1", "rolling a 2", ..., "rolling a 6" are equally
likely, each with a probability of 1/6.
Complementary events
Complementary events are events where one event is the exact opposite of
another event. If one event occurs, the other event does not occur.
Example: Coin TossThe events "heads" and "tails" are complementary events.
Characteristics:1. The events are mutually exclusive.2. The events are
exhaustive (one of them must occur).
Formula:P(A) + P(A') = 1Where P(A) is the probability of event A, and P(A')
is the probability of its complement (not A).
Permutation and Combination
Permutation Combination
A permutation is an arrangement of items in A combination is a selection of items without
a specific order. regard to order.
Order matters Used when the sequence is Order does not matter Used when you’re just
important (e.g., ranking first, second, and choosing groups or
third in a trial) Example in biostatistics:If you’re selecting 3
Example in biostatistics:If you're assigning patients from a group of 10 to receive a new
treatments A, B, and C to three different treatment, and the order doesn’t matter, you'd
patients, the order in which they receive the use a combination.
treatments matters (patient 1 gets A, patient 2
gets B, etc.).
probability mass function (PMF)
A probability mass function (PMF) is a function that assigns a probability to each possible value
of a discrete random variable.
Example: Rolling a DieLet's consider a random variable X representing the outcome of rolling a
fair six-sided die. The PMF for X would be:
P(X = 1) = 1/6 P(X = 2) = 1/6
P(X = 3) = 1/6 P(X = 4) = 1/6
P(X = 5) = 1/6 P(X = 6) = 1/6
Characteristics:
1. The PMF assigns a non-negative probability to each possible value.
2. The probabilities sum to 1.
The PMF provides a way to describe the probability distribution of a discrete random variable.
Probability Density Function (PDF)
A probability density function (PDF) is a function that describes the probability distribution of a
continuous random variable.
Characteristics:
1. The PDF is a non-negative function.
2. The area under the PDF curve represents probability.3. The total area under the curve is 1.
Example:The PDF for a uniform distribution between 0 and 1 is:f(x) = 1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1f(x) = 0,
otherwise.
Purpose:The PDF is used to calculate probabilities and understand the distribution of continuous
random variables.
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